Orbit Post Sitemap
Excellent article, currently clearly showing characteristics of the early bull market!
Currently, the way $BTC liquidity is triggered is obviously the opposite of the previous bearish trend consolidation phase.
In the bearish trend consolidation phase, the highs are repeatedly tested but the trend does not continue, sweeping liquidity at previous highs.
In the bullish trend consolidation phase, the lows are repeatedly tested but the trend does not continue, sweeping liquidity at previous lows.
Many people are bearish and shorting at this BTC position, but the price is only slowly declining, dropping sluggishly. Every time it approaches around 80,000 and looks like it will break down, it pulls back again, indicating that the main force is accumulating at this position using limit orders.There are finally some signs of recovery
$ETH is finally somewhat profitable
But $BTC is still at a loss
It's time to rise, brother
Stop harvesting back and forth
$DOOD's funding rate is really abnormal
The citrus manipulator is about to make a move
Don't be fooled
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. HBM is the profit foundation, with long-term contract volume locked in
HBM4 continues to ramp up, and long-term agreements (LTA) with major clients like NVIDIA serve as a core safety net. These contracts include price adjustment mechanisms to hedge spot market fluctuations. Institutions expect the proportion of high value-added products to continue rising; regular DRAM contracts and spot prices are rising simultaneously, doubly driving up ASP. The Q3 forecast has already been revised upward, and strong profitability is expected to continue in Q4, with operating profit margins maintained at an extremely high level above 70%. SOL｜About 100.81: Following the rebound, still not out of weakness
SOL rebounded from around 99, reaching a high of 101.14, but the most recent full hour closed at 100.82, still not firmly above the previously indicated resistance zone of 100.8—101.1.
Upward: First see if it can hold above 101.1, then look at 101.5—102.1.
Downward: First watch around 100.25, then 99.7—100. If it falls below 100 again, be cautious of a retest of 99.
My inclination: Weakness correction. Reclaiming 100 is an improvement, but until it holds above 101.1, it is not enough to confirm a shift to strength. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BCH warmed up today following the broader market, with funding rates remaining positive and buy-side depth dominant. I judge that short-term buying has initially stabilized, but upward potential depends on volume support. Current price is 287.9, up 3.7% in 24 hours, approaching the intraday high of 290.31, just 0.53% below the four-hour high; the upward structure remains intact. The top ten order book buy/sell ratio is 1.73, clearly favoring buyers. A funding rate of 0.009% indicates mild bullish sentiment without overheating, and coin-margined positions of 84,000 show funds are still actively trading. A light position can be entered on a pullback to 285.6, with a stop loss at 282.3 and a target of 293.7; if volume breaks above 290.31, increase position size, keeping it within 20%, and exit decisively if stop loss is breached.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$BCH#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
$BCH Microsoft $MSFT is releasing its earnings report after the market closes on October 28 today. Each company has different focus points, and Microsoft has its own characteristics.
The priority of focus points is roughly arranged as follows:
1. The top priority is, of course, Azure growth + forward guidance.
2. Then profitability, especially cloud gross margin, mainly to verify whether AI investments have hurt profitability.
3. Next is capital expenditure (Capex), which is especially important this year.
4. Free cash flow (FCF), which is becoming as important as point 3.
Many other companies focus on EPS, but for Microsoft, that's not a big deal—they always beat expectations.
I compiled a table below showing whether key factors in each earnings report over the past 3 years beat expectations + the stock price performance on the first day after the report, so everyone can see it clearly (ps: their fiscal year calculation is different; other companies' Q3 earnings correspond to their Q1).
There is a rule in US stock earnings betting: the more a stock has risen recently and the more news there is, the easier it is for the market to find faults. Meeting or slightly beating expectations can still lead to a big drop. Microsoft just hit a historical high, so the difficulty level has risen sharply.
But putting aside the one-day gamble, Microsoft's historical performance in October and November is still good. In the past 10 years, the probability of gains from October 31 to November 30 is 80%, with 8 out of 10 times positive returns, averaging +4.12%.
Everyone, stay tuned
#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ $PI has three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation. Firing has started again. So someone jumps out again, skillfully shouting those two words: safe haven. Buy this, buy that.📣
And then? The market first asks not whether to be afraid, but where the money comes from.💸
When conflict escalates, fiscal expansion comes first, supply tightens first, and volatility amplifies first. The so-called safe haven often just means switching from one set of leverage to another.🎢
The first wave grabs sentiment, the second wave collects liquidity. By the time you see “safe haven” trending, the price has already sold you the story.🧾
Don’t treat geopolitics like candlesticks, don’t treat slogans like logic. True safe haven is not chasing the rise of some code, but deleveraging, holding cash, and controlling your hands.🧊
I’m not bearish on conflict, I’m bearish on the universal formula of “war must cause a rise.” Every round someone tells you to seek safe haven, every round someone pays for sentiment.💣➡️💳
War is not a gift, it’s a bill; not a button, but a fog.🌫️#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Elections are just a source of volatility; the cost zone is the real lifeline for BTC
Midterm elections are often seen as BTC's "fixed ordeal." Looking back at four instances: before and after the votes in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% respectively; Q4 also mostly performed poorly, with declines of -16.7%, -42%, and -14.75% in 2014, 2018, and 2022 respectively. As November 3 approaches, feeling tense is not shameful; ignoring risks is dangerous.
But this year's rhythm is different. In past bear markets, the lows mostly appeared after the vote, with lags of 71 days, 38 days, and 13 days; this year, the low was seen on July 1 at 57,850, 125 days before the election day. By October 22, the price rebounded to 81,455, about 40% above the low. The market seems to have completed the "election bottom" ahead of time.
