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Why is the crypto market still rising tonight when US data is so strong?
Let's look at the data first. At 8:30, durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, the biggest increase in five months; at 10:00, the consumer confidence index was 91.7, while the market had expected 81. Both are numbers that say "the economy is very strong," and the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 5%, peaking at 4.997.
Logically, this should give the Federal Reserve more confidence to stay tough, and risk assets should be avoided.
So what happened? $BTC was still below 80,000 during the day but rallied back to 80,300 at night; $ETH bounced from 2299 to 2334; $SOL also climbed back above 100. Some people started saying "all bad news is priced in."
Honestly, I don't understand this kind of rally.
It seems everyone only remembers one thing: a rate hike is very unlikely early Thursday morning. So no matter how strong the data is, it can be interpreted as "no rate hike anyway, so it's good news." But the fact that the Treasury yield surged to 5% is being ignored by the market—when the risk-free rate is nearly 5%, money can earn interest just by sitting idle, so who would still speculate in crypto?
My view is simple: tonight's rally is mostly a rebound from the daytime drop and short covering, plus a bunch of people betting on no rate hike. The real bombshell will be on Thursday, when Powell talks about December.
Then we'll know if tonight's bullish candle is a rebound or a trap to lure you in.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
A comprehensive early interpretation of the rate decision
Maintaining the rate unchanged in October is a foregone conclusion, but the real killer move is hidden in the press conference wording and the December rate hike expectations.
First, the conclusion prediction.
First, October will definitely hold steady, this is an undisputed clear card.
The CME data in the chart has already revealed the bottom line, with a 90.6% probability of maintaining the rate unchanged. The Federal Reserve cannot create surprises at this critical moment and go against the entire market.
Second, the biggest variable is that this meeting does not have a dot plot.
This time, no new economic forecast will be released. This means the market has lost one of the most important coordinates. Without the guidance of the dot plot, every word and phrase from the Fed Chair at the press conference will be scrutinized by investors with a magnifying glass, becoming the sole anchor for market pricing.
Third, the guillotine of a December rate hike still hangs overhead.
The probability of a 25 basis point hike in December has soared to between 67.5% and 73.9%. This indicates that even if October pauses, the Fed is still hawkish at its core.
Specific predictions for BTC:
If the press conference is hawkish: As long as the statement or speech continues to emphasize stubborn inflation or that restrictive policies still need to be maintained, the expectation of a December rate hike will be reinforced again.
If the press conference is dovish: Unless the Fed explicitly signals that the rate hike cycle has ended, the market is unlikely to reverse directly. BTC may stabilize with reduced volume around the 80,000 level, leading to a short-term oversold rebound. $BTC 🚨$HYPE Don't just focus on price fluctuations! What bulls should really pay attention to is that it is turning trading volume into token demand!
Many people trade crypto only by looking at red and green candlesticks, but they overlook a core issue: can the money a project earns actually support the token?
HYPE's bullish logic lies exactly here!
📌 First, buyback and burn is not just empty talk!
Hyperliquid uses eligible protocol fees to buy back HYPE, then burns the tokens through the aid fund mechanism. Public reports show that as of mid-October, the cumulative buyback scale has reached tens of millions of HYPE. The more active the trading, the more opportunity for protocol revenue to increase, giving the token more direct demand support. Note that the income and buyback ratio also vary; rising trading volume does not necessarily push the token price up.
📌 Second, the ecosystem no longer only focuses on cryptocurrencies
HIP-3 is expanding perpetual contract markets for more assets, giving Hyperliquid the chance to capture trading demand for assets like gold and silver. The larger the market, the more users and revenue sources the platform can reach in the future.
📌 Third, what do bulls really need to wait for?
Not to blindly buy the dip when seeing a drop, but to observe whether key supports hold, whether rebounds have volume support, and whether funding rates and open interest are overheated. A volume breakout above resistance makes the bullish structure more convincing; if support fails, be cautious of further pullbacks.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $MEME Amazon's earnings report is coming soon. Besides AWS growth, I also want to hear about Trainium.
Amazon disclosed in Q2 that the annualized revenue scale of its AI business and chip business each exceeds $25 billion. It is important to note that the annualized scale is calculated based on the current business pace and should not be considered as completed full-year revenue, nor should the two be simply added together as independent new revenue.
What interests me is whether self-developed chips can help AWS retain customers.
If customers migrate workloads over and achieve suitable performance and cost, AWS has the opportunity to secure longer-term usage through the combination of chips, software, and cloud services. Such customer relationships are more worth observing than a one-time equipment sale.
