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#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Better than expected: Yes
HBM4 is gradually ramping up, DRAM/NAND spot and contract prices are rising, the proportion of high value-added AI storage continues to increase, and multiple brokerages have raised profit targets. The risk lies in the market expectations already being fully priced in; even if profits meet targets, if HBM shipments or Q4 ASP guidance fall short of expectations, it is easy for the positive momentum to be realized and then retreat. An additional surprise could be a special dividend plan.📉BTC back to 80,000? Don't rush to pop the champagne, but the bears' coffin lid has already been nailed shut!
Brothers, BTC is hovering above 80,000 now. Looks stable? Do you know how many people liquidated overnight when it dropped to 79,330 early yesterday?
But what you didn't see is that in the past 12 hours, short liquidations have accounted for 58%, surpassing the longs. In the last 4 hours, shorts have been liquidated by 9.36 million, while longs only 6.13 million.
Price is rising, shorts are bleeding, doesn't this script look a bit familiar?
Look outside the market, real money is coming back. Last week, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $442 million, reversing two consecutive weeks of outflows.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remain at multi-year lows, with fewer chips available to dump. What do shorts have to push the price down? Just talk?
But don't get ahead of yourself. The 80,000 level is not a solid bottom, it's a tug-of-war line.
Above, 81,800 is the 50-day moving average, and 84,120 is the real resistance.
The FOMC is tonight, before that old man Wash speaks, no one knows which script he'll read. In this double explosion of longs and shorts, chasing highs is just giving away your head.
My approach is clear: don't chase shorts, and don't blindly chase longs.
From 79,300 to 81,800 is the upper and lower edge of the meat grinder. Shorts have already laid down a batch, but the real direction depends on a strong volume breakout above 81,800 to count. OKB is just a pure worthless snack. The total supply locked at 21 million sounds impressive, but in reality, it's just for show—no one uses it, no one locks it, no one burns it, it's locked in vain. The 30 million TVL in X Layer is nothing in the L2 circle; others' yawns surpass its annual trading volume.
Exchange OS is hyped as the next-generation financial infrastructure, but what’s the result? Public beta runs on points, like elementary school kids collecting stickers. Real liquidity? Nonexistent. The RWA narrative is loud, but the tokenized stock scale is negligible. Compliance has been shouted for over a decade, but they haven't secured a decent license or even a shadow of one.
What's the most disgusting? OKX exchange itself is making a fortune, derivatives depth is maxed out, user base is there, but OKB holders get no piece of the pie. All the money goes into the company's pockets, token holders just stare blankly, like fools waiting for "future value release." Future? Future my ass.
Xu Mingxing’s "stability" mantra is so "stable" that OKB’s market cap can’t even reach a fraction of BNB’s. Other exchanges’ tokens are rising, but OKB is playing dead, like a vegetable.The core focus of MSTR's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest earnings report is not on software business revenue, but on the book volatility brought by Bitcoin holdings. The stock price is highly tied to BTC price, and the earnings report's book profit and loss basically come from unrealized gains and losses of crypto assets.
The software main business cash flow is stable, but the market pricing logic has long shifted to Bitcoin leveraged positions. If BTC sentiment improves, capital will prioritize playing MSTR's elasticity; conversely, impairment pressure will quickly suppress the stock price.
This bet on a positive return essentially wagers on BTC's sentiment recovery on the first full trading day after the earnings report, with high elasticity and risks concentrated on coin price fluctuations.A $400 million whale long position is only $30 away from liquidation! Big players are slipping away first, while retail investors are still holding on
BTC today oscillated between $79,400 and $80,800, closing at $79,841, with the $80k level repeatedly gained and lost; ETH is even weaker, stuck at $2,312, not actively following the rise, but leading the fall. The question is: who is buying? Who is running? $ETH
Big players are slipping away, retail investors are holding on. The BTC retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861, with massive liquidations; the big players' long-short ratio is 0.77, holding longs and watching, with bears dominating. ETH is even more amusing, the long-short ratio still hanging at 2.46, the bullish exposure hasn't been cleaned out at all, the bulls are quite stubborn. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $578 million, with bulls contributing 91%, BTC and ETH were cut by $235 million and $184 million respectively. The most exciting part is that a certain whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions, with ETH liquidation price at $2,181, last night’s low was $2,282, only $30 away from "going to the rooftop", urgently adding margin to survive. $BTC
No impact from outside news? The impact is big. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady on October 28 is about 90%, but the expectation of a rate hike in December has climbed above 68%; ETFs also showed no mercy, with BTC net outflow of $169 million in a single day, and ETH net outflow of $16.07 million
Today is not the bottom, it’s a "wait"—waiting for the Fed decision to land, waiting to see if the whale’s $400 million+ position will be topped up or wiped out #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Don't be fooled by “bulls outnumbering bears by 2.2 times,” more people doesn't mean the price will rise.
① OKX 4H went from 1.3025 to 1.3194, with a high of 1.3288. In plain terms: there's a rebound, but the 1.33 barrier hasn't been cleared yet.
② Gate has 2,660 long users, 1,228 short users, holding 11.07 million contracts. In plain terms: the bulls are genuinely crowded, not just fake hype.
③ Funding rate is 0.01%, not expensive. In plain terms: the cost for bulls is low, so they can hold on for a while.
Experienced traders know that a crowded rebound is the easiest to catch the last leg if you chase it. I'm bearish for now, watching around 1.29; if 4H closes above 1.33, I'll admit I'm wrong.
Do you think the bulls are preparing a big move, or just fueling the bears? $XRP #XRP The core focus of MSTR's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest earnings report is not on software business revenue, but on the book volatility brought by Bitcoin holdings. The stock price is highly tied to BTC price, and the earnings report's book profit and loss basically come from unrealized gains and losses of crypto assets.