Right now, more attention should be paid to the cost. Around 73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of short-term holders; Strategy holds 848,000 BTC with an average cost of 75,446. These two anchors overlap in the 73,000–75,000 range. The real damage caused by the election is not the voting day itself, but the possibility of pushing the price down to test this cost zone. Holding this level means the bull market logic remains; losing it is the real problem.
CoinDesk's judgment makes sense: midterm weakness is more due to its own cycle rather than the election. Elections create volatility; cost determines life or death. November 3 can see a drop, but the 73,000–75,000 range must not be lost. My Bitcoin trading strategy for October 27.
On the H1 timeframe, $BTC is still fluctuating within a converging triangle pattern, with the range gradually narrowing, indicating the market is consolidating and possibly waiting for news to decide its next move.
Currently, the price is oscillating between 79,500-80,500, and the short-term trend remains bearish as the price continues to make lower highs.
My trading strategy
Scenario 1: BTC may experience a false upward rebound, with liquidity quickly breaking through the 81k-82k range, then falling back and dropping to the 78.7k area.
Scenario 2: If buying pressure continues to weaken, BTC may break below the lower edge of the triangle pattern and drop directly to the 78.7k area without a significant rebound.
This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice.
Do you think Bitcoin will pull back to the 81k area to clear liquidity before a crash? Please share your thoughts!No one can guarantee you will make money unless they are a scammer, but I can tell you that I believe Google's GAAP earnings per share have over a 90% probability of being less than $3, because SpaceX's stock price fell in the third quarter.#Google Cloud business grows 82%, how is the AI investment return? The largest publicly listed buyer of Bitcoin suddenly stopped.
After Strategy bought continuously for 5 weeks, it didn't buy a single BTC last week.
As of October 25, the company still holds 848,517 bitcoins, with no purchases or sales during this period.
What’s more noteworthy is that it used about $205 million to repurchase its own preferred shares.
At the same time, MSCI is considering adjusting the index inclusion rules. If the new rules are implemented, Strategy may face the risk of being removed, and future financing for buying coins could also be affected.
**I think what truly deserves attention is not that Strategy paused buying for a week, but the financing logic behind it.**
Strategy’s continuous Bitcoin purchases largely depend on the capital market: issuing stock, raising funds, and then converting the money into BTC.
As long as the market is willing to give it a valuation premium, this model can continue to operate.
But if index eligibility is affected, financing costs rise, or investors are no longer willing to pay a premium, this approach may hit a bottleneck.
Of course, stopping buying for a week doesn’t mean it’s out of money, nor can it be taken as a bearish signal on Bitcoin.
But I believe **what really deserves caution is not that big players temporarily stop buying, but that the market is starting to reassess whether it can sustain financing.**
After all, Bitcoin can be held long-term, but financing channels cannot remain open forever. Busy flipping the market late into the night, I finally breathed a sigh of relief. The exchange's BTC balance dropped by 8,166 coins in one day, down to 2,490,600 coins. Coins are moving out, not piling in.
But looking at a longer window, over 7 days the exchange's balance actually increased by 36,237 coins. One day's outflow versus a week's inflow—this short-term move looks more like repositioning than a desperate escape. That calmed my nerves 😌.
Tonight, the batch of US data has passed, the suspense digested. I won’t guess where it landed; guessing right is luck, guessing wrong breaks your mindset.
Two European surveys simultaneously tightened their tone. On the business side, the proportion reporting loan obstacles rose to 7%. On the banking side, net demand for mortgages dropped 27%, much deeper than the banks’ expected 12%. Before Thursday night’s decision, Europe’s credit tension is already high.
The funding cost table is interesting too. BTC’s weighted cost hangs at 0.0097%, ETH only 0.0059%. Bulls pay more on BTC, but the market doesn’t show BTC being tougher. Money spent, but momentum didn’t follow—kind of funny.
In options, bullish positions account for 59.34%, but bullish trades only 52.85%. Positions are more bullish than trades; everyone talks tough but keeps a hand back. I think that’s a good thing.
As for the market, the three major coins are still grinding near the threshold. ZEC closed up against the trend. I’m not rushing to conclusions, just watching. On days when coins move out, feeling secure is more important than acting fast. Anyway, I’m not chasing this wave 😌.ETF 目前只是申请，还没批。 Canary Capital 今年 4 月提交了 PEPE 现货 ETF 的 S-1 文件，10 月初又做了修订，但 SEC 还没批准，上市时间也不确定。 所以"孙哥提前知道 ETF 要过"这个说法，目前没有证据支撑。$PEPE $BTC $ETH 孙哥确实在买。 据 Arkham 数据，孙宇晨关联钱包在 10 月 17 日和 26 日从 Poloniex 提了 11.85 万亿枚 PEPE，目前持有接近总供应量的 3%，疑似是最大个人持有者。 他买是买了，但孙哥的动向向来是双刃剑，跟着他冲的人不少被埋过。 巨鲸动作并不统一。 确实有链上数据显示部分大钱包在积累，但也有巨鲸在亏本抛售换 ETH。 筹码高度集中在少数地址手里，77%-90% 的供应量在大钱包里，这意味着少数人就能左右盘面。 这轮上涨更多是情绪驱动。 PEPE 10 月 24 日单日涨了 14%，周涨幅 23%，但没有任何明确的基本面催化剂。 衍生品市场融资费率接近零甚至略负，说明多头并没有真的愿意付溢价持仓，更多是短线杠杆在推。 我的看法：PEPE 现在就是纯情绪博弈，ETF 申请是个叙One of the biggest headaches for ENS in previous years was people using domain names to mass-issue scam tokens, and the official team could only arbitrate one by one.
