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#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
On the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, the market holds its breath! Tomorrow (November 6) at 9:30 PM, the October US nonfarm employment data will be released with great impact.
📊 Preview of data undercurrents:
Small nonfarm exceeds expectations: October ADP new jobs recorded 86,000, significantly above expectations, with transportation and healthcare as the main drivers.
Job openings rebound: September JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 million, a four-month high.
Stalemate of low hiring + low layoffs: Layoffs remain at historic lows, but companies are cautious in hiring. How "resilient" is the labor market?
🔥 Core question: Is a December rate hike a done deal?
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has surged to nearly 80%!
September nonfarm increased by only 29,000, while October market forecast has moderately rebounded to 65,000. If tomorrow's nonfarm data significantly exceeds expectations (for example, breaking 100,000+), combined with a rebound in wage growth, it would be like adding fuel to the fire for a December rate hike; conversely, if the data remains weak, the Fed might still hold some "dovish" breathing room.
👇 Tomorrow's nonfarm, which side are you on?
Strong data, a 25bp rate hike in December is inevitable!
Moderate data, rate hike expectations remain but the market will price it in advance (good news already priced in) At the price range of 84,000, there are stacked 869,000 bitcoins.
No other price level in the entire market is more crowded than this.
Bitcoin's ledger is public: anyone can check who bought at what price.
People who bought coins in the past six months were almost all making money in early October,
because the price was 86,500.
By the end of the month, it dropped to 77,000, a nearly 10,000 drop in one month.
In thirty days, more than 60% of the same group turned into losses.
People at a loss generally do not sell.
They are waiting for one price: to return to the day they bought.
And this price mostly falls between 80,000 and 86,000.
Bitcoin is now around 80,000,
just stuck below the buying cost of this group.
In the first half of October, the price touched above 84,000 several times but never held.
So don’t guess whether it can reach 85,000.
Just watch one thing:
After breaking above 80,000, does the trading volume keep up?
If the trading volume keeps up, it means there are really people putting money to take these chips that want to be sold.
If the trading volume doesn’t keep up, it’s just a surge followed by a fall.
Resistance levels are not shouted into existence; they are bought up with funds.When oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, and money dares to take risks.
On November 4th, $BZ Brent dropped 8.7% in a single day, and $BTC bounced back from about 75.7K to 80K.
The three signals I'm watching:
1️⃣ ETF funds have returned: net inflow of about $74.6 million on November 4th, ending three consecutive days of outflows
2️⃣ Shorts were liquidated: about $378 million worth of short positions were cleared in one hour
3️⃣ 10x Research believes a rebound to around 82K is possible after overselling
The market has already started to call a ceasefire, but the ceasefire itself hasn't come yet. Friday's non-farm payrolls will provide the answer.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Market Analysis: $BTC is showing bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with price trading below the short-term EMAs and struggling to regain the $80,400–$80,500 resistance zone.
A breakdown below $80,000 could open the door toward $79,500, while a recovery above $80,500 may signal renewed bullish strength.
Sellers currently have the edge, so caution is advised until a clear reversal appears.
Will $BTC break lower or reclaim resistance?
$BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 On the surface, it looks like a legal battle between WLFI and Sun Yuchen's legal team, but what is truly being repriced underneath is who can benefit from the policy dividends. Could this lawsuit quietly rewrite the strength ranking within the altcoin sector? I've read this news twice carefully. Sun Yuchen's legal team has officially filed a motion in federal court requesting sanctions against WLFI and its legal team, citing their deep ties with the Trump family. The noise is all the back-and-forth, but calmly considered, the market is trading on another level: whether the compliance narrative still deserves a premium. The valuations projects like WLFI previously received were largely built on a "sense of policy proximity." Now the opponent has dragged this line into court, turning implicit endorsement into a public dispute. What is being priced in early is the expectation of a "sure win," while the unseen risk is that if the legal process drags on, the market-making willingness within the related ecosystem will cool off first. I understand the transmission path like this: as the dispute heats up, WLFI-related narratives come under pressure, copycat altcoin projects lose a replicable template, and risk appetite shifts slightly from "storytelling" toward "looking at cash flow and real use cases." BTC and ETH layers might instead be passive beneficiaries, as funds prefer to return to large-cap assets during uncertainty. Regarding sector strength, I tend to see this more as a signal of a divergence phase—not a start, nor a distribution yet—but the inertia of "just being related means a price rise" is loosening. On the bullish side, the legal actions themselves indicate the game is moving into the open, and clearer rules are good for long-term institutional entry. On the bearish side Beginner's Diary: This week the ETF drama feels like a palace intrigue 😂
Yesterday (11/4), the US spot BTC ETF finally turned positive, with a net inflow of $74.6 million, and the ETH ETF also brought in $53 million, breaking ETH's 7-day consecutive outflow totaling $657 million.
But the most absurd part is the "internal fight": BlackRock's $IBIT saw an outflow of $201.2 million that day, with 4 consecutive outflows totaling $935.2 million; meanwhile, Fidelity's FBTC absorbed about $237 million, single-handedly covering the big brother's hole and then some 🤡
What I learned today: When looking at ETFs, don't just look at the total amount; break it down by issuer. The money might just be "changing bowls to eat from," not necessarily exiting the market.
When you usually check ETF data, do you look at total inflows or focus on IBIT?
Learning check-in, not investment advice
#USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress$BTC has a BTC address that has been dormant for three years recently transferring chips consecutively, totaling 1900 coins, all transferred to the market maker Wintermute.
These chips were credited on June 21, 2023, when the BTC price was 28,800, and this position was worth about 55 million USD, then completely dormant for 1227 days.
The first transfer occurred on the night of October 30, when Binance was hacked and BTC plunged more than five thousand dollars in a single day, transferring out 449.5 coins; just now, another 1208.5 coins were transferred out, worth nearly 97.3 million USD, also to this market maker.
Chips transferred to market makers are generally not simply locked up and held. The holder bought at 28,800 and sold above 80,000, profiting nearly 2.8 times, and specifically chose times of market volatility to sell in batches. Currently, out of the 1900 coins, only 242 remain in this wallet.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ZEC $ETH I see this as a recovery following sentiment, still one step away from trend confirmation.