The software main business cash flow is stable, but the market pricing logic has long shifted to Bitcoin leveraged positions. If BTC sentiment improves, capital will prioritize playing MSTR's elasticity; conversely, impairment pressure will quickly suppress the stock price.
This bet on a positive return essentially wagers on BTC's sentiment recovery on the first full trading day after the earnings report, with high elasticity and risks concentrated on coin price fluctuations.SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report is widely expected by the market to show operating profit climbing to a high level, but the core focus is no longer on short-term performance; it is on the industry logic restructuring brought by customized HBM4.
The era of huge profits from mass-producing standardized memory is rapidly coming to an end. Starting with HBM4, the fundamental logic wafer (Base Die) must fully shift to TSMC's advanced logic process manufacturing. Memory manufacturers are no longer independent players but are deeply integrated into the ASIC and customized wafer ecosystem, with capital expenditures and yield costs rising sharply.
This creates an industry inflection point: although HBM4 can raise unit prices, TSMC's share combined with complex packaging costs will directly compress the originally ultra-high HBM gross margin of over 70%. Future profit growth will no longer depend on who ships faster but on who can unlock the customized supply chain and maintain bargaining power.
When HBM completely transforms from a "hot commodity" into an "exclusive customized part bound by foundry," who do you think—Hynix or Samsung—can better withstand the dual pressure from foundries and chip designers?
Regarding SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report tomorrow, if I were to summarize it in one sentence: the performance will be very impressive, but the capital market's reaction may be quite cautious or even divided.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ENS
There’s a lot of big news today, but I’ll note a less popular one first: ENSv2 has launched on the Ethereum mainnet. The protocol has been completely rewritten, supporting 36 million names and over 600 applications in resolution, and they even issued a commemorative NFT. With an update of this scale, other coins would have already taken off.
But the price gave me a cold splash: OKX is currently at 5.145, dropping from 5.302 in 24 hours, down about 3%, with a high of 5.32 and a low of 5.029; Binance is at 5.129, down 3.13%, roughly the same. The funding rate is 0.01% at the first tier, and contract open interest is only $1.65 million, very quiet.
I casually checked the changes: the annual fee for domain names over 5 characters rose from $5 to $8, the grace period was cut from 90 days to 28 days, and the maximum discount for long-term registration is 44%. The protocol is making real changes, and fees are genuinely increasing. My judgment: the price on launch day doesn’t count; the real test is whether people will register or renew because of this version. I won’t guess the price; I’ll watch the user data for this version for a month first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
There were three ETF-related news all at once today, so why is BTC still moving so sluggishly at 80,000? The head of research at Galaxy said some long-term funds increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q3, with his SIGFIG clients adding $73 million; VanEck released a comprehensive ETF that bundles Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and gold together; BlackRock's BTC ETF index data is also going on-chain. In the past, any one of these would have been enough to trigger a rally.
I checked the prices: OKX current price is 80,413, fluctuating between 79,505 and 80,835 in 24 hours; Binance at 80,384, lowest 79,468, down 0.24% in 24 hours, both sides match up. Funding rate is 0.01% at one tier, slightly positive; contract open interest is $2.57 billion, leverage hasn't changed—news is flying, but positions remain steady.
The Federal Reserve meeting is in these two days, and the decision hasn't been made yet. I understand big money is holding back for now. As for when these ETF buy orders will start moving the price, I'm watching closely but haven't seen it yet.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My judgment: Q3 will be a record-breaking good performance, most likely reaching or slightly exceeding the revised profit forecast of about 77 trillion KRW, but the main contributor is the price increase of general DRAM, not HBM4. HBM4 shipments fell short of expectations due to Nvidia Rubin's delay, and the real profit boost will come after Q4, with Samsung also competing for market share. The market will focus more on guidance rather than Q3 itself.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google's after-hours earnings are out, how much real money did options traders bet this time?
Brothers, Google will release Q3 after the market closes on the 28th, current price 316.8, ranking last among the Mag7 this year, only up 2%. But the options market has already voted with its feet.
Will it beat expectations? Revenue is very likely fine. The market expects 127.8 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, with cloud business growth aiming for over 90%.
But remember the lesson from Q2: even if earnings beat, the stock still dropped 7% because capital expenditures exploded, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time since listing. This time, the focus isn't on revenue but on whether the capex guidance will be raised again and how big the cash flow hole is.
How are options positioned?
Mostly bullish, but with insurance. The weekly Call/Put ratio reached 2.6 to 1, the Put/Call open interest ratio is 0.72, Calls clearly dominate. But don't get carried away—the 25-delta skew surged to 13, put premiums are rising, indicating bulls are buying upside while also paying for downside protection. Implied volatility prices about a 6% single-day swing, in a range from 303 to 338.
My view: options money is betting that "cloud can hold, search won't collapse." But the real risk is in the call—Pichai has already said computing power will be handed over to DeepMind, capping cloud's ceiling from insiders. The direction is bullish, but don't chase the highs. DOGE is now at 0.0773, the price hasn't moved much, but the community is getting noisy.
Dogecoin Labs announced taking over the official DOGE developer account, and the core veteran developer Mishaboar openly opposed it. My first reaction was that they were trying to pull a shell game again, but after reading his original words, he’s worried that these people might use the official account’s name to push their own commercial projects, slowly turning Dogecoin into their tool.