Now the direction has reversed. V2 allows a single domain name to act as an independent registry, where communities and organizations set their own subdomain issuance rules—a root domain becomes a namespace plus a token launcher. Whoever controls the root domain can spawn unlimited subdomains, taking even the "name looks trustworthy" aspect along with it 😏
Regarding existing domains, the official stance is very polite: current .eth domains will continue to work without needing to re-register, and upgrading is voluntary. Thirty-six million domains and over six hundred applications—these two numbers will still be cited; but who will really migrate to V2? Most likely new names, not those thirty-six million old domains.
$BTC
$ETH
$ENS Samsung's Q3 operating profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times, and the numbers are indeed shocking. But before the full financial report is released, what I most want to resist is equating this directly to "HBM has completely won."
Samsung is a conglomerate with many businesses. Storage, wafer foundry, mobile phone businesses, etc., face different demands and costs. A significant increase in group profit can prove strong overall performance but cannot automatically endorse every business line.
Especially regarding the rise in storage prices, the implications may differ across departments. The supply side benefits from the price increase, while end products must consider component costs. Internal transactions also require consolidation and elimination, so the benefits of each department cannot be simply added together.
So this time I want to see which businesses mainly contributed to the profit and which still need continued investment.
If storage profitability improves while other businesses also improve, the market's understanding of growth will be more complete; if profits are highly concentrated in one area, then we need to ask how long that segment's prosperity can be maintained.
Such a large year-on-year increase inevitably creates the impulse of "if you don't buy now, it will be too late." I also think the results are impressive, but the earnings forecast has already told everyone the total and breakdown. The value of the full financial report lies in seeing how each subject performed. The upcoming expectation gap is likely hidden there.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 $ZEC BTC and ETH have been volatile these three days, with daily highs getting lower each day. Everyone be cautious and pay attention to risks. Before the Thursday interest rate decision and the related statements come out, it's not advisable to hold heavy high-leverage positions. Hold back, better to stay in cash. Don't rely on K-line charts of minutes or hours, they can be misleading. ZEC is running an independent rally again, up for three consecutive days, but: be cautious. Chasing longs and chasing the rally is very risky because the fact is: neither the high of 1348 on the 12th nor the more recent high of 1368 on the 22nd has been reached or broken. There is still a possibility of a sudden reversal downward. Can ZEC really be completely unaffected by BTC and ETH? I think it's unlikely... That's all.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
ETF funds are like the Pharaoh drawing maps in the desert—changing every day. Can this buying pressure really hold steady?
The Pharaoh says directly: don’t expect it to hold firmly. The current ETF funds are like "weather vanes," swaying with the wind.
First, look at how volatile the data is. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a cumulative net inflow of about $246 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbing $373 million. But don’t forget, in the first week of October, nearly $680 million fled, marking the worst since August. On October 7 alone, $485 million flowed out—the largest single-day outflow in three and a half months. Money comes in fast but leaves even faster, mainly aiming to "break even and exit."
First, the macroeconomic sword still hangs overhead. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, making risk-free returns very attractive, so funds dare not stay long in risky assets.
Second, the FOMC meeting is just ahead. The October 28-29 rate decision meeting has an 85% chance of a pause in rate hikes, but who dares to bet heavily before the meeting? Everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop.
Third, there’s heavy resistance above. A large amount of previous chips are stacked around 81,000 for Bitcoin; no one is stepping up to push it higher, so the price naturally slides down.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? ETF buying is a "floor support," not an "engine." It can prevent deep drops, but whether it can soar depends on when Treasury yields bow and whether the FOMC will signal dovishness. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ zijin Thermometer: ETF Shift on October 21, but "Sustaining" Is Harder Than "Turning Positive"
ETF data shows a notable change: BTC net inflow of about $40.8 million, ETH net inflow of about $29.4 million, and SOL also shifted from slight outflow to inflow. A few days ago, there was a collective retreat; now the three major coins have simultaneously turned positive.
However, a single-day shift needs to be viewed over a longer period. ETH remains in net outflow over the past 30 days, and SOL’s 30-day dimension has not fully recovered either. BTC’s cumulative ETF inflow over the past 7 days is about $513 million, showing marginal improvement in capital reception, but whether this forms a trend depends on continued follow-up.
Key reference levels:
$BTC: Around 84,500, with 85,000 above as a recently repeatedly tested area, and 86,000 as the next observation point; on the downside, first watch for support around 84,000.
$ETH: Around 2,507, with the 2,500 integer level as the short-term bull-bear dividing line.
$SOL: Around 108.4, if the 110 level fails to break through, short-term chasing funds may face pullbacks.
Before results are announced, zijin tends to be cautious. What’s more worth tracking now is the continuity of ETF inflows, not just single-day figures.
Interaction: Who do you think has stronger sustainability in this round of inflows, BTC or ETH? Let’s discuss in the comments.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Is $AKE crazy? Has the sideways movement these days been just for this?SoFi's earnings-driven rally is really strong—yesterday's post mentioned a pre-market +4.8%, today OKX's xSOFI went straight to 16.59, +15.13%, climbing from 14.38 to 16.68 within 24h, staying near the highs; the underlying stock SOFI hit 16.57 intraday, +14.56%, marking the largest single-day gain since August 3.