Bitcoin $BTC remains above $80,000, with open interest increasing by only 0.3%. Reports suggest the rebound is mainly driven by short covering. I use three trend indicators: look at direction, see if bullish sentiment is supported; look at capital, forced short covering does not equal active position increase; look at sustainability, a one-day rebound is not conclusive.
The trend is the best friend; I wait for confirmation and don’t chase the hype. Are you currently using moving averages or volume-price combinations to judge whether this rebound can develop into a trend?At the same entrance, the second time only cost one-eighth of the money
04:00 That 623 lots pushed up to 559.4 (24h high), closed at 556.5, upper shadow 2.9 points failed to hold. 19:00 used 494 lots to push to 558.8, 20:00 in twenty minutes only used 70 lots to touch 559.08, missed by 0.34, the second time only spent one-eighth.
Nine bars all stuck between 551.4~556.9, volume 154~703 lots, total daily turnover 17,000 U, this is a shadow price not a trend.
Current price 558.64 / +5.10% / MA20 555.08, 3.5 points below. 556.9 is the opening price of the 16th, 18th, and 19th bars, tested three times without breaking.
Close above 559.42 with volume (≥300 lots), pull back to 558.2~558.6, long at 558.4, stop loss 556.2, target 564, odds 2.5;
Close below 556.9 with volume (≥300 lots), rebound to 557.6~558, short at 557.8, stop loss 559.6, target 553, odds 2.7.
Between 556.9~559.4 no movement, real pricing only at 22:30 when US stock market opens.
$MSFT
(Not investment advice, profit and loss at your own risk) Many people think that if the Republicans lose both chambers, the crypto bill is dead. My view is the opposite: the bill has a chance to advance, but don’t treat it as purely bullish to chase the rally.
With the Democrats controlling both chambers, they will use the crypto bill to negotiate with Trump, amend the bill’s provisions, check the Trump family, and at the same time court crypto users to prepare for the next election.
The bill can pass, but the version will most likely tighten regulation, not the lenient plan the market imagines.
This morning the Democrats released news about crypto legislation, which just confirmed my judgment from yesterday afternoon. The market has already priced in the “legislative expectations” in advance, the bullishness is gradually being realized, and expectations are overextended.
Don’t chase the highs, expect a peak and stagnation, play for a pullback, and manage your stop losses well.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$BTC $ETH Key variable tonight: October Nonfarm Payrolls (Beijing time November 6, 20:30)
The market expects October nonfarm payrolls to increase by 65,000, higher than September's 29,000; unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%; month-on-month wages expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%, year-on-year 2.9%. ADP private employment has already given a slightly stronger signal: October added 86,000, higher than the expected 69,000, showing the labor market still has resilience.
Scenario Condition Potential impact on BTC
🟢 Weaker employment (<50,000) Strengthens expectation of no rate hike in December US Treasury yields decline, BTC is expected to break through 82,000
🟡 Meets expectations (60,000-70,000) Maintains status quo Likely to fluctuate around 81,600
🔴 Stronger employment (>80,000) + 0.3% wages + Strengthens expectation of rate hike in December US Treasury yields and USD strengthen, BTC may retreat to test 79,000
Nonfarm payrolls are currently the only macro catalyst capable of breaking the "short-covering driven rebound" deadlock. If the data is weak, the rebound may upgrade from a "technical correction" to a "trend correction"; if strong, today's gains may face pressure to give back. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ On November 5th, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, pushing the rate to 4.00%. This is the first rate hike since August 2023, a small increase, but the direction has changed. What really deserves attention is not these 25 basis points, but the latter half of the statement.
Bailey said that unless the Iran war is resolved, this is unlikely to be the last rate hike. In other words, the entire interest rate path is tied to a conditional premise. And this rate hike itself "meets market expectations"—it’s not a surprise; consensus has quietly shifted.
The main market narrative over the past two years was "when will the rate cut cycle accelerate?" Now that narrative has been pulled back. The impact of rate hikes on crypto is actually straightforward: risk-free yields rise, discount rates go up, and the longest-duration assets are hit first; yields on pound assets increase, forcing carry trade funds to recalculate; US dollar liquidity tightens marginally, and risk appetite adjusts downward. Crypto is at the very end of this transmission chain and is the most sensitive.
So the judgment is not about these 25 basis points, but about the word "continue." If the geopolitical conflict remains unresolved, inflationary pressures won’t naturally ease, and the central bank will have no room to turn dovish. The pricing of assets like $BTC essentially discounts future liquidity, and the discount rate on that end is rising now.
One point worth pondering: the market previously anchored on "this is the last time," but the central bank clearly said "this is unlikely to be the last time." This expectation gap has not yet been fully digested, so volatility is very likely to remain high.Last night, I couldn't find any announcement explaining that surge. Today there is a press release, but the timing doesn't match.
Cap issued a press release on November 4, expanding on-chain credit to film and media financing (reposted by Business Insider Markets). The earliest timestamp is 11-04 16:08 UTC = Beijing time 00:08 on the 5th, which is 5 hours later than the 1H candle starting at 19:00 on OKX. Don't take this as the reason for the price increase: Cap is building digital dollars (backed by money market funds and payment stablecoins) + credit + collateral markets. Last month they were discussing AI infrastructure financing, now they've expanded to film sets.
Calculating three accounts for chasing the high:
1. The ledger hasn't caught up: TVL is $191.7 million (7 days -5.8%), cUSD supply is 64.84 million; market cap is $151.5 million, only 0.79 times the TVL.
2. Dilution 6.4 times: circulating supply 15.6%, FDV 971 million.
3. Cost: funding fee settles every 4 hours, last night it was 0.0077% at the same time, now 0.046%, a 6-fold increase—long $10,000 pays $27.6 per day, about $10,000 per year; OKX has no spot pair, 400 order book levels total $4,613, but 24-hour volume is $112.4 million, 17.5 times the open interest of 6.41 million.