This reminds me of countless times before, where the old community members dislike the new operators, and it ends up either forking or falling apart. Dogecoin still doesn’t have a decent roadmap and relies solely on a single tweet from Musk. At this 0.077 price, how much is true consensus and how much is inertia, I can’t say. Anyway, for coins with this kind of internal conflict, I always keep my distance first and wait until they finish arguing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 Trump claimed that "consumer confidence rose by 7.5%, which is a very large increase." This statement has data backing but contains a key misrepresentation.
The data comes from the U.S. Conference Board's October 2026 report: the Consumer Confidence Index rose from 84.2 in September to 91.7, an increase of 7.5 points month-over-month, not "7.5%".
Due to the very low base, this rebound exceeded market expectations, but the absolute value of 91.7 remains at a historically weak level. The Conference Board clearly pointed out that confidence is still in a long-term downward trend, mainly dragged down by high prices and persistent inflation. $BTC #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
Earlier, many said that mass production of HBM4 was a signal that all positive news was already priced in, but in the second quarter SK Hynix only began small shipments, and the quarterly profit exceeded 60 trillion Korean won with a margin of 76%. This does not look like the end of the positive trend at all; on the contrary, it is just the beginning of a new profitability cycle. Now, in the third quarter, HBM4 capacity is officially increasing, and contract prices for regular DRAM continue to rise.#Robinhood trading business growth sustainability? Recently, the trading business has seen high growth, with options, stocks, and prediction event contracts becoming the core increments. Active retail traders continue to flood in, the number of paid members Robinhood Gold steadily rises, and ARPU increases simultaneously. The company continuously enriches its product line, adding short selling, futures, and other varieties. Coupled with the Bitstamp acquisition to improve the crypto track layout, overseas expansion opens up incremental space, and AI investment research tools further enhance user activity, laying the foundation for sustained business growth.
However, multiple risks constrain long-term growth. First, performance is highly dependent on market conditions. If the US stock market enters a volatile downward phase, retail trading enthusiasm can quickly cool, and trading volume will shrink accordingly. Second, industry competition is fierce, with many zero-commission brokers competing for retail customers, causing customer acquisition costs to continue rising. At the same time, there is uncertainty in US financial and crypto regulation, and policy adjustments may restrict some specialized trading businesses. The crypto sector's revenue is highly volatile, which can easily drag down overall trading revenue.
Overall, in the short term, relying on product innovation and an active market environment provides continued growth momentum, but it is difficult to maintain high growth rates in the medium to long term. It is necessary to continuously monitor market trading activity, regulatory developments, and user retention, and to manage positions carefully when trading related assets. $BTC $ETH $SOL Tonight someone threw me a number, saying that Binance's XRP withdrawals account for 55.75%, and asked me what I think.
I have no way to verify this number; on-chain data providers have very different figures, so let's put a question mark on it for now. But the direction isn't baseless—on October 28, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. At this critical moment, some people moving coins out of exchanges makes logical sense, probably just fearing unexpected policy moves before the decision.
Price-wise, XRP is currently at 1.304, with a low of 1.273 and a high of 1.311 tonight, grinding within this 0.015 range. Before the rate decision lands, I guess it will likely keep oscillating like this, so don't expect it to give a clear direction.
Let's wait for tomorrow's data to verify the withdrawal situation. In short, unusual movements before the rate decision—better to think twice than to ignore them.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Combine the overall data for a simple judgment:
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows last week were 300 million, but 1 billion came in during the first three days and 770 million ran out in the last two days, indicating funds are moving back and forth between 80k-85k with no clear direction.
2. MicroStrategy didn’t buy last week, only repurchased 200 million in preferred shares, with a profit margin of only 6% from cost to current price. They are currently waiting for a clearer time or a more suitable price. Strive spent 511.4 million USD to buy 6,182 BTC at an average price of about 82,700, bringing total holdings to 43,000 BTC. The relay is coming, with another 1 billion USD planned on the way.
3. Long-term holders on-chain hold 870,000 BTC around 80k; no one moved when it dropped below 80k, indicating short-term holders are the main force doing high sell and low buy.
4. The Federal Reserve meeting is early Thursday morning; the probability of no action is 94%. It is highly likely there will be no rate hike, but we still need to watch Wednesday night’s core PCE inflation and GDP.
Bitcoin tested below 80k twice over the weekend but quickly pulled back. Currently, the bulls seem to be defending rather than pushing up directly, all waiting for this week’s speech by Waller. Personally, I think the expectations for no rate hike in October and a hike in December by the Fed are already quite priced in, so there isn’t much downside risk here. The key focus remains on when oil prices will drop; only when oil prices fall will Bitcoin have real bullish momentum to rise. Expect volatility in the first half of the week and a rebound in the second half, but the height may be limited.
Reposted from "Madman Talks Trends"On October 26, the US BTC spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $110.3 million, with funds turning positive again, bringing some relief to the market after continuous outflows.
However, I want to clarify a common misunderstanding: ETF trading on the exchange does not mean the fund simultaneously receives the same amount of new capital.
When investors buy ETF shares on the secondary market, they may simply be acquiring them from another holder. Only when fund share subscriptions or redemptions occur does it affect the capital flow we usually discuss. Therefore, a high trading volume cannot be directly translated as "this much institutional money has bought BTC."
This also explains why sometimes ETF trading is very active, but the coin price does not respond as expected. Trading activity and new buying demand need to be observed separately.
Of course, I hope to see net inflows continue to improve. But rather than being kept awake by a huge trading volume, it’s better to align actual capital flow with price performance.
If new funds keep coming in and pullbacks are gradually absorbed, then there is more basis for judgment. This current inflow is worth noting but not enough to guarantee anything in the coming days.