What's driving this? Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, adjusted EBITDA beat market estimates by over $40 million, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance—every metric in the earnings report is proving the bears wrong. Fintech (digital banking plus lending) is being revalued by capital; OKX xSOFI tracks the underlying stock intraday with less than 1% price difference.
My judgment: this is a genuine earnings-driven rally, not just hype—the revenue beat plus raised guidance are solid catalysts; but with three consecutive days of gains (+9%, +14%, +15%), sentiment is heating up. Intraday turnover of 7.19% indicates intensified trading, so those chasing should beware of a high-open, low-close scenario.
Watch the signals: whether 16.68 (24h high) can break out with volume; if the underlying stock can hold above 16.65 intraday, sentiment remains intact; the most critical is whether it can close firmly above 16—earnings rallies fear a gap fill from a low open the next day.
#SoFi #xSOFI #USStockTokens
Not investment advice, DYORTrump calls to buy coins, the Federal Reserve coldly raises interest rates: who do you think retail investors believe?
Brothers, this script is just too intense.
On one side, the White House is exploring using federal funds to buy Bitcoin, with the strategic reserve executive order still fresh;
On the other side, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, personally appointed by Trump, raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, which angered Trump so much that he said in a "Time" interview: "If it were me, I would vote no."
You call this "America First"? This is called fighting with both hands.
But the market first believed Trump's words. When he said "discussed buying Bitcoin," BTC surged from 65,000 to 70,000; when he said "no war with Iran before midterm elections," BTC bounced back to 81,000.
But look closely, all these statements are "discussed," "planned," "in progress"—none have actually been implemented. The probability of the bill passing was cut from 30% to 10% by Galaxy Digital, and Polymarket only gives 17%-19%.
The market is trading on what Trump said, but the Fed is trading on whether inflation is still present.
A report from the New York Fed directly contradicts this: 2.9 percentage points of commodity inflation in February 2026 is due to tariffs; the September CPI annual increase is 3.7%, with fuel prices soaring 74% year-over-year.
So in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $544 million, with longs liquidated at $461 million, which is not undeserved at all.
Retail investors believed the "Trump rally" and chased longs, but the Fed poured a cold bucket of interest rate hikes, and leverage died on the spot.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ No#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Folks, on October 29th there's another tough battle ahead, SanDisk is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report.
The current expectation is revenue between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion USD, with confidence fully resting on AI data center demand and NAND flash price increases. It looks quite strong, but there's a big pit hidden inside.
The market isn't afraid of poor performance now; it's afraid of good performance with guidance that isn't explosive enough. Recently, Micron and Western Digital had decent earnings, yet their stock prices were still hammered badly. Because expectations were set too high, as soon as you can't continue to beat expectations, the money runs away immediately.
This time, when looking at SanDisk, don't just focus on revenue; the key is to watch two things. First is gross margin—whether the benefits from NAND price hikes have truly converted into solid profits. Second is next quarter's guidance—whether management has confidence that demand and price increases will continue into next year.
This matter still directly impacts our BTC. Storage and chips are the risk appetite barometers for global tech stocks. If SanDisk's earnings disappoint, the entire AI hardware chain will shake, and BTC definitely won't hold the 80,000 level, it will have to drop further. Conversely, if its performance is outstanding, it means AI is still crazily attracting money, but BTC won't benefit much since all the money is going into building data centers. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC 10月27日晚上，我在 OKX 买入了 0.602324 枚 xSNDK，成交均价 1299.3 USDT，实际成交约 781.34 U。订单截图附在下面，有兴趣的朋友可以对照看看。 先说说财报前的想法。闪迪将在10月29日美股盘后公布新一季财报。上一季度营收89.65亿美元，环比增长51%，公司给出的本季度营收指引是103亿到108亿美元。我比较看好它的存储业务，主要是因为AI数据中心的需求在持续释放，加上NAND价格和企业级SSD业务的扩张，这几点在我看来都是比较扎实的支撑。 业绩出来之后，我会主要盯三个地方：营收能不能超出指引，毛利率能不能守住高位，下一季度的指引有没有继续上调。另外也要想到风险，如果市场提前把利好炒作完了，哪怕业绩不错，股价也可能出现高开低走的情况，这一点我心里有数。 至于为什么现在买，这笔其实是财报前的小仓位试单，并不是重仓押注业绩。选择 xSNDK，主要是想参与存储板块的财报行情，同时把仓位控制在自己能承受的范围内。后面如果财报超预期，股价也能站稳，我再考虑是否加仓；如果利好出来却放量下跌，那我就得重新评估了。 说到底，做交易不是猜对财报就一定能赚钱，入场位Why is everyone so focused on the upcoming interest rate meeting? In fact, interest rates basically drive the fluctuations of the entire market above. Take rate hikes as an example: in reality, the bond market and interest rates are fundamentally linked. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond yields adjust upward in sync as an anchor. The reason is that if yield and interest rates become unanchored, frequent arbitrage activities occur, such as borrowing money from banks to buy bonds. This situation would worsen the economy, which is not the banks' original intention. Of course, sometimes the bond market also forces the central bank to regulate interest rates.
Rate hikes also cause global capital inflows. For example, with the US Federal Reserve raising rates, US assets become attractive. Global currencies are converted into dollars in the forex market to be stored in the US to earn interest, which forces the dollar exchange rate to rise and strengthens the dollar's value.
Rate hikes also drain liquidity from the US domestic stock market and gold market, including $BTC. The so-called stock-bond seesaw is the reason: rate hikes make it difficult for US domestic companies to finance, and the market holds a pessimistic view of corporate expected profits, leading to a depressed domestic stock market.