However, from announcement to large-scale use, adaptation is needed. Whether developers can migrate easily and whether operations are stable will affect how many tasks customers ultimately put on it. Signing a partnership is far from completing all the work.
I hope the earnings report can provide more progress on actual usage and less hype supported only by promised amounts. After all, customers' willingness to pay continuously indicates the product has entered daily operations.
AWS is already very large, and the market's willingness to expect higher growth naturally demands more concrete evidence. If self-developed chips can continuously bring customers and profits, I think this achievement is more exciting than simply buying another batch of GPUs.
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $XRP
While many are focused on stablecoins regarding Ripple's partnership with Robinhood, I'm watching another development: BNY Mellon announced custody of XRP and RLUSD, and plans to collaborate with Ripple on tokenizing trade finance.
The term "custody," coming from a 200-year-old established bank, carries a different weight. Previously, exchanges held your coins; now traditional banks say, "We'll do it." I acknowledge this system—licenses are not obtained for nothing.
XRP is currently priced at 1.317, fluctuating between 1.284 and 1.321 in the past 24 hours, up just over 1%, with a fee rate of 0.01%, and no rush of funds.
People often ask me where XRP can go; I don't give a price. Traditional finance is starting to guard the crypto space, and that is worth more than today's 1% gain—when someone truly puts client assets in, I'll make a separate note.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order flash in the news today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-some dollars, and the shorts are already sweating. I also wanted to short around 2300 but was too slow to enter; looking back, I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. Choosing to exit after four years versus choosing to stay with 25x leverage—these two decisions happening simultaneously is quite interesting.
The fee rates are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open interest sideways and unmoved, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old coins above wanting to exit, and 2300 below is a support that can’t be broken; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Can $KO's earnings report today indicate that consumer demand remains resilient? For beverage companies, pricing, sales mix, and exchange rate impacts are more important than just looking at revenue; if price increases exceed consumer tolerance, revenue growth may be accompanied by a decline in sales volume. Today's results will provide real clues. If organic sales remain stable and profit margins hold, I will maintain a defensive stance; if sales weaken and growth is only supported by price hikes, the defensive premium needs to be revised downward. $ETH #Spot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take over?
#October FOMC rate decision to be announced this week
#ETF inflow divergence: funds only cling to BTC, full-scale counterattack is still early
Spot ETFs seem to be warming up, but funds are extremely "biased": BTC attracted $110 million in a single day, IBIT ended outflows and supported the 80,000 level; ETH, however, saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million, with large outflows from BlackRock dragging the overall market; SOL simultaneously outflowed $8.23 million, with high-beta assets bearing the brunt first. This is by no means a full market reversal, just a "selective risk aversion" by funds ahead of the FOMC.
The market fully confirms the divergence: BTC repeatedly battles around the 80,000 mark, facing selling pressure upon touching it. The cumulative outflow pressure exceeding $770 million over the past two days remains unresolved, and single-day inflows are far from enough to reverse the trend. ETH is stuck in a second consolidation range between 2313-2530, running close to the lower boundary. Although downward momentum has eased, incremental buying is lacking, with clear resistance at 2400 and weak breakout strength.
On-chain fund data also shows divergence, with flows contradicting depending on the metrics, essentially reflecting the current fragmented consensus between bulls and bears, with funds acting independently. Before the decision, the market will most likely continue narrow oscillations. In a structural market, avoid blindly bottom-fishing altcoins. Watch closely for two confirmation signals going forward: BTC effectively holding above 80,000 and ETF funds turning to sustained net inflows. Only when both are met simultaneously can the trend be considered stable. The "Fee Drain Fault" in the LSD Track: World's Largest Staking Scale, But Why Doesn't the Token Price Rise?
LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) and Restaking tracks are often seen as stable cash cows generating steady yields. However, a large scale does not necessarily mean strong token empowerment. If profits do not flow to token holders, a hundred-billion TVL is just self-indulgence by the project team.
Comparing these three projects:
$LDO: The absolute leader in liquid staking with extremely high TVL. But looking through the token mechanism, the protocol's staking fee revenue is not directly distributed to token holders, and the governance token still lacks hard cash flow capture. When you buy it, you are buying an expectation of ecosystem share, not real dividends.
$ETHFI: The business is indeed expanding, with crypto card payments contributing decent income. But its pain point lies in extremely random buyback execution: it was significantly reduced mid-term, and although it has resumed, it is far below expectations. Also, the team’s tokens are still continuously unlocking, severely diluting the positive cash flow due to selling pressure.