BTC already causes enough emotional ups and downs; there’s no need to misinterpret "someone changing hands" as "new money rushing in," adding an extra layer of expectation.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 📢 Hynix earnings report tomorrow morning! 3 storage targets with huge logical differences
$SNDK 1240 💾
SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND flash, not the HBM track. AI servers drive demand for large-capacity flash and enterprise SSDs.
Note the differences in sub-sectors: even if Hynix's HBM4 data exceeds expectations, the storage sector sentiment will only push it up with weak elasticity; if it falls short of expectations, it will adjust downward accordingly.
$xMU 896 🧠
Micron's core business is DRAM, with HBM as a new business, and prices tied to the storage spot cycle.
Focus on Hynix's Q3 HBM4 shipments and customer orders. As an industry benchmark: if Hynix's data exceeds expectations, it indicates strong HBM demand and Micron benefits simultaneously; if below expectations, the entire HBM sector sentiment cools down.
$SLX 0.0524 🏭
Long-term wafer fab usage rights are on-chain, with quarterly rent collection and locked rental contracts, unaffected by chip spot price fluctuations.
It is an RWA rental asset; Hynix's earnings report will not directly affect SLX's cash flow. It earns stable rent and does not rely on HBM order market conditions.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 先把上一轮的交割单摆出来：上一轮 3 选全中。BNB 做多 737.80→751.70（+1.88%），止盈 745.62 已触发；TRX 做多 0.32754→0.32827（+0.22%），止盈 0.32879 未触发；ZEC 做多 1,247.15→1,290.27（+3.46%），止盈 1,283.28 已触发。三单全兑现，命中率100%，ZEC 那一单我上的仓位比常规重一档。这三笔怎么来的上一轮写得很清楚，规矩就是规矩：我只报结果。 盘面现在什么状态。价格掉在八万以下，79,700 一带磨了一整天，距 9 月 21 日那个 87,392 的高点已经回撤 9.3%。22 到 23 号两天美国上市产品净流出 7.735 亿美元，26 号才有一家把 1.103 亿投回来——跑的钱多，回来的钱少。 反直觉的地方在这儿：未平仓量没跟着价格往下掉，25 号反而升到 669,253 枚。价格在跌、杠杆没减，这只有一个含义——该认输的那批人还没被清出去，浮亏还挂在账上。恐惧贪婪指数从上周 51 掉到 43，多头情绪在退，但退得不够狠。真要出清，指标得先见血。 真正扣扳机的是 28 号那场会。$ETH current price is 2,346.13, bearish bias, this rebound will most likely retest 2,296.3. 24-hour short positions were liquidated for 18.06 million USD, while long positions only 4.8 million. The rise from the low point mainly relied on shorts being forced to cover; no new funds are actively adding longs. Covering happens only once; after shorts are cleared, this buying momentum stops. Options are even more direct. The put/call volume ratio surged to 2.01, while open interest ratio is only 0.93, indicating new entries today are clearly crowded on the bearish side. DVOL at 53 is not expensive; people are still willing to pay for downside protection. The chart shows lower highs continuously, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, price hugging previous lows, consistent with this bearish view. The batch of shorts just cleared was originally fuel for a short squeeze during the downtrend; now that it's gone, resistance is lower when price falls back to previous lows. Bullish reversal condition: hold above 2,355.42, indicating new buying after covering; otherwise, this view is invalid.Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$APR surged with increased volume and positions. Trading volume reached 3.312 million USDT, 4.4 times the 15-minute average volume calculated from the previous hour; price +13.05%, positions +0.82%. Price and positions both trending bullish; during pullbacks, first check if positions remain.
$ETH surged with increased volume but decreased positions. Trading volume was 296 million USDT, 4.2 times the 15-minute average volume from the previous hour; price +0.69%, positions -1.16%. Price increase driven by position closures without new leverage support, limiting sustainability.
$BTC surged with increased volume but reduced positions, with buying and selling nearly balanced at the end. Trading volume was 201 million USDT, 3.0 times the 15-minute average volume from the previous hour; positions -1.18%. At the end, active buying was 56.8%, with price +0.17% during that segment. The overall structure differs from the final segment, suggesting a possible shift in market control.北京时间明早 8 点，SK 海力士发三季报，同时公布追加的股东回报。韩国券商估的营业利润是 77 万亿韩元左右，营收 98 万亿左右，利润率快到 80%。 营业利润我估跟预期差不多，可净利润会很难看。海力士 2018 年跟着贝恩投了铠侠，现在手里还有一笔贝恩那边发的可转债。折算下来差不多是铠侠 14% 的股份，按铠侠的股价记账。三季度铠侠股价跌了 39.5%，日元对韩元又跌了快一成，这一块我粗算要亏 25 到 37 万亿韩元。二季度正好反过来，这类投资收益有 63.3 万亿。 再加上韩元升值，手里的美元资产要亏一笔汇兑，净利润可能只剩 30 万亿左右，二季度是 93.9 万亿。所以明早韩国媒体多半会写净利润大降，可这跟内存卖得好不好没多大关系。 欧易星球上海力士有两个盘子。超预期那个，看的是 Seeking Alpha 上显示的每股收益，线是 6.25 美元。规则里写了，按页面显示的数结算，不自己换算。 问题就出在这个页面上。SKHY 是在纳斯达克交易的 ADS，1 股 ADS 只对应 0.1 股韩国普通股。上一季页面上 Normalized 那一栏是空的，GAAP 那一栏是 90.6BTC is about to rebound to a resistance level! Publicly placing BTC short orders! This drop broke below 79,000! Publicly giving the trade!