Additionally, gold and $BTC are global markets; capital is converted into dollars to purchase lower-risk bonds or deposited in the Federal Reserve, further draining liquidity from these two markets.
This is basically a relatively shallow understanding. Due to word limits, I'll stop here for now. #ThisWeekWillAnnounceOctoberFOMCInterestRateDecision Strategy halts for the first time in five weeks as FOMC opens today
Two stable marginal buy orders simultaneously stopped before the decision: Strategy made no trades from October 19 to 25, instead spending about $205 million to repurchase preferred shares; U.S. spot ETFs saw a combined outflow of about $770 million over two days, with prices suppressed below 80,000 awaiting direction.
$BTC around 79,600, briefly rebounded above 80,000 intraday before falling back. ETF net inflow for the day was $110 million, but all came from BlackRock IBIT alone, with zero flow from other products. 79,400–79,600 saw multiple supports, while 80,500–80,800 is resistance above. Strategy's pause is more noteworthy than ETF outflows, as it signals buying on a weekly basis.
$ETH around 2,305. ETF net outflow for the day was $88.58 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone accounting for $104.7 million, setting a single-day outflow record for the product. 2,300 was repeatedly tested, with no capital support signaling a bottom.
$SOL around 99.9, having fallen below 100. ETF net outflow for the day was $8.23 million, and about $49 million SOL was transferred to exchanges as monitored on-chain.
In short: Before the FOMC opens, Strategy has stopped, ETFs are propped up by only one player, and SOL has broken the key round number. All three coins are waiting for the same thing: who will come back first after the decision.
#Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 60,000 people received voluntary layoff invitations as Microsoft invests $175 billion in AI
On Monday, Microsoft offered voluntary layoffs to about 60,000 employees, accounting for 27% of its global workforce of 223,000.
This covers the US, Canada, UK, and India, including teams from Copilot, Windows, and Xbox, excluding data centers and sales.
Decisions must be made by early December, with departures by year-end; the company did not disclose how many it expects to leave.
This is not the first downsizing this year: about 8,750 qualified for the spring retirement plan, with over 30% accepting, and 4,800 were laid off in July.
Meanwhile, Microsoft plans to spend $175 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with quarterly capital expenditures exceeding $50 billion.
The money saved on personnel is flowing into buying hardware.
Earnings report will be released after market close tomorrow, with expected EPS of $4.71 and revenue of $90.6 billion; Azure guidance growth at 45%.
My view: The AI spending will eventually be balanced by headcount reductions; downsizing is not negative but a cost statement, so observe without chasing.
Invalidation point: Azure growth below 45%, or capital expenditure guidance raised again.
Which side are you on?
A: Downsizing to protect profits, stock rises after earnings B: Spending out of control, watch $486 first
$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN
#Microsoft #EarningsReport 盘面安静得有点不真实，BTC 在 79,800 到 79,330 之间磨，最高摸过 80,291 又滑回来，像在门口反复试探却不肯推门。你看到这根横线，会想加仓还是先缩手？ 过去 24 小时跌了 0.54% 到 0.76%，月度累计约 5%，已经三周连阴。恐惧与贪婪指数从 50 掉到 48，中性偏下，情绪没崩，但明显在收着。真正让我停一下的是衍生品这头：24 小时清算约 1.35 亿美元，其中多头占 9174 万。杠杆多头在 FOMC 前主动撤退，这不是恐慌，更像提前卸掉脆弱点。 市场现在交易的其实不是"加不加息"，而是"12 月会不会被迫动"。本次按兵不动概率 90.6% 到 91%，几乎被完全计价，所以真正的变量藏在 12 月那接近 80% 的加息预期里。换句话说，会议本身可能没惊喜，但措辞和点阵图只要稍微偏鹰，就会先打到那些还没清干净的多头仓位。 偏多的路径也成立：多头杠杆被洗掉一轮后，持仓结构变轻，若决议温和，挤压风险反而转向空头，BTC 有机会重新测试 80,291 上方，ETH 和山寨的情绪修复会更快，风险偏好回暖时资金更愿意回到高 beta 标的。但风险没被看见的部分是，$SOFI's earnings report triggered a 15% jump, but the stock price is only at half of its one-year high.
Both membership and revenue are growing, and next year's guidance is higher than the market expected. I can understand this rally.
What I care more about is the crypto revenue line.
On the books, it's $160 million for one quarter, but after costs, they only keep $1.6 million.
In other words, they're just helping users buy crypto and taking a small cut; the money basically doesn't go into their own pocket.
So don't treat it as a crypto concept stock to speculate on; its profits still mainly come from lending.
However, the number of crypto accounts opened increased quite a bit in one quarter, it seems retail investors are coming back.
I don't hold it, so I won't chase.
If today's bullish candle can hold above $15.5, that would be considered digested; if it falls back to the $14 range, then treat it as a one-day play.
When you look at earnings reports, do you check revenue first or flip through the fine print?