$PENDLE: No gimmicks, directly uses up to 80% of protocol revenue to buy back and distribute to stakers. It does not rely on treasury favors but returns real cash flow to token holders with an extremely rigid mechanism.
Conclusion:
TVL is not a moat; the profit transmission path is. When evaluating LSD/Restaking projects, don’t be fooled by scale. First check: does its net profit directly convert into token buy pressure or dividends through hard-coded mechanisms? Cash flow without mechanism constraints is irrelevant to you. Core Risk Warning
1. Once the "iron bottom" at 79,600 is decisively broken with volume, over 150 million long positions will be directly liquidated: 79,200 is the recent dense liquidation zone for longs, closely aligned with the October 24 waterfall low. If this defense line is breached by selling pressure after the FOMC, the next target will directly point to 78,000.
2. The 68% probability of a rate hike in December is the real "dark horse" of the FOMC: The October pause has been fully priced in, so if Powell clearly paves the way for December, the market will need to reprice the "second half" of the rate path. This is the biggest asymmetric risk after the decision.
3. The ETF structure with "IBIT solely supporting" is extremely fragile: The precedent of 773.5 million is not far away.
4. Open interest remains high, providing ample "fuel" for leveraged liquidations: BTC contract open interest has risen to about 669,253 BTC amid price declines, with traders holding large derivative positions even as spot weakens. Once direction is clear, volatility could be amplified.
5. AI IPO siphoning + tech earnings both bias negative: While the Anthropic IPO boosts AI sentiment, it also diverts risk capital; regardless of tech earnings results, the transmission path to BTC is unfavorable. BTC lacks a beneficial path in this combination.
6. Weekly Stochastic RSI has formed a bearish crossover: This is a mid-term level signal indicating momentum is weakening on the weekly scale, so short-term rebound characterization requires more caution.
$BTC $ETH $DOOD #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Bitcoin is stuck near $80,200, and Ethereum is consolidating around $2,326. The current market trend can be summed up in four words: extremely low volume.
This kind of market with less than 1% volatility is indeed dull to watch. The $80,000 level has become a tug-of-war battleground between bulls and bears. There's a lack of funds to push it higher, and on the downside, there are buyers supporting the price, so the market can only stalemate. Ethereum's trend is weaker, merely hovering above $2,300 following Bitcoin.
Why is big money holding back? The core reason lies in macro-level uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is imminent, coupled with several tech giants about to release earnings reports, making the macro environment like a "blind box." Risk aversion is strong, liquidity is scarce, so Bitcoin and Ethereum can only grind within this range, waiting for new directional guidance. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix (000660.KS) is currently trading at about 1.277 million KRW, having retraced nearly 60% from its peak, but brokerage target prices generally remain above 3 million KRW, showing significant divergence. Technically, it is in an "oversold but not reversed" state. The stock price plunged 24.3% in one week from 1.681 million KRW, marking the largest weekly drop since 2008. Foreign investors net sold 5.36 trillion KRW in one week, reducing their holding ratio to a four-year low of 48.85%. #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI Google's current GAAP EPS is 2.97 and the expected level for this quarter is 3.03, so to surpass it, it needs 4% more, and I bet that on the last day Google won't be able to reach that income level$QQQ earnings and interest rates coincide this week; will the concentration of the Nasdaq 100 amplify volatility? Major tech stocks are densely reporting earnings, with AI capital expenditure, cloud growth, and ad monetization collectively impacting index heavyweight stocks. The FOMC decision on the same day may drive discount rate volatility. If earnings are strong and the breadth of gains expands, the trend is healthier; if leading companies' earnings diverge and yields rise, the index is likely to be dragged down by a few heavyweights.With Anthropic officially submitting its IPO prospectus, first-half revenue surged over 13 times year-on-year to $16.29 billion, instantly igniting market confidence in AI trading. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring 2.82%, marking its largest single-day gain since September 21, and all component stocks turning positive. From the OKEx watchlist market perspective, risk assets show an extremely fragmented yet individually brilliant picture. U.S. Stock Leverage and Semiconductors: Sentiment Recovery and "Buy the Dip" U.S. stock leverage and chip targets are leading tonight. SOXL closed at 96.33 (+5.83%), aggressively leading the gains. On the capital side, SOXL attracted over $9 billion in the past two weeks, setting a record for the largest biweekly inflow in the product's history; TQQQ closed at 69.86 (+1.63%), with over $1.3 billion inflow in two weeks, the second-largest biweekly inflow in 2026. The top ten U.S. leveraged ETFs have net inflows exceeding $12 billion in the past month. Retail investors continue to add positions against the trend during the AI pullback, but the combined market value has shrunk by about $20 billion in the same period, so the leverage loss risk of "buying the dip" has not disappeared. Individual stocks: $SNDK closed at 1,294.6 (+2.50%), with the storage sector collectively strengthening. Elon Musk publicly stated that the memory required for robots will exceed any other field, adding fuel to the storage demand narrative, with Western Digital and Seagate both rising significantly. AXTI closed at 56.12 (+0.34%), benefiting directly from AI data center optical communication demand for indium phosphide substrates, with Q2 revenue hitting a record, and Q3 earnings willBlackRock's sell-off funds are fleeing wildly! Is the $BTC main force going to "bloodbath" the bulls?