The logic behind this trade is very simple: to catch a weak pullback after a rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is right below the previous broken dense chip area, and it is also the resistance zone for this weak rebound. BTC is pulling up from the 80,000 mark, but the volume can't keep up, which is a typical low-volume bull trap. The area from 82,000 to 82,500 is full of trapped positions; the bulls don't have the strength to break through in one go. As long as the rebound stalls near 81,488 or forms a long upper shadow, it is an excellent position to short from the top.
Looking at the macro and news environment, the current overall situation does not support BTC running an independent rally. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is ongoing, inflation pressure remains, and long-term US Treasury yields are stuck near 5%. With such high risk-free interest rates, funds are moving to safe havens. On the tech side, Meta's nearly 100 billion financing plan has drained liquidity, and the risks of AI giants burning money wildly are growing. Coupled with the volatile Middle East situation, oil prices have temporarily fallen but could rebound at any time. Overall risk appetite is extremely fragile.
My order placement method is very strict. I place a short order directly at 81,488, with a stop loss above 82,300. As long as volume increases and it stabilizes above 82,300, it means the short logic has failed, and I will admit defeat and exit without holding the position. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC Jamie Dimon said Bitcoin could have an annualized return of 10% over the next decade. I read this news three times to make sure I wasn't mistaken about the person.
The one who has been criticizing Bitcoin for over ten years is now helping Morgan configure portfolios for clients. My first reaction wasn't excitement but calculation—if the money from his clients really enters the market, most likely he wouldn't want the whole world to catch the baton at a high point. In the same week, Morgan Stanley's ETF wallet only bought 80 BTC, worth over $60,000, with a historical total of just 6.45 million. Institutions are really buying, but they keep their heads down; their volume and position sizes are inversely related.
BTC is now just above 80,000, with a low of 79,300 last night. The bigger the official shouting long, the less they buy—I've paid my tuition to learn this rule. This time I won't follow the noise; I'll watch where the money moves.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve's decision will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, with the mainstream market expectation being no change!
The current federal funds rate range is 3.75%-4.00%, with a unanimous 25 basis point hike on September 16. Originally, the market priced a 65% probability of another rate hike in October by late September, but after Waller's speech on October 16, this expectation dropped directly below 15%.
So this time, don't focus on whether they raise rates or not; the key is to watch the wording and voting dissent! First, will the statement's description of inflation turn more hawkish; second, will there be any dissenting votes—there were already three votes for a rate hike in July; third, will the press conference leave the door open for December.
The real direction will be set at the December 8-9 meeting, which will include the dot plot!
Another key point: the decision comes just 6 days before the November 3 midterm elections, a sensitive timing when the Fed usually does not act lightly. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My answer is yes
SK Hynix Q3 will exceed expectations: HBM4 is the next baton
SK Hynix Q3 results will be announced tomorrow. The market has lowered the operating profit forecast from 81.5 trillion KRW to 77 trillion KRW, citing caution over HBM4. This downgrade actually lowers the bar for exceeding expectations.
First, let's look at what has happened: Samsung's preliminary Q3 operating profit is 107.4 trillion KRW, up 782% year-on-year, with storage price increases as the main driver; DRAM contract prices rose 21%–22% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND prices are also rising. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit margin was already 76%, so as long as shipments and prices are maintained in Q3, 77 trillion is not a high target. Meritz is more aggressive, projecting 80.1 trillion.
HBM4 is the next baton. The 12-layer HBM4 will be the main product in 2026, and the 8-layer version is for Nvidia Rubin Ultra, targeting mass production in Q2 2027. Nvidia recently lowered HBM4 bandwidth, which seems more about yield and multi-vendor ramp-up rather than demand disappearance. HBM4 has more layers and consumes more wafer per chip, so supply will only tighten.
My judgment: High probability of Q3 exceeding expectations, HBM4 will ramp up in 2026, and the 8-layer version will take over in 2027. For the first round of S2, I bet Yes.🔥Extreme divergence of strength and weakness! ZEC short squeeze buildup, VVV unlock tests authenticity✨
$ZEC $VVV
The BTC market fell below 80,000 with weak volatility📉, but mainstream strong altcoins have completely entered an independent divergent trend! The logic behind these two strong targets is completely different and must not be confused❗️
$ZEC is extremely resilient against the trend✅
Current price 1241, up 2% against the trend in 24H! The chip structure is a textbook short squeeze pattern🔥
Open interest continues to rise, retail long-short ratio only 0.85, severe short squeeze, open contracts exceed 41.1 million, the strongest buildup since September!
Core catalyst locked on November 5 NU7 upgrade💥
Block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, greatly increasing certainty of benefits!
There is a heavy 4 million sell wall at 1270 above; before breaking the previous high, chasing longs has low cost-effectiveness, patience is needed to wait for the breakthrough catalyst!
$VVV unlock window tests real strength and weakness⚖️
A super monster coin this year (up 1431%), currently in a critical unlocking period!
Only stabilizing above 27.90 counts as a confirmed rebound; falling below the 22–23 range means weakness directly. This is currently a chip quality verification stage!
Summary highlights💡
ZEC (up 137% this year): short squeeze structure, waiting for benefit explosion
VVV (up 1431% this year): unlocking under pressure, strength and weakness to be determined, shakeout
The rhythms are completely different, position strategies must be treated separately, do not operate uniformly!