Price up 30% in 7 days, ledger down 5.8% in 7 days. Are you willing to pay 6.4 times dilution for a narrative not yet recorded on the ledger? $CAP The US midterm elections have changed US-Iran expectations, Brent crude fell below $95, and risk appetite has warmed, favoring SPCX, but the market has yet to confirm a reversal. The four-hour downtrend structure remains intact; the rebound looks more like a correction rather than a turning point. The top ten buy orders are 1240 versus 1566 sell orders, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.79, sellers still dominant. The funding rate of 0.0149% is relatively neutral, with open interest at 421,000 showing no signs of panic selling. The 24-hour amplitude is $10.81, indicating clear long-short divergence. The rebound first targets resistance at 139,865; a pullback to support at 129,615 allows for light long positions with a stop loss at 127,940 and a target of 138,720; position size should not exceed 20%, and exit immediately if support breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SPCX #US Midterm Elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress
#US midterm elections change US-Iran expectations, Brent falls below $95
$SPCX Tonight, the hottest is $INJ.
CoinGecko ranks it high in trending searches, with a global 24h trading volume of about $122 million and a market cap of approximately $830 million. OKX spot price is currently around 8.35 USDT, up about 8.5% from the 24h open at 7.695, with a daily range of 7.61–8.59 (data as of Beijing time 20:12).
The news is clear: Nasdaq approved the listing registration application for the Canary Staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) this Monday, planning to stake at least 90% of holdings, with custody by BitGo. It is the first Nasdaq channel for an INJ staking ETF. The actual sale still awaits the SEC's S-1 effectiveness; trading has not started yet.
My understanding: this round is more about the "channel opening" expectation, not the product being listed yet. Short-term sentiment is bullish; next, watch the S-1 progress and whether it can hold around 8.4.
$INJNonfarm payroll expectations are relatively weak: Will $BTC BTC and $ETH ETH really face a waterfall decline, or will the bears be counterattacked again?
From a bearish perspective, I say: the confidence behind this rebound is not sufficient. Approaching the nonfarm payroll release, if the data strengthens expectations for prolonged high interest rates, risk assets may face pressure first. In yesterday's public news, the market already showed a "dip and rebound" due to uncertainties related to the US midterm elections, indicating unstable sentiment.
BTC is currently around 80,146.11 USDT, with a 24-hour open at 78,174.95 USDT; the daily RSI is 57.70, not extremely overheated, but the MACD is still in a death cross state, and the super trend remains downward. Although the price stands above the 7-day moving average, it has not held above the 25-day moving average, and volume is only 0.51 times the 7-day average volume—there is a lack of transaction confirmation for the upward push.
ETH is currently around 2,412.92 USDT; the daily MACD has just formed a golden cross, but the super trend is still downward, and there is a net outflow of large funds at -3.28%. This means technical repair and capital attitude are temporarily diverging.
My bearish scenario is not an "inevitable waterfall": if the nonfarm payroll results exceed expectations and are strong, with the dollar and interest rate expectations rising, the low-volume rebound may be quickly given back; but if the data falls short of expectations, bears must also guard against a sharp pullback caused by liquidity replenishment. The key is not the expectation itself, but whether the volume, capital flow, and daily structure weaken synchronously after the data release.After reading, I noted three things, first separate "proposed" and "implemented" to avoid getting worked up when seeing the word "delay."
1. The South Korean government plans to postpone the taxation of crypto assets until 2029. The current proposal imposes a 22% tax on the portion of an individual's annual net gains exceeding 2.5 million KRW. The related proposal still requires the National Assembly to amend the Income Tax Act. The proposed loss carryforward only covers losses incurred from 2029 onward and can be deducted against taxable income until 2032; losses before the tax implementation are not counted.
2. My judgment is that this is more meaningful for individual investors in South Korea who have cross-year gains and losses and should not be directly regarded as a market positive. If the proposal passes, loss years can provide deduction space for subsequent profitable years. Compared to simply deferring tax payments, this arrangement better reflects investors' actual cross-year gains and losses.
3. I will mark on the list "old losses not applicable," so it should not be understood that all historical losses can be retroactively claimed. The government-civil working group still needs to refine taxation standards for complex activities and simplify the filing process; my guess is that if the rules are hard to understand and records are difficult to organize, then the theoretical deduction space may not be easy to utilize.
What I value more is whether the rules can truly be put into practice. What would you add as a fourth point: the boundary of historical losses, or how complex transactions should be reported?Did you guys expect this wave of Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise? Anyway, I didn't 🙂↔️, and unknowingly got trapped.
In the last 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $720 million, with $250 million liquidated on long positions and $470 million on short positions.
I still can't understand how $BTC can still go up to 80,000. Wasn't yesterday's news mostly bearish? Is this a case of bearish news turning bullish after the shoe drops? This wave trapped a lot of short positions, and liquidation data shows $270 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $250 million contributed by short positions. The huge volatility yesterday and still no profit really frustrates me.
Ethereum $ETH's rebound this time is really strong, bouncing from a low of $2,225 to a high of $2,451. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum spot still saw an outflow of about $77.09 million, while Bitcoin was slightly better with a net inflow of $209 million. In terms of funds, Ethereum hasn't seen much improvement yet, but its price has rebounded.
Right now, there's really no direction. Going long at this position isn't cost-effective, and going short risks getting trapped. Friday also has the US non-farm payroll data. Let's wait for the results before making any moves. Over 1,400 contestants were filtered down to just three, and the 19 consecutive wins record was the most striking benchmark in this OKX earnings forecast competition. During the break, the remaining participants all learned a lesson from the same SK Hynix market movement, where the stock surged 13.3% in a single day, completely overturning previously confident predictions. This failure forced the holder of the revival card to surrender their only second chance. This setback wore down the obsession with being right in every single round; the direction after earnings release inherently lacks a stable bias. No matter how thorough the prior analysis, one cannot avoid moments when the market delivers an opposite answer. The foundation of the entire analysis is to gather all market earnings expectations in advance and follow the clues given by the data forward, rather than betting based on personal preferences. Luck will inevitably be involved in every choice, but it cannot sustain continuous judgments. MSFT once experienced a 4.68% volatility, reminding everyone that price boundaries during earnings windows are much wider than usual. Another kind of loss comes from misreading the rules themselves. Some focus on the snapshot mechanism, trying to continuously bet on negative options to rack up points, only to end up with no gains and waste a round of participation. These mistakes have nothing to do with company performance but can quickly erode the small advantages accumulated earlier. This approach of prioritizing consensus expectations and lightly betting on one side will face challenges again when such an extreme single-day jump exceeding 13% occurs.$BTC Non-farm payroll negative expectations weigh heavily, after a stunning 24-hour reversal, will BTC and ETH experience a waterfall drop?