$SOFI $COIN $BTC
#SoFiEarnings上周一整周，全球最大的企业持币方一枚比特币都没买：十月十九到二十五号，零买入、零卖出，连续五周的增持停在这里。同一周它花掉 2.049 亿美元，回购自己 206.8 万股优先股，账上美元现金从 4.473 亿缩到 2.424 亿。价格同步跌穿 8 万，最低摸到 79,500 附近。这份提交给监管的文件把话说得很直白——钱有更急的地方要去，而那个地方不是比特币。 大部分人只看到「少了一个买家」，我看到的是弹药换了用途。它手上 848,517 枚、总成本 640.2 亿、均价 75,446，离现价不到 6%——再往下走，它自己先站在浮亏边上。过去几年每次恐慌，它是唯一还在出价的那一方；现在这一方开始给自己止血，底部的算法就变了。历史摆在那儿：2021 年 11 月那轮见顶，最先崩的不是价格，是它股票相对持币的溢价，溢价一没，买币的机器自动停。这次还没到那一步，但方向是一样的。 有个细节几乎没人提。指数编制方 11 月 11 日出受影响名单、11 月 30 日起生效：资产负债表被单一资产主导的公司，要失去指数资格。这句话翻成钱就是——要么筹钱证明自己不是只会囤币，要么被动卖币保住席位。靠被动#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Better than expected: Yes
HBM4 is gradually ramping up, DRAM/NAND spot and contract prices are rising, the proportion of high value-added AI storage continues to increase, and multiple brokerages have raised profit targets. The risk lies in the market expectations already being fully priced in; even if profits meet targets, if HBM shipments or Q4 ASP guidance fall short of expectations, it is easy for the positive momentum to be realized and then retreat. An additional surprise could be a special dividend plan.📉BTC back to 80,000? Don't rush to pop the champagne, but the bears' coffin lid has already been nailed shut!
Brothers, BTC is hovering above 80,000 now. Looks stable? Do you know how many people liquidated overnight when it dropped to 79,330 early yesterday?
But what you didn't see is that in the past 12 hours, short liquidations have accounted for 58%, surpassing the longs. In the last 4 hours, shorts have been liquidated by 9.36 million, while longs only 6.13 million.
Price is rising, shorts are bleeding, doesn't this script look a bit familiar?
Look outside the market, real money is coming back. Last week, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $442 million, reversing two consecutive weeks of outflows.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remain at multi-year lows, with fewer chips available to dump. What do shorts have to push the price down? Just talk?
But don't get ahead of yourself. The 80,000 level is not a solid bottom, it's a tug-of-war line.
Above, 81,800 is the 50-day moving average, and 84,120 is the real resistance.
The FOMC is tonight, before that old man Wash speaks, no one knows which script he'll read. In this double explosion of longs and shorts, chasing highs is just giving away your head.
My approach is clear: don't chase shorts, and don't blindly chase longs.
From 79,300 to 81,800 is the upper and lower edge of the meat grinder. Shorts have already laid down a batch, but the real direction depends on a strong volume breakout above 81,800 to count. OKB is just a pure worthless snack. The total supply locked at 21 million sounds impressive, but in reality, it's just for show—no one uses it, no one locks it, no one burns it, it's locked in vain. The 30 million TVL in X Layer is nothing in the L2 circle; others' yawns surpass its annual trading volume.
Exchange OS is hyped as the next-generation financial infrastructure, but what’s the result? Public beta runs on points, like elementary school kids collecting stickers. Real liquidity? Nonexistent. The RWA narrative is loud, but the tokenized stock scale is negligible. Compliance has been shouted for over a decade, but they haven't secured a decent license or even a shadow of one.
What's the most disgusting? OKX exchange itself is making a fortune, derivatives depth is maxed out, user base is there, but OKB holders get no piece of the pie. All the money goes into the company's pockets, token holders just stare blankly, like fools waiting for "future value release." Future? Future my ass.
Xu Mingxing’s "stability" mantra is so "stable" that OKB’s market cap can’t even reach a fraction of BNB’s. Other exchanges’ tokens are rising, but OKB is playing dead, like a vegetable.The core focus of MSTR's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest earnings report is not on software business revenue, but on the book volatility brought by Bitcoin holdings. The stock price is highly tied to BTC price, and the earnings report's book profit and loss basically come from unrealized gains and losses of crypto assets.
The software main business cash flow is stable, but the market pricing logic has long shifted to Bitcoin leveraged positions. If BTC sentiment improves, capital will prioritize playing MSTR's elasticity; conversely, impairment pressure will quickly suppress the stock price.
This bet on a positive return essentially wagers on BTC's sentiment recovery on the first full trading day after the earnings report, with high elasticity and risks concentrated on coin price fluctuations.A $400 million whale long position is only $30 away from liquidation! Big players are slipping away first, while retail investors are still holding on
BTC today oscillated between $79,400 and $80,800, closing at $79,841, with the $80k level repeatedly gained and lost; ETH is even weaker, stuck at $2,312, not actively following the rise, but leading the fall. The question is: who is buying? Who is running? $ETH
Big players are slipping away, retail investors are holding on. The BTC retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861, with massive liquidations; the big players' long-short ratio is 0.77, holding longs and watching, with bears dominating. ETH is even more amusing, the long-short ratio still hanging at 2.46, the bullish exposure hasn't been cleaned out at all, the bulls are quite stubborn. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $578 million, with bulls contributing 91%, BTC and ETH were cut by $235 million and $184 million respectively. The most exciting part is that a certain whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions, with ETH liquidation price at $2,181, last night’s low was $2,282, only $30 away from "going to the rooftop", urgently adding margin to survive. $BTC
No impact from outside news? The impact is big. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady on October 28 is about 90%, but the expectation of a rate hike in December has climbed above 68%; ETFs also showed no mercy, with BTC net outflow of $169 million in a single day, and ETH net outflow of $16.07 million
Today is not the bottom, it’s a "wait"—waiting for the Fed decision to land, waiting to see if the whale’s $400 million+ position will be topped up or wiped out #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Don't be fooled by “bulls outnumbering bears by 2.2 times,” more people doesn't mean the price will rise.