⚠️For review and communication only, not investment advice, strictly control positions!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix's financial report is highly likely to show record-breaking numbers again, with revenue and operating profit expected to multiply year-on-year. How is the pricing negotiation for HBM4 progressing? How much capacity is locked in under the long-term supply agreement? Is there any concrete outcome regarding the much-anticipated special dividend? The answers to these questions are key supports for the company to sustain growth until 2028. Otherwise, even a financial report exceeding expectations would only result in a short-term stock price rebound. On the eve of the FOMC, BTC is stuck in a narrow range between 79,400 and 80,800. The repeated buybacks at 79,400–79,600 are the only bullish evidence, but the 50-day EMA (80,765) failed to be reclaimed, MACD's negative value is expanding, and the 68% probability of a December rate hike looms overhead. These three facts point to the same conclusion — this is a stalemate before the "hawkish pause," not the prelude to a trend reversal. 80,765 is the dividing line, and $78,000 is the level where the pattern fundamentally changes. Before the FOMC decision, favor a neutral stance with a slight bullish bias in the middle range; after the decision, wait for Wash's wording on December rather than the rate outcome itself. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The most critical aspect of $BA's performance today is not the order numbers, but the delivery and cash flow realization. Aerospace manufacturing has a long order backlog, but quality control, regulatory review, and the supply chain determine whether deliveries can be made on schedule. Delays tie up cash and weaken trust. If delivery pace and quality metrics improve and cash flow tightens, the recovery logic holds; if production or regulatory issues recur, the valuation rebound needs to be reassessed. Santiment released data during the day showing 30,000 Bitcoin wallets exiting. I usually glance over such obscure indicators, but this time I paused for two extra seconds.
Because on the same side, there's another data point: two whales dormant for three years deposited 2,571 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth just over 200 million at current prices. Retail wallets are emptying out, while old money is moving to exchanges.
On-chain analysts say wallet exits are a bottom signal, while the dump camp says whales moving to exchanges means they're cashing out. Both sides sound reasonable, but I don't fully trust either.
I only focus on one spot. BTC is now at 79,900, with a 24-hour low near 79,450, grinding just below 80,000. Some have even pointed to the 85,000 high as a warning of a death loop.
I treat on-chain signals at this level as noise. Whether the 80,000 line can be reclaimed is the key. If it can, those 2,000-plus whale coins are just a drop in the bucket; if not, it doesn't matter how many bags you hold.
At this level, I neither add shorts nor rush to buy; let both sides battle it out first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 10月29日盘后，亚马逊公布三季报。这份财报我对经营数据乐观，逻辑是：AWS继续加速。市场接下来要判断，亚马逊花出去的钱，能以多快的速度转成收入，以及前沿大模型公司之外，到底有多少客户在持续扩大消费。 我的基准判断是，三季度营收约2035亿美元，营业利润约270亿美元，AWS增速在40%左右。这样的成绩放在经营层面相当不错，放到眼下的预期里，还需要看四季度指引和明年的投入计划。 具体聊聊： 1、先把预期校准，营收增速放缓有一个容易被忽略的原因 目前公开市场预期，亚马逊三季度营收约2022亿美元，EPS约1.96美元。公司此前给出的收入指引是1970亿至2020亿美元，市场已经在等它达到或略超指引上限z 这里有个日历因素：今年主要市场的Prime Day提前到了二季度，去年则在三季度。公司说得很清楚，排除两年Prime Day的影响，本季收入同比增速会高出接近4个百分点，汇率另外拖累约0.8个百分点。 所以，看到集团收入增速从二季度的20%降到三季度预期的12%左右，先别急着下结论说美国消费不行了。部分销售和广告预算已经提前落在六月。 对于亚马逊这种体量的公司，营收比预期多十几亿美元，未Legislative stagnation, administrative frenzy! U.S. regulators strike on three fronts, has Washington finally bowed to crypto? Brothers, don’t just focus on the CLARITY Act stuck in the Senate; the real explosive news is at the administrative level! Just this Monday, U.S. regulators, without any congressional legislative guidance, simultaneously launched efforts from three directions to frantically build crypto infrastructure. This is definitely a historic turning point for the industry. Experts break down how fierce these "three-pronged attacks" really are: First front: OCC encourages community banks to issue stablecoins. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency directly called on small banks to study issuing their own "digital dollars," setting a new regulation implementation deadline of January 18, 2027. This shows the government has fully recognized reality, no longer rejecting stablecoins but aiming to bring issuance rights back under the regulated traditional banking system. Second front: Crypto giants obtain federal trust charters. Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity, and Paxos secured conditional approvals by the end of last year, officially becoming national trust banks. Although they cannot take deposits and make loans like regular banks, this means they can legally and compliantly custody client assets. Crypto giants have officially put on suits and entered traditional finance. Third front: CFTC builds a registration channel for crypto exchanges. CFTC Chair Selig clearly stated that since Congress is not acting, they will create an "optional" federal registration channel themselves. Even more explosive, Kraken’s parent company Payward plans to become the first entity to be CFTThe co-CEO of Coinbase's institutional business boldly stated that the second wave of institutional funds is entering Bitcoin. My first reaction was here we go again. This has been said from last year to this year, and every time it's said, the price dips first.
Currently BTC is at 80289, with a 24-hour low of 79377, truly breaking below 80,000. On OKX, BTC perpetual positions still hold $2.56 billion, volume hasn't decreased. The money is in the market, but the price can't be pushed up; I generally interpret this combination as someone quietly selling above 80,000.
Moody's also listed a crypto market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks in the next 18 months, with the bullish and bearish news coming less than two hours apart. When the news conflicts, I trust neither and only look at positions and price.
At this point, I neither add longs nor open shorts; I'll wait until 83,000 holds for a week before deciding.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Types
$ETH 2318, down less than 1%, leading with $41.86 million liquidations; exchange net outflow of 169,000 coins, hitting a nearly four-month peak, ETH ETF net withdrawals exceeded $1.2 billion in October and for four consecutive weeks. Support above 2330 is weak, the launch of Hoodi testnet does not equate to incremental capital returning, consensus on weakness is unanimous, rebound may still rank last.