$BTC $ETH $STRC $TRUMP #NonFarmPayrollComing, can employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations?
The past 24 hours witnessed a super reversal completely beyond public expectations:
The market originally unanimously bet on a crash after the midterm elections, but the market instead saw a sharp V-shaped recovery. BTC first broke below 76,000, ETH fell below 2,250, spreading panic; as the Democrats took both houses and the boot dropped, the market directly reversed, BTC surged 5,460 dollars to a high of 81,196, ETH rebounded to around 2,450.
This triggered a chain reaction in the market: Saylor's STRC rose above 100 dollars for the first time in five months; the total market value of US stocks increased by 1.3 trillion dollars in a single day, the overall crypto market increased by 134 billion dollars; Schumer stated that the Democrats are pushing to end the Iran conflict, oil prices plummeted 9% to 87 dollars, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly 7 months.
At the same time, risk warnings appeared simultaneously: TRUMP token plunged 20%, Democrats plan to investigate his family's crypto business; there is also news that Trump-related entities transferred 343 million dollars in BTC to Crypto.com, and Democrats are preparing to introduce legislation to strengthen SEC crypto regulation. This is why it has always been said, don't try to trade every short-term fluctuation.
Now with non-farm payrolls approaching, the market has already priced in the negative narrative of "strong employment data, delayed rate cut expectations." Top Bull: Position Update! Total position value 670 million, fully short portfolio continues to hold and earn funding fees
Monitoring this whale's perpetual contracts, BTC, ETH, SOL all short positions laid out, showing unrealized losses but continuously earning funding fee subsidies.
📊 Complete position breakdown
✅ $BTC short position｜5X full position
Position: -2326.18 BTC, position value $190 million
Entry price: $76398.7
Unrealized P&L: -8.7331 million U
Funding fee income: +3.6261 million U
Margin: 37.2901 million U, liquidation price: $137805.05
✅ $ETH short position｜5X full position
Position: -87,500 ETH, position value $210 million
Entry price: $2322.71
Unrealized P&L: -8.556 million U
Funding fee income: +4.627 million U
Margin: 42.3583 million U, liquidation price: $3940.83
✅ $SOL short position｜7X full position
Position: -684,800 SOL, position value $64.804 million
Entry price: $94.3346
Unrealized P&L: -203,700 U
Funding fee income: +3.9816 million U
Margin: 9.2577 million U, liquidation price: $285.99The same non-farm payroll report sparks two heated debates with two different scenarios—Binance is asking "Is there still a chance for a rate cut?" while Europe and the US are asking "Will the December rate hike be reinforced?" BTC has first bounced back to around 80,200.
The market thinks: with the election settled, oil prices falling, and crypto turning green again, the macro narrative is unified.
In reality: ADP private employment increased by +86,000, exceeding expectations; ISM services employment at 51.4 continues to expand; but the non-farm payroll expectation is only about +60,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, to be released tomorrow at 21:30 Beijing time. The green candle fills the "narrative gap," not the "rate cut/hike is sealed."
My view: don’t treat above 80,000 as confirmation of a rate cut rally yet. If non-farm payrolls are significantly above 60,000 and unemployment doesn’t rise, rate hike expectations may be reinforced, making 80,000 a fragile support; if significantly below 60,000, then we can talk about risk appetite warming up again. The election good news is already priced in; the switch depends on data deviation direction, not slogans.
Takeaways:
1) Watch tomorrow at 21:30 non-farm payrolls vs. the expected +60,000/unemployment rate 4.2% deviation
2) Is 80,000 a narrative support or data support—don’t add positions based on feelings before data
3) The split in hot debates on the same topic = weak consensus, volatility will increase
Do you stand with "rate hike expectations will be reinforced" or "there’s still a chance for a rate cut"?
$BTC $ETH
#NonFarmPayrollsAreComing, can employment data reinforce December rate hike expectations?Non-farm downside expectations loom, will BTC and ETH really waterfall?
As the non-farm payroll approaches, the market has already started trading the narrative of "stronger data, suppressed rate cut expectations." If employment and wage data exceed expectations, the rise in US Treasury yields and the dollar could suppress risk appetite, potentially amplifying BTC and ETH volatility; however, I would not equate this directly to a waterfall decline. If expectations have been priced in advance, the reverse volatility after the data release is also worth watching.
On the charts, BTC is currently quoted at 80228.32 USDT, up from 78327.57 USDT 24 hours ago; ETH is currently at 2417.79 USDT, up from 2325.04 USDT 24 hours ago. BTC's daily MACD remains in a death cross, the super trend is at 82920.26 USDT and trending downward, with the 7-day moving average at 78329.57 USDT and the 25-day moving average at 80623.20 USDT forming a near-term tug of war. ETH has just formed a MACD golden cross, standing above the 7-day and 25-day moving averages, but the RSI is 69.95, approaching an overbought zone in the short term.
BTC's daily volume is only 0.51 times the 7-day average volume, ETH's is 0.39 times. If the rebound after the data release lacks volume and prices fall back below the short-term moving averages, the weak structure will be more convincing; conversely, if prices hold with volume amid high volatility, the bears' "waterfall scenario" will need to be reconsidered. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？
"AAOI 800G Optical Module Performance Reconciliation"
AI hardware has been hyped for so long, everyone has been focusing on computing power cards, but the high-speed optical modules responsible for data center interconnection are now starting to deliver results.
US stock AAOI is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings after market close on November 5, with official revenue expectations between $255 million and $290 million.
How many 800G high-speed optical modules have actually shipped, and whether the profit margin can hold up, will be revealed immediately after the earnings report. $BTC Today I saw many brothers saying "🐮 is back," so Beichen wants to share a personal view.
First of all, I personally think the bull is not back yet, and the reason is simple. This wave of rise is actually a rebound after bad news has settled. Previously, midterm election results, crypto regulatory expectations, Binance security incidents, and other negative factors continuously impacted the market. $BTC once dropped to around 75,000, and $ETH also followed with a significant pullback.