① OKX 4H went from 1.3025 to 1.3194, with a high of 1.3288. In plain terms: there's a rebound, but the 1.33 barrier hasn't been cleared yet.
② Gate has 2,660 long users, 1,228 short users, holding 11.07 million contracts. In plain terms: the bulls are genuinely crowded, not just fake hype.
③ Funding rate is 0.01%, not expensive. In plain terms: the cost for bulls is low, so they can hold on for a while.
Experienced traders know that a crowded rebound is the easiest to catch the last leg if you chase it. I'm bearish for now, watching around 1.29; if 4H closes above 1.33, I'll admit I'm wrong.
Do you think the bulls are preparing a big move, or just fueling the bears? $XRP #XRP The core focus of MSTR's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest earnings report is not on software business revenue, but on the book volatility brought by Bitcoin holdings. The stock price is highly tied to BTC price, and the earnings report's book profit and loss basically come from unrealized gains and losses of crypto assets.
The software main business cash flow is stable, but the market pricing logic has long shifted to Bitcoin leveraged positions. If BTC sentiment improves, capital will prioritize playing MSTR's elasticity; conversely, impairment pressure will quickly suppress the stock price.
This bet on a positive return essentially wagers on BTC's sentiment recovery on the first full trading day after the earnings report, with high elasticity and risks concentrated on coin price fluctuations.SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report is widely expected by the market to show operating profit climbing to a high level, but the core focus is no longer on short-term performance; it is on the industry logic restructuring brought by customized HBM4.
The era of huge profits from mass-producing standardized memory is rapidly coming to an end. Starting with HBM4, the fundamental logic wafer (Base Die) must fully shift to TSMC's advanced logic process manufacturing. Memory manufacturers are no longer independent players but are deeply integrated into the ASIC and customized wafer ecosystem, with capital expenditures and yield costs rising sharply.
This creates an industry inflection point: although HBM4 can raise unit prices, TSMC's share combined with complex packaging costs will directly compress the originally ultra-high HBM gross margin of over 70%. Future profit growth will no longer depend on who ships faster but on who can unlock the customized supply chain and maintain bargaining power.
When HBM completely transforms from a "hot commodity" into an "exclusive customized part bound by foundry," who do you think—Hynix or Samsung—can better withstand the dual pressure from foundries and chip designers?
Regarding SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report tomorrow, if I were to summarize it in one sentence: the performance will be very impressive, but the capital market's reaction may be quite cautious or even divided.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ENS
There’s a lot of big news today, but I’ll note a less popular one first: ENSv2 has launched on the Ethereum mainnet. The protocol has been completely rewritten, supporting 36 million names and over 600 applications in resolution, and they even issued a commemorative NFT. With an update of this scale, other coins would have already taken off.
But the price gave me a cold splash: OKX is currently at 5.145, dropping from 5.302 in 24 hours, down about 3%, with a high of 5.32 and a low of 5.029; Binance is at 5.129, down 3.13%, roughly the same. The funding rate is 0.01% at the first tier, and contract open interest is only $1.65 million, very quiet.
I casually checked the changes: the annual fee for domain names over 5 characters rose from $5 to $8, the grace period was cut from 90 days to 28 days, and the maximum discount for long-term registration is 44%. The protocol is making real changes, and fees are genuinely increasing. My judgment: the price on launch day doesn’t count; the real test is whether people will register or renew because of this version. I won’t guess the price; I’ll watch the user data for this version for a month first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
There were three ETF-related news all at once today, so why is BTC still moving so sluggishly at 80,000? The head of research at Galaxy said some long-term funds increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q3, with his SIGFIG clients adding $73 million; VanEck released a comprehensive ETF that bundles Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and gold together; BlackRock's BTC ETF index data is also going on-chain. In the past, any one of these would have been enough to trigger a rally.
I checked the prices: OKX current price is 80,413, fluctuating between 79,505 and 80,835 in 24 hours; Binance at 80,384, lowest 79,468, down 0.24% in 24 hours, both sides match up. Funding rate is 0.01% at one tier, slightly positive; contract open interest is $2.57 billion, leverage hasn't changed—news is flying, but positions remain steady.
The Federal Reserve meeting is in these two days, and the decision hasn't been made yet. I understand big money is holding back for now. As for when these ETF buy orders will start moving the price, I'm watching closely but haven't seen it yet.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My judgment: Q3 will be a record-breaking good performance, most likely reaching or slightly exceeding the revised profit forecast of about 77 trillion KRW, but the main contributor is the price increase of general DRAM, not HBM4. HBM4 shipments fell short of expectations due to Nvidia Rubin's delay, and the real profit boost will come after Q4, with Samsung also competing for market share. The market will focus more on guidance rather than Q3 itself.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google's after-hours earnings are out, how much real money did options traders bet this time?
Brothers, Google will release Q3 after the market closes on the 28th, current price 316.8, ranking last among the Mag7 this year, only up 2%. But the options market has already voted with its feet.
Will it beat expectations? Revenue is very likely fine. The market expects 127.8 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, with cloud business growth aiming for over 90%.
But remember the lesson from Q2: even if earnings beat, the stock still dropped 7% because capital expenditures exploded, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time since listing. This time, the focus isn't on revenue but on whether the capex guidance will be raised again and how big the cash flow hole is.
How are options positioned?
Mostly bullish, but with insurance. The weekly Call/Put ratio reached 2.6 to 1, the Put/Call open interest ratio is 0.72, Calls clearly dominate. But don't get carried away—the 25-delta skew surged to 13, put premiums are rising, indicating bulls are buying upside while also paying for downside protection. Implied volatility prices about a 6% single-day swing, in a range from 303 to 338.