$SOL 100.97, down 0.34%, lowest liquidation at $4.98 million; spot net inflow of $5.84 million, with Firedancer and Alpenglow providing themes, but ETF net outflow for three weeks and over $72 million in recent months. 100.50–100.80 is the short-term defense line, trend is relatively stable but slow, marginal buying is insufficient.
$ZEC 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only green chart; liquidations at $5.07 million, market cap only about one-third of SOL, highest leverage crowding; positive fee rate means longs pay to hold positions. NU7, halving, and privacy narratives overlap, strongest resilience but also most fragile in drawdowns.
Ranking: Strength ZEC > SOL > ETH; Support SOL > ZEC > ETH; Leverage fragility ZEC > ETH > SOL.
Watch: Whether ETH ETF withdrawals converge, whether ZEC positive fee rate reverses. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 The Federal Reserve's meeting results will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.
Most likely no change. The current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, and on September 16, it was unanimously raised by 25 basis points. The market pricing for another hike in October was 65% in late September but dropped to below 15% after the speech on October 16.
So the focus this time is on the wording and voting dissent.
There are three key points to watch. Whether the statement will use tougher language to describe inflation; whether any members vote against, as three votes clearly supported a rate hike in the July meeting; and whether the press conference will leave the door open for December.
The meeting on December 8-9 will include the dot plot, and the direction will be seen then.
There is also a timing factor. When the decision is announced, there will be only 6 days left until the November 3 midterm elections. The Fed usually prefers not to make moves at such times. $BTC #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Demand narrative is shifting from "training" to "inference," with the short-term fundamentals being nearly flawless; however, the market is already pricing in two things in advance — the possibility of NAND supply and demand turning loose by 2027, and the sustainability of current profit levels in a cyclical sense. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Leverage positions remain, but liquidations are light: Is this the "calm before the storm" for the DOGE market?
The derivatives market for Dogecoin is unusually quiet at the moment. Open interest holds steady around $215 million, and leverage positions remain substantial; however, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations on both long and short sides have amounted to less than $50,000. Despite the clear presence of leverage, large-scale liquidations have not occurred.
This stark contrast reveals two key facts. First, the overall leverage ratio of DOGE positions is currently not high. Liquidations typically concentrate on high-leverage positions, and a mere $50,000 in liquidations indicates that the vast majority of holders have relatively sufficient margin and strong risk resistance. Second, the narrow price fluctuations have not created conditions for forced liquidations. Liquidations require prices to quickly hit liquidation thresholds, but the current daily volatility of only 2.4% is insufficient to trigger most positions.
This calm is a double-edged sword for the market. The benefit is that without cascading liquidations causing liquidity shortages, prices can find support within a relatively rational range, avoiding irrational panic selling. However, the risk is also present: the large open interest acts like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead. Once the market experiences a breakthrough in a one-sided move, these poised leveraged funds can easily trigger intense chain reactions.
DOGE is currently in a delicate balance, with both bulls and bears waiting for a clear signal. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC so many big wallets waking up is not a good thing, think about why 58,000 didn't wake up until now.90% of people bet correctly on no rate hike, so what?
The Federal Reserve will announce the result at 2 a.m. Thursday. Interest rate futures pricing shows the probability of no change is already over 90%, compared to only 50% two weeks ago. In other words, the market has long finished trading the phrase "no rate hike."
When a positive outcome is known to everyone, even retail investors have already fully bet on it in advance, how much buying power will be left on the actual day?
Moreover, tonight's data leaves no room for the dovish camp. Durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the strongest in five months; consumer confidence is 91.7, while expectations were only 81; the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.997. With the economy so resilient, there is no reason for Powell to back down on Thursday. If he even mentions a rate hike in December, the current pricing will have to be reshuffled.
$BTC is hovering above 80,000, having touched 79,300 during the day; the 80,500 to 81,000 range was broken early. Every time it pulls back to 80,000 these days, it is unlocking trapped positions above, making you feel it can't fall further. If the 78,500 to 79,000 support fails, the next level is above 76,000.
$ETH is weaker, moving sideways between 2,310 and 2,335, with over 10 million short positions pressing down at 2,346. The real test is the support line at 2,246 and 2,235; if it breaks 2,240, it will head to 2,200.
High interest rates still hang between 3.75 and 4.0, money is not cheap. If it bounces higher from here, first think about reducing positions, not chasing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Late night market watch: This 15-minute level rebound of XAUT really has some substance.📈
The core logic remains the triple resonance of "oil drop + bottom fishing + Fed game." The oil price pullback eased inflation worries, the 4000 level attracted a batch of dip buyers, and with short covering before the Fed meeting, bulls launched a direct counterattack.
However, looking at the resistance zone of 4050-4100 above, how long this big bullish candle can hold still needs to be observed. After all, the real test will be Wednesday's decision and PCE data.
#TradingDiary #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $XAU Among the seventh batch of key enterprises introduced by the Hong Kong Key Enterprises Office, there is a Nasdaq-listed company called Solana Company, which operates the SOL treasury and validator nodes, holding about 2.2 million SOL on its books. It is the only blockchain infrastructure company invited in this year, and they also said the Asia-Pacific headquarters is set in Hong Kong.
The cards are good. But SOL is currently fluctuating around 100.9, with a 24-hour low touching 99.83, still not standing up. Everyone saw the drop below 100 a couple of days ago, and I was puzzled—after so many positive factors, why is the price still lying flat?
Looking at the perpetual contracts, it's even clearer: open interest is $3.2 billion, the fee rate is 0.01%, lukewarm at best. Real money buying hasn't kept up.