After the market releases concentrated panic, selling pressure naturally eases. Moreover, yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a renewed inflow of about $74.6 million, ending three consecutive days of net outflows. A large number of shorts were liquidated, and short covering further amplified the upward momentum.
A short-term rebound is possible, but it's still too early to call the bull 🐮 back. Currently, the outlook remains bearish. In the next article, Beichen will discuss short strategies for Bitcoin and Ethereum!
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ 这公司马上要在11月6日美股盘前公布Q3财报了。它搞的是啥？小型核反应堆，专门想给那些嗷嗷待哺的AI数据中心供电。按理说，这赛道现在是绝对的风口，但你看盘面上，相关的代币化股票OKLO却跌了1.18%，资金明显在财报前抢跑避险。 小马哥的个人看法是：方向绝对是对的，但现实极其骨感，这公司现在就是在“画饼充饥”。你看社区里聪明人点破的真相：它现在的商业化，死卡在监管没批和技术还没完全验证这两关上。更扎心的是，它目前根本没有电力收入，指着2028年那个Aurora项目发电赚钱呢，短期内只能靠卖点同位素回回血。机构虽然在炒铀价看多核能，但对Oklo的持续亏损非常警惕，甚至下调了目标价。这就说明，哪怕你的意向订单再多，没有真金白银的收入，在资本市场眼里就是个随时会爆的雷。 有啥影响？短期内，这就是个情绪降温的信号。AI数据中心缺电是硬逻辑，但如果Oklo这种明星企业财报拉胯，会直接打击市场对AI基础设施建设的狂热预期。这股冷风刮到币圈，那些蹭着“算力+能源”概念的山寨币和DePIN项目，大概率要跟着挨锤。 但往中长期看，这恰恰是去中盘前一片飘红，唯独一个名字被按在发行价下方摩擦。$SPCX 盘前跌5%，$135 的发行价眼看就要守不住——这不是某只小票的日常波动，而是市场对马斯克政治风险的一次集中定价。 更值得玩味的是时机。民主党横扫两院，交易员的第一反应不是庆祝政策落地，而是开始给马斯克旗下资产的政府合同重新估值。$Tesla、$SpaceX 这些长期靠联邦订单和政策红利吃饭的标的，突然被摆上了国会的放大镜。市场担心的不是调查本身，而是调查带来的合同重谈、补贴审查和舆论压力——这些才是真正会咬人的东西。 人群可能低估了这条传导链的长度。多数人只看到 $SPCX 破发这一个点，但真正的信号在于：政治风险正在从"个人声誉"升级为"可定价的资产折价"。当一位企业家的政治站队开始影响政府合同的可预期性，资本市场会先于新闻标题做出反应。$SPCX 盘前的5%就是这种提前反应的样本——它不是在交易业绩，而是在交易不确定性。 几天前特朗普还放话说，如果民主党拿下国会，他会先赦免马斯克。这句话现在听起来更像是一种预警而非玩笑。赦免的前提是有人要被追责，而市场已经用脚投票，把这种可能性折算进了价格。 确认这个论点是否成立，看两个$1.16 billion ran through in three days, and on the fourth day, Fidelity alone pulled back $237 million
US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow of $74.6 million on November 4
Ending three consecutive outflows since October 30: -$643 million, -$399 million, -$116 million
The divergence is the highlight: Fidelity FBTC +$237 million in a single day
ARKB +$19.9 million, BITB +$15.2 million, BlackRock IBIT reversed with -$201 million
Still a net outflow of $827 million over 7 days, the fourth day only made up a small fraction
Bitcoin also pulled back from a seven-week low below $76,000
On November 5, it stood above $80,000, rising 3.55% intraday to $80,317
I think this is not institutions returning, but money changing hands between issuers
The invalidation point is if FBTC turns net outflow tomorrow, or if Bitcoin's daily close falls back below $76,000
Which side are you on: Is Fidelity leading the inflow a reversal signal, or does IBIT continuing to run away count?
$FBTC $IBIT
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元
The U.S. midterm elections change global oil prices! $95 breached, is the real storm just beginning?
Brent crude oil fell below $95. This time, the market is trading not just oil, but the U.S. political landscape and the direction of the Middle East war!
The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out: the Democratic Party took control of both chambers of Congress, putting greater political pressure on the Trump administration. The previously sustained rise in oil prices due to U.S.-Iran conflicts has now seen new expectations for a turnaround.
On November 4, Brent crude plunged 8.7% in a single day, closing at $94.62, marking a new low in over two months.
But I believe the most noteworthy aspect of this oil price drop is not how much it fell, but that the market is beginning to reprice geopolitical risks.
If U.S.-Iran negotiations make progress and Middle East oil supply is restored, the previously accumulated risk premium could further dissipate.
But don’t rush to think that oil prices have entered a long-term bear market. The war has not truly ended, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz still exist.
My judgment is: the market is now trading on expectations of peace, not the reality of peace.
With $95 breached, is this the start of a new round of oil price declines, or a concentrated release of geopolitical risk premium?In ten minutes, the Bank of England will simultaneously release the interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. Having all three documents drop in the same minute is not the usual rhythm; typically, the authorities want the direction, divergences, and medium-term path to be seen together rather than leaving the market to guess.
The weight of the three documents differs. The interest rate decision sets the current price and can be traded immediately; the meeting minutes reveal the internal committee divergences, with the size of the divergence determining whether there will be further changes next time; the monetary policy report provides the medium-term assumptions, serving as an anchor for forward pricing. Short-term fluctuations and medium-to-long-term expectations are re-evaluated simultaneously.
The transmission is straightforward. First, the pound and UK government bond yields move, then the effect spills over through the dollar and global risk appetite. $BTC is currently traded as a liquidity asset and is most sensitive to this spillover; $ETH has greater elasticity, so its volatility is amplified; highly volatile assets like $SOL tend to react even more extremely when liquidity expectations change.
My judgment is: the direction is not at the moment of the announcement but at the closing price of the first hour after the release. Since the three types of information are released together, the initial reaction is likely to be wrong because algorithms and emotions move first, and humans adjust later. Those chasing the first spike usually just provide liquidity for others.
Here is a question worth pondering: Does compressing the release of the three documents into the same moment reduce uncertainty, or does it create a more concentrated pricing event?Oh no, ETFs have started net inflows!