Trend is king, capital is emperor! Brothers, look at the 1-hour chart with a continuous decline, MACD dead cross downward. The capital situation is extremely poor, with nearly 2.9 billion fleeing in 7 days, score -94, and BlackRock selling 136 million adds insult to injury. Although whales withdrew 900 million, the current market is very weak.
Personal view: The main force is "dulling the knife to cut the meat" to force the bulls to liquidate, most likely to probe down to 79,200 to trigger long liquidations, rather than reversing to trigger shorts! Polymarket's predicted probability of decline also confirms the pessimistic sentiment. Operation suggestion: mainly short with the trend! If it stabilizes near 79,200, you can lightly bet on a rebound; if it breaks down, follow the trend to short. $ETH $DOOD ⚠️ $BTW 4H: High FDV + massive unlocking looming, be cautious when catching falling knives!
1️⃣ Valuation divergence: Market cap is 2.2 billion, but on-chain TVL is only 39 million, circulation rate just 15%, FDV as high as 14.6 billion, price seriously detached from fundamentals.
2️⃣ Unlock countdown: About $170 million tokens unlocking on November 2, equivalent to 26-34 times the daily trading volume, heavy selling pressure.
3️⃣ Market weakness: Retraced 46% from the 2.77 high, clear distribution at the top, negative funding rate, fragile leverage structure.
Summary: A typical low-circulation pump and dump phase, extremely high short-term risk, longs must set stop losses properly, do not blindly catch the bottom. A new market trend is brewing after the market correction. How to seize the entry timing? Use the 【Moving Average Strategy】 to capture it! First: Wait for the daily chart signal to turn bullish before entering. Exit if the line breaks, as with ZEC, VVV, etc. Second: Buy on dips at key support levels on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts, and exit if the line breaks. Examples include BTC, ETH, HYPE, UNI, BNB, etc. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ETH seems to be holding up? Don't rush, maybe whales and ETFs are working together to unload!!
I said yesterday that Ethereum's rebound is weak, and the bearish direction looks more and more favorable. Today, funds still didn't give the bulls any face, ETFs continue to flow out, and early whales are transferring coins to exchanges. Once these low-cost chips are dumped, the pressure will be significant.
After dropping below 2281, Ethereum has been unable to break through the 2360 resistance #Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Memory bottleneck now, not GPU
HBM market $38B→$58B +52% 26E, $85B 27E. SK = 62% HBM share, *∼70% of NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs 50% est. 16 stacks = 576GB/stack vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Why bullish: Inventory <10 days (first ever). Wafers 150-200k/mo 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 squeezed → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM sees 20%
*Risks:* Samsung $8.7B HBM Q3 > SK $7.6B first time*
*OKX play: Long HBM leverage, short PC DDR.*Hook
ETF funds are flowing back, but extremely "biased"—BTC attracted over $100 million in a single day, while ETH saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million. This is not a full-scale counterattack, but rather a "selective admission" of funds before the macro decision.
$BTC is quoted at $80,335.6. IBIT alone ended outflows by attracting funds, showing a clear bottoming intention around 80k. However, other issuers' flows dropped to zero, resembling a "single-point defense" rather than a "full-scale attack."
$ETH is quoted at $2,332.92 (+0.24%). Large outflows from BlackRock's ETHA dragged the overall market down, with funds concentrating from altcoins to BTC. The resistance at 2,400 is obvious, lacking incremental buying, making the relay difficult.
$SOL is quoted at $100.63 (-1.22%). ETFs saw an outflow of 8.23 million on the same day, taking the brunt as funds concentrate on BTC. The psychological $100 level is under pressure, and its high beta characteristic faces a test on the eve of the decision.