What SOL lacks this round isn't a story, but someone willing to commit three months' worth of funds in one go. Stories can be hyped up easily, but the money isn't there.
Of course, it's quite funny for me, an empty holder, to be worrying about this here.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Kraken's parent company is moving the US perpetual contracts onto the Hyperliquid chain. Would you call this a positive development, or a hole poked in decentralization?
I've thought about this, and it's not that simple. Hyperliquid itself announced on October 26: Bitnomial (a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse under Payward) will be the first regulated HIP-3 deployer, with NinjaTrader Clearing managing client accounts, pending regulatory approval.
Matching happens on-chain, compliance at the door. To get through this door, you first have to be on the whitelist. This is completely different from their usual permissionless approach.
HYPE is currently at 78.6, up 2.7% in 24 hours; the market is rallying first. My view is that this is about grabbing TradFi's landing channel, neutral to slightly positive, but don't expect US retail investors to suddenly flood in without barriers.
The real value is that the on-chain order book has been approved by regulators. I support this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HOOD Robinhood｜Prediction: Choose Yes
Robinhood's performance is highly tied to the liquidity of the crypto market. The current market consensus continues to be revised upward, with Bernstein setting a target price of 0.60, indicating good upside potential.
Risks are also evident: crypto market volatility is high, and if coin prices weaken, it will drag down the platform's trading revenue. At the same time, attention should be paid to whether NIR (Net Interest Revenue) turns negative.
This forecast approach: follow the trend to bet on the upward direction of the seller consensus, waiting for the earnings report to verify.A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order in the news flash today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-something dollars back and forth, the shorts are already sweating first. Around 2300 I also wanted to short, but was too slow to enter; now it looks like I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. The one holding for four years chose to exit, the one using 25x leverage chose to stay; these two contrasting choices make it interesting.
The fees are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open positions sideways without movement, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old chips above wanting to exit, and 2300 below can’t be broken through; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ Conclusion first: $BREV rose 16.6% in the past 24 hours (0.0800→0.0933), but the buying pressure is neither on-chain nor on OKX; it's on the Korean won market in South Korea.
On South Korea's Upbit, the KRW-BREV 24-hour trading volume was 48.26 million tokens (about 4.5 million USD), with 37.36 million tokens traded in the three hours after 20:00, accounting for 77% of the daily volume. The price moved 110→122→118→122 KRW, now at 125, with a 24-hour high of 128 (+16.8%).
On-chain activity is almost empty: only $1,795 traded on Uniswap in 24 hours.
On OKX, perpetual contracts traded $6.97 million, while spot only $348,000—perpetual is 20 times the spot volume. What’s really worth noting is the funding rate: out of the last 8 periods, 7 settled negative; at 20:00 today it was -0.0155%, and the current period is -0.1125%. Shorts are continuously paying longs, yet the price keeps rising.
My judgment: the rise is driven by Korean spot market, while positions are built up in perpetuals. Market cap is only $23.27 million, FDV 93.09 million, 4x dilution. Whether the buying pressure from Korea is still there is the real question for those chasing longs; for shorts, with funding rates this negative, the odds are not in your favor. For this $BREV move, do you think it’s short-term capital or the first phase of a new narrative?This week, three major risks hang over the US stock market: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell's press conference, and GDP and core PCE data. The market is most eager for a signal of rate cuts.
At 2:00 AM the decision will be announced, followed by the 2:30 AM press conference: the interest rate is very likely to remain unchanged this time, with the focus on Powell's wording. If he acknowledges inflation easing and leaves room for rate cuts, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage sectors will likely see a rush of capital; if he remains hawkish, emphasizing inflation volatility and delaying rate cuts, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SDK are likely to take a hit first.
At 8:30 PM, GDP and core PCE data will be released: if GDP is too strong, it will be interpreted as the economy holding up well, reducing the urgency for rate cuts; core PCE is the Fed's key concern—if it rises, expectations for rate cuts will cool, and the tech sector may plunge; if it falls below the previous 0.2%, rate cut expectations will heat up, giving growth stocks momentum to rebound.
SK Hynix's earnings report has just been released, and the storage sector was already in a battle for reversal, but whether it can launch a major rally depends on the Fed's macro gate. Earnings reflect the sector's fundamentals, but interest rates and inflation are the overall market's master switch. Even if earnings are good, if Powell remains hawkish, any rebound may be interrupted; conversely, if inflation weakens and the Fed turns dovish, risk assets like US stocks, semiconductors, and BTC are expected to rise in tandem.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Brothers, I'm numb, really numb!
This time I really have to thank this "toy company" that makes robots, it gave me a solid feast!
Why call it a toy company?
Go and savor the "mismatch between capital frenzy and deployment economics."
That sounds too literary, so in plain A-share language: the story is too rich, but the actual performance is disappointingly weak!
Concepts are hyped to the sky, valuations soar to unimaginable heights, but in the end, real profits have to pay the bill. What if they can't?
They can only crash down!
Look at the $UNITREE candlestick chart, it previously skyrocketed to 104.79. How many people got jealous and rushed in impulsively?
And the result? Now the truth is out, it’s crashed straight down to 93.50.
All the moving averages above have turned downward, forming a crushing pressure like Mount Tai.
The crazier it rose before, the more miserable it falls now. This is pure bubble burst, value returning!
My short position at the high of 102, holding until now, comfortably took an 83% profit.
When trading, never be brainwashed by so-called "grand narratives." No matter how big the bubble, it will always be popped by a needle someday.
I’ve already planned the next script: if it dares to struggle desperately and rebounds to the dense trapped zone between 96 and 98, I will be ruthless and decisively add to my short position!
$BTC
$ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议