After the midterm elections settled, the market shifted from risk-off selling to a mild return following the elimination of uncertainty.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
On November 4, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $74.6 million, and ETH net inflow of $53 million, ending the continuous outflows around the election period.
My judgment is that this is positive, but not a confirmation of a trend.
The reasons are simple:
First, the single-day scale is small; over the past 5 trading days, BTC ETFs still had a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion, indicating a mild return rather than strong buying;
Second, there is obvious rotation of funds, with large inflows into FBTC while IBIT saw large outflows, indicating internal switching rather than broad net buying;
Third, although election uncertainty has been removed, with the Democrats controlling Congress, the path for crypto regulation remains uncertain, so institutions will not significantly increase positions based on single-day data.
This looks more like a tentative return after a pause in selling; trend reversal still requires verification by continuous net inflows over multiple days.
$BTC Trend forecast:
In the short term, it is highly likely to oscillate between 78,000 and 82,000; if ETF inflows continue for two consecutive days, it may test 82,500; if outflows resume, it will retest support at 76,500–77,000.
Trading advice:
Spot holders can continue to hold; contracts can be lightly shorted near 81,500 with a stop loss at 82,500. AI position liquidation may be nearing its end, and hedge funds might start buying again at this point
In October, hedge funds significantly reduced risk and focused on liquidating AI positions, which actually improved the positioning environment for U.S. stocks, especially the AI sector, ahead of year-end. If AI stocks gradually stabilize in November and retail investors continue buying equity funds, hedge funds may begin to increase AI exposure again starting from the end of November. However, long-term capital allocation to bonds may still limit further declines in yields, and subsequent interest rate drops might rely more on momentum and other speculative funds to drive them. (JPMorgan) #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $SOL US Midterm Elections: What Does the Future Hold for Bitcoin?
As the US midterm elections approach, market attention is once again focused on the potential impact of this event on Bitcoin. According to historical data, since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen in the year following all 19 midterm elections, with an average increase of 15.1%. Similarly, Bitcoin's price has also increased one year after the last three complete midterm election cycles, with an average gain of about 54%. However, investors should understand that these figures conceal significant risks.
According to analysis by Deep Tide TechFlow, Bitcoin's performance this year has broken the pattern of the previous three midterm elections. Its current price is above the 200-day moving average, indicating that its long-term trend remains upward. However, it is worth noting that historical data shows Bitcoin often experiences a short-term decline immediately after elections, which means investors may face potential losses in the weeks following the vote.
With the market generally expecting Congress to be controlled by different parties, regulatory policies will have a major impact on the crypto industry. The progress of the CLARITY Act is very uncertain. If future congressional legislation on the crypto industry is not proactive, it could lead to a prolonged state of regulatory uncertainty for the sector. This uncertainty may not only suppress investors' risk appetite but also delay the market's recovery process.The ETF ran for three days, but the coin price actually stood up — this drama is even more entertaining than the midterm elections themselves.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $115.6 million on Tuesday, adding to $398.6 million on Monday and $643.2 million on October 30, totaling $1.157 billion over three days (Farside data, announced November 4).
Ethereum wasn’t idle either: $85.3 million outflow on Tuesday, totaling $380.7 million over three days, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for the majority on Tuesday.
But the price didn’t cooperate with the script: BTC is currently around $77,946, up 1.55% in 24 hours; ETH is about $2,300, up 1.97% (CoinGecko real-time verification).
I think these three days of ETF activity look more like profit-taking plus risk aversion, rather than a collective institutional sell-off — if confidence had truly collapsed, prices wouldn’t have V-shaped back after the midterm election results.
Of course, don’t rush to call a reversal until outflows stop; the US October jobs report on November 6 is the next hurdle.
The invalidation condition is clear: if BTC falls back below the intraday low of $75,736, this "stabilization" theory is void.
Which side are you betting on: ETF outflows stopping means the coin price is truly stable, or price rises first and funds follow?
$BTC $ETH
#ETFfundflows #BitcoinEthereumLook at this HYPE chart. The price is sitting at 82.427 right now. Just recently, it shot up to a high of 97.088 before dropping down, and earlier it bounced from a low of 74.465. Looking at past market moves, crypto prices often test support levels after a big pump. If it holds near the 81 to 82 moving average line, we might see another push upward toward 90. However, if it breaks down, it could retest lower zones like the old 74 mark. What do you think will happen next in this market? After Bitcoin broke through 80,000 USD, short-term holders began to take profits. In the past 24 hours, short-term holders transferred 28,690 BTC in profit to trading platforms. Despite facing short-term selling pressure, Bitcoin still successfully closed above 80,000 USD and stood above the 21-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, which is a positive signal for Bitcoin's short-term trend #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Tether CEO说公司持有约15万枚BTC，储备报告却只显示约10万枚。多出的约5万枚BTC，究竟该怎么理解？ 一、新闻。据公开报道，Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino表示公司持有“差不多15万枚BTC”，但第三季度储备报告对应的数据约为100,060枚，两者相差接近5万枚。同期市场还在讨论币安SAFU基金7,500枚BTC转出至未标记地址，机构持仓透明度再次成为焦点。 二、资金影响。BTC ETF最新单日净流出6.636亿美元，5日净流出2.265亿美元，10日净流出3.512亿美元。美元指数报101.46、日内跌0.28%，黄金涨0.43%，恐惧贪婪指数从26升到34。ETF在赎回，而场外机构持仓的统计口径又存在差异，市场很难形成一致预期。 三、BTC含义。CE0口径可能包含不同实体、子公司或未披露时间点的持仓，不能仅凭差额就推断额外买入或隐瞒风险。但口径不一致会提高信息折价，让投资者更难判断真实供给锁定程度。机构化叙事要成立，持仓披露必须可复核，而不是依赖口头数字。 四、观察指标。我接下来盯四个指标：一是下一期储备报告是否解释差额；二是Tether是否披露更清晰$SKHYNIX Direction: Long
· Entry: Buy on a pullback to stabilize around 938 - 942 (close to previous low support).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks below 935 (below previous low).
· Take Profit: First target 975, second target 1000.