My view: options money is betting that "cloud can hold, search won't collapse." But the real risk is in the call—Pichai has already said computing power will be handed over to DeepMind, capping cloud's ceiling from insiders. The direction is bullish, but don't chase the highs. DOGE is now at 0.0773, the price hasn't moved much, but the community is getting noisy.
Dogecoin Labs announced taking over the official DOGE developer account, and the core veteran developer Mishaboar openly opposed it. My first reaction was that they were trying to pull a shell game again, but after reading his original words, he’s worried that these people might use the official account’s name to push their own commercial projects, slowly turning Dogecoin into their tool.
This reminds me of countless times before, where the old community members dislike the new operators, and it ends up either forking or falling apart. Dogecoin still doesn’t have a decent roadmap and relies solely on a single tweet from Musk. At this 0.077 price, how much is true consensus and how much is inertia, I can’t say. Anyway, for coins with this kind of internal conflict, I always keep my distance first and wait until they finish arguing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 Trump claimed that "consumer confidence rose by 7.5%, which is a very large increase." This statement has data backing but contains a key misrepresentation.
The data comes from the U.S. Conference Board's October 2026 report: the Consumer Confidence Index rose from 84.2 in September to 91.7, an increase of 7.5 points month-over-month, not "7.5%".
Due to the very low base, this rebound exceeded market expectations, but the absolute value of 91.7 remains at a historically weak level. The Conference Board clearly pointed out that confidence is still in a long-term downward trend, mainly dragged down by high prices and persistent inflation. $BTC #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
Earlier, many said that mass production of HBM4 was a signal that all positive news was already priced in, but in the second quarter SK Hynix only began small shipments, and the quarterly profit exceeded 60 trillion Korean won with a margin of 76%. This does not look like the end of the positive trend at all; on the contrary, it is just the beginning of a new profitability cycle. Now, in the third quarter, HBM4 capacity is officially increasing, and contract prices for regular DRAM continue to rise.#Robinhood trading business growth sustainability? Recently, the trading business has seen high growth, with options, stocks, and prediction event contracts becoming the core increments. Active retail traders continue to flood in, the number of paid members Robinhood Gold steadily rises, and ARPU increases simultaneously. The company continuously enriches its product line, adding short selling, futures, and other varieties. Coupled with the Bitstamp acquisition to improve the crypto track layout, overseas expansion opens up incremental space, and AI investment research tools further enhance user activity, laying the foundation for sustained business growth.
However, multiple risks constrain long-term growth. First, performance is highly dependent on market conditions. If the US stock market enters a volatile downward phase, retail trading enthusiasm can quickly cool, and trading volume will shrink accordingly. Second, industry competition is fierce, with many zero-commission brokers competing for retail customers, causing customer acquisition costs to continue rising. At the same time, there is uncertainty in US financial and crypto regulation, and policy adjustments may restrict some specialized trading businesses. The crypto sector's revenue is highly volatile, which can easily drag down overall trading revenue.
Overall, in the short term, relying on product innovation and an active market environment provides continued growth momentum, but it is difficult to maintain high growth rates in the medium to long term. It is necessary to continuously monitor market trading activity, regulatory developments, and user retention, and to manage positions carefully when trading related assets. $BTC $ETH $SOL Tonight someone threw me a number, saying that Binance's XRP withdrawals account for 55.75%, and asked me what I think.
I have no way to verify this number; on-chain data providers have very different figures, so let's put a question mark on it for now. But the direction isn't baseless—on October 28, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. At this critical moment, some people moving coins out of exchanges makes logical sense, probably just fearing unexpected policy moves before the decision.
Price-wise, XRP is currently at 1.304, with a low of 1.273 and a high of 1.311 tonight, grinding within this 0.015 range. Before the rate decision lands, I guess it will likely keep oscillating like this, so don't expect it to give a clear direction.
Let's wait for tomorrow's data to verify the withdrawal situation. In short, unusual movements before the rate decision—better to think twice than to ignore them.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Combine the overall data for a simple judgment:
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows last week were 300 million, but 1 billion came in during the first three days and 770 million ran out in the last two days, indicating funds are moving back and forth between 80k-85k with no clear direction.
2. MicroStrategy didn’t buy last week, only repurchased 200 million in preferred shares, with a profit margin of only 6% from cost to current price. They are currently waiting for a clearer time or a more suitable price. Strive spent 511.4 million USD to buy 6,182 BTC at an average price of about 82,700, bringing total holdings to 43,000 BTC. The relay is coming, with another 1 billion USD planned on the way.
3. Long-term holders on-chain hold 870,000 BTC around 80k; no one moved when it dropped below 80k, indicating short-term holders are the main force doing high sell and low buy.
4. The Federal Reserve meeting is early Thursday morning; the probability of no action is 94%. It is highly likely there will be no rate hike, but we still need to watch Wednesday night’s core PCE inflation and GDP.
Bitcoin tested below 80k twice over the weekend but quickly pulled back. Currently, the bulls seem to be defending rather than pushing up directly, all waiting for this week’s speech by Waller. Personally, I think the expectations for no rate hike in October and a hike in December by the Fed are already quite priced in, so there isn’t much downside risk here. The key focus remains on when oil prices will drop; only when oil prices fall will Bitcoin have real bullish momentum to rise. Expect volatility in the first half of the week and a rebound in the second half, but the height may be limited.
Reposted from "Madman Talks Trends"