⚠️ Note: Overall, it is in an extremely strong one-sided sharp downtrend (down nearly 11%). Currently, this is only a short-term oversold rebound play after a sharp drop, with a golden cross signal below the MACD zero line. Do not chase the high directly; wait for a pullback to confirm support. This is a counter-trend catch-the-falling-knife trade, very light position with stop loss.What the heck is going on? This can actually happen? Microsoft $MSFT surged about 6.68% in one day, closing at $555.80.
Amazon followed suit, rising about 6.12% to close at 266.03. The Dow Jones jumped roughly 1569 points in one go, up 3.03%, closing near 53356. The S&P 500 rose about 1.58%, and the Nasdaq increased about 1.44%. After the Democrats took both chambers in the midterm elections, capital quickly flowed back into big tech cloud and consumer sectors.
On the same trading day, Nvidia $NVDA dropped about 3.17%, closing near 200.13. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell about 3%. The gainers were heavyweight stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, while high-level AI hardware stocks were sold off. The scene was lively, with money rotating between positions.
In the short term, I’m bullish on this recovery wave of traditional big tech heavyweights. With the election results settled, capital is flowing back into big tech more decisively. Volatility in high-level semiconductors hasn’t calmed down yet.
For beginners, I suggest watching more and trading less; when buying crypto, only buy $BTC $ARB
Arbitrum has an important role in Ethereum’s Layer-2 landscape, where scaling and lower transaction costs remain central challenges. Its ecosystem faces competition from other rollups and alternative blockchain networks. More applications do not automatically translate into stronger ARB token demand. Governance influence, ecosystem economics, network activity, and the distribution of value deserve separate consideration when evaluating its long-term fundamentals.Before the market opened, the storage sector was once again "applying eye drops" to DOGE
Brothers, the pain from last night’s flash between SanDisk and SK Hynix is still fresh, and before tonight’s market open, there’s another hit. SK Hynix fell over 4% pre-market, Micron dropped nearly 3%, SanDisk fell over 3%. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.76%, while Dow futures rose 0.43%, a stark contrast. Qualcomm was even worse, crashing over 10% pre-market with all earnings guidance disappointing.
On the crypto side, DOGE is still playing dead in the compressed range of 0.075-0.076. But one data point is glaring: in the last 24 hours of liquidations, longs accounted for 94%, the long-short ratio soared above 14 times, and leveraged long positions were completely wiped out. The ratio of large holders long to short is 3.24, with 76% of accounts holding long positions, yet the price refuses to rise. The ETF has only added 3.5 million in three weeks, while a whale dumped 120 million coins in one week. Positions are heavily skewed to the long side, but buying pressure is like squeezing toothpaste.
Storage chips have been hammered by the retreat of AI trading and can’t lift their heads, while Nasdaq futures continue to probe lower. DOGE’s long leverage has been washed out once, but no one is stepping in to buy the spot. Shorting here isn’t cost-effective, and going long feels like catching a flying knife.
A soul-searching question: When the US stock market opens tonight, will the storage sector drag DOGE down into the 0.07 abyss, or will crypto clear out before the US market and make an independent rebound? Which side is your position betting on? $BTC $DOGE $BTC
I don't accept the term "holding above 80,000." It is holding, from 4 a.m. until now for fifteen hours it hasn't fallen back, but this was pushed up, not bought out.
The volume is clear: at 6 a.m. that 1H candle slammed 378,000 contracts, pushing the price from 80,201 to 80,688, and at 9 a.m. there were 342,000 contracts. After that, it thinned out continuously, 168,000 at 12 p.m., 262,000 at 3 p.m. was the last wave, and 84,000 contracts from 7 p.m. until now.
Open interest hasn't moved either, 33,686 contracts, 2.7 billion on the zero line, only a few dozen more than I recorded in the afternoon. Shorts have been pushed out, but no new money has come in.
The fee rate is still pinned at the 0.01% baseline, bulls aren't willing to pay even a 0.01% premium. The 80,000 level now relies on no one selling.
So I won't chase this leg. I'll wait until a 1H candle releases 300,000 contracts above 80,000, then we can talk about holding steady.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Currently, Tether has never publicly disclosed fixed cooperation fees for native USDT support, and there is no unified public pricing within the industry. The overall cost and cooperation threshold entirely depend on the qualifications of the L1 blockchain itself, the scale of its ecosystem, and its negotiation position with Tether, with no publicly listed prices. Core explicit cost dimensions: Technical integration and audit costs : To adapt to Tether's USDT0 standard protocol, complete on-chain contract deployment, cross-chain bridge integration, and security audits are required. This routine investment typically ranges from $500,000 to $2,000,000 and is the basic technical expenditure all projects must bear. Ecosystem and liquidity reserves : To meet the initial USDT circulation demand upon launch, some public chains need to reserve a certain scale of USDT liquidity in advance as initial incentives. The industry's usual initial liquidity investment ranges from several million to tens of millions of dollars. Ecosystem promotion costs : It is necessary to connect exchanges, wallets, and payment service providers to achieve full-channel support for USDT. There is no public standard for this channel cooperation investment, but related promotion expenses for leading public chains are generally at the tens of millions of dollars level. Implicit cooperation thresholds and potential revenue sharing: Tether's access review for new chains is very strict, prioritizing public chains that already have a certain user base and trading volume, such as Tron and Solana, which have already formed stable USDT usage ecosystems. There are almost no additional cooperation thresholds, and USDT becomes a core on-chain asset immediately after launch. Reference Circle's UWhich sectors will benefit or suffer from the Democrats controlling both chambers?
Today's market seems to have already given the answer. The performance of the U.S. stock market on the day of the midterm elections:
╰✦ The biggest gainers were the consumer sectors
Walmart $WMT +3.45%
Costco $COST +2.67%
Procter & Gamble $PG +3.25%
Coca-Cola $KO -0.34%
╰✦ The tech sector was more divided
Semiconductors generally fell, but software and application-related stocks showed noticeable gains.
AMD +1.01%
NVIDIA NVDA -3.17%
Broadcom AVGO -2.00%
Micron MU -7.0%
Intel INTC -3.77%
Palantir PLTR -2.11%
Apple AAPL +5.31%
Microsoft MSFT +6.68%
╰✦ Energy stocks had the largest declines
The market fantasizes that Democrats controlling both chambers could end the U.S.-Iran war and lower oil prices.
Exxon $XOM -4.62%
Chevron $CVX -3.69%
Brother Feng has started building a position in CVX and has been wanting to buy it.
First, Brother Feng does not believe the Democrats will allow Iran to dilute its enriched uranium domestically; the agreement won't be that easy to sign. Second, even if the Democrats want to end the war, it won't happen that quickly. After all, Congress only serves as a constraint on the president. Third, Chevron is quite active in cooperation in Venezuela. So, even if oil prices fall, Chevron might still have an advantage in production.There's something I've never quite understood: Bitcoin hovers around $80,000, dropping only 0.2% in a day, which looks pretty stable. But in the past three days, the spot ETF kept pulling money out every day, yet the price didn't crash.
Today the answer came — the ETF stopped withdrawing, outflows halted.
So during those three days, someone was running while being caught. Now the runners are tired, and the price just sticks there without moving.
The most interesting part is the 0.2% figure, which shows that both bulls and bears are too lazy to make a move. This isn't stability, it's a stalemate. $BTC is stuck at the $80,000 round number, and no one wants to make the first move.On Wednesday, Bitcoin made a pull-up, and then nothing happened — from 8 AM this morning until now, the price is $80,250, down 0.2%.
This movement is quite dull, but it hides a signal worth highlighting separately: the spot ETF has ended three consecutive days of capital outflow.
Let's look at the numbers first. The price remains above $80,000, with intraday volatility only 0.2%, almost a flat line. After three days of net outflow, it stopped, indicating a change in the source of selling pressure.
Mechanically, ETF subscriptions and redemptions are the most direct demand side. When there is continuous outflow, market makers hedge in the spot market, effectively dumping inventory on the order book every day; when outflow stops, this mechanical selling pressure withdraws first. Note that it is withdrawn, not reversed — stopping outflow only means no one continues to sell, not that someone starts buying aggressively.
So my judgment is: the $80,000 level is holding in the short term, but holding does not mean rising. The price can stay flat, and the ETF no longer bleeding funds — both happening simultaneously indicates that chips are changing hands, not collapsing.
What really matters next is whether net outflow turning to net inflow after stopping. If it just stays at zero, the upper limit of this rebound is consolidation; if it turns to net inflow, $80,000 can be considered a true floor. $BTC's current position, whether a bottom or a continuation, depends on this turning point.$XTZ is the coin of Tezos, a veteran L1, with about 1.12 billion circulating and a market cap of $330 million, still down 97% from the high of 9.12.
News: No new announcements found. Just three things: a technical rebound from oversold levels, a crowded short with a rate of -0.114%, and altcoin rotation. The October commodity classification and the 11/26 staking fee waiver are old news and won't ignite tonight's rally.
Trend: Extremely low volume sideways for three days between 0.238-0.252, tested 0.2589 last night, this morning first attack at 0.2803 then sideways, at 19:00 a one-hour $3.15 million (60x+) spike to 0.3122.
Funds: Open Interest up 21% in three hours to 4.47 million coins, new longs entering; rate still negative, short squeeze fuel not yet exhausted.
Sector: The veteran L1s are unchanged ($ALGO +1.3%, $ADA +0.4%), purely a coin market.
Forecast: Bet 50% to first retest support, holding 0.270-0.280 for a second wave, resistance at 0.30-0.32 is thick with trapped positions; 25% stake holding above 0.3122 targets 0.35; 25% breaks below 0.264 signals a one-day play, retesting 0.238.
Attitude: Do not chase spikes: wait for a pullback to see support, or wait to hold steady before following.#非農在即，就業數據能否強化12月加息預期？ The U.S. Challenger October layoff data dropped sharply by 71% year-on-year, with only 43,994 layoff announcements, hitting a recent low for the same period, superficially highlighting labor market resilience. However, this data is disturbed by a high base effect, with most new hires being temporary holiday positions, and companies showing weak long-term expansion willingness, representing a "low layoffs, weak hiring" divergent pattern, which cannot be simply interpreted as a significant employment recovery.
The market is waiting for the nonfarm payroll report to verify the real employment strength. The current consensus expects weak job additions and stable unemployment rate. This data drives the market to reprice the Fed's policy terminal: if nonfarm payrolls and wages exceed expectations strongly, the risk of inflation rebound rises, delaying the pace of rate cuts; if the data weakens, it will consolidate rate cut expectations. This event directly affects U.S. Treasury yields, tech stocks, and growth asset pricing, serving as a core short-term macro catalyst for the market.Whale’s $150M Short Portfolio Revealed! $BTC , $ETH , and $ATOM Show Diverging P&L Performance A whale’s massive short portfolio, valued at approximately $150 million, has come to light. The investor is simultaneously betting against $BTC, $ETH, and $ATOM, maintaining full-position shorts across all three assets. However, the positions are showing significantly different profit and loss performances. 📊 Complete Position Breakdown 🔴 $BTC Short | 20X Leverage - Position Size: 436 $BTC - AverageAfter the negative impact of the Binance hack settled, the market refused to break down, and this abnormal signal directly triggered the closure of all short positions. The old bearish strategy no longer fits the current liquidity environment. The crypto market is stuck in a range without clear direction. The short-selling model that once reliably delivered profits is no longer suitable for continuous reuse. Over the past year, stable returns were achieved through short positions, but in recent weeks, even though shorts can still be profitable, the tension of holding positions is heavy, with each overnight period bearing very high volatility risk. The funding constraints caused by high interest rates continue to take effect, and off-exchange incremental funds are reluctant to enter. Many traders apply the 2023 breakout and retest experience to the current market but overlook that capital preferences have already shifted. Robinhood's earnings report confirms the sluggishness of the crypto trading sector. On the US stock side, no comfortable entry window has been found. The semiconductor sector has yet to form a clear bottom. For QQQ and memory-related stocks, only when a volume-driven new low appears will they consider entering. Without this signal, they are willing to forgo rebounds even if missed. There are only two viable paths to position for the AI theme: to catch deeply oversold stocks or to bet on earnings that exceed expectations. Both routes carry hidden risks, making it difficult to decide simply. The positions in CQQQ and KSTR just hit the low point of this round. KSTR recorded a 2.26% gain, and this short-term profit can easily mislead people into thinking the overall market has warmed up. This profit was just a precise hit on a local rebound.