Summary
ETF inflows are real, but they are "BTC flows," not "flows for the entire market." Structural inflows do not equal a trend reversal; waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision is more prudent than guessing the "relay" now.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Extremely absurd! Three major positive news events landed but no price increase across the board, with strange hidden selling pressure in the crypto space 🤔🤔🤔
Reviewing the market early morning feels increasingly strange! XRP, ZEC, and BCH all released heavy positive news on the same day, yet collectively they surged weakly and moved against the trend, with the real direction of funds on the market completely diverging from the news. 😲😲😲
$XRP received major institutional support: Aviva placed a $66 million large order, and a 22 billion fund entered the ecosystem. But the market completely ignored this, with whale addresses decreasing, exchange inventories increasing by 47 million tokens, ETF funds continuously shrinking from 1.8 billion to 1.48 billion. Once the 1.26 level breaks, it will head straight to the 1.11 low.
$ZEC's trend is even more fragmented. Against the backdrop of BTC dropping 2% this week, ZEC rose 7.5% against the trend and gained a net ETF inflow of 20.52 million. However, top traders have 80% of their positions short within 24 hours, combined with the mainnet launch on November 5, a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact pattern.
$BCH market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 60% of users holding long positions, yet it has fallen 8% over seven days, TVL is sluggish, and the active buy/sell ratio is only 0.83, clearly a case of many talking but few acting, secretly offloading.
The three major legacy coins' positive news has dulled, and funds are fleeing, with the core cause pointing directly to macro pressure. The market has now priced in a 77% chance of a rate hike in December, with the FOMC decision coming Wednesday, bearish expectations priced in advance, making it difficult to reverse the weak market trend!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Brothers, the darkest black humor moment in the crypto circle has arrived!
Retail investors are still bottom-fishing around 2300, but Arthur Hayes has already fled. 6400 ETH, worth 15.2 million USD, he left only one sentence: the market must fall first before it can rise again.
What’s even more heartbreaking is that on October 26, an Ethereum Foundation-related wallet sold another 2785 ETH, cashing out about 6.42 million USD. But note, the foundation’s sale could also be a normal operational fund arrangement, so it can’t be directly interpreted as bearish.
What’s truly worth watching out for is the capital flow!
On October 26, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of 88.58 million USD, with BlackRock’s ETHA single-day outflow of 104.71 million USD offsetting some inflows from other funds. Since October, the continuous capital withdrawal is adding pressure to ETH’s rebound.
My ETH short position average price is 2583, current price 2307, floating profit 1069%. But floating profit does not equal realized profit; a market reversal can still wipe out gains.
Next, focus on three key levels: ⚠️2300: short-term psychological barrier ⚠️2281: previous low support ⚠️2209: watch for potential liquidation risk
I don’t guess the bottom, I only watch how capital and price move.
If 2300 breaks, panic may further escalate; if volume recovers key resistance, bears should also beware of a counterattack.
Brothers, do you think ETH will break below 2281 next, or will there be a strong rebound first?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 It's the 4th time 😂 $BTC has fallen below 80,000 and then risen back up. Saying it's strong, it still can't hold above 82,000; saying it's not strong, it hasn't even broken below 79,000.
But Wintermute's view is very similar to mine: 82,000 is a reversal level that must be reclaimed; if it can't be reclaimed, it's just a rebound.
Currently, BTC has fallen below all short-term moving averages (20/50-day SMA are both below 82,000), RSI is weak around 40 and pressed near the lower Bollinger Band, volume is only 68% of the 30-day average volume, so it's not just a rebound that can change the pattern.
$ETH is similar. Now, Ethereum is stubbornly holding above the critical 2300 level, RSI is about 32 approaching oversold, but all four key moving averages (20/50/100/200-day EMA) are clustered overhead between 2,360–2,453. Coupled with continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, the technicals are dominated by bears, clearly weaker. Only a volume-backed move back above 2360 would indicate a trend improvement.
$ZEC, however, is much better, showing a MACD golden cross. It is now consolidating around 1216, RSI neutral at 48–50, MACD just showing a golden cross. Overall, it is stuck in the 1100–1350 range. The NU7 upgrade narrative on 11/5 supports the bottom, but the 50-day moving average at 1303 is still overhead, so the consolidation pattern remains.SK Hynix is very unlikely to exceed expectations this quarter. The main drag is the further delay in HBM4 shipments: due to the postponement of the launch and certification delays of the core customer Nvidia's Rubin chip, HBM4 shipments in Q3 continue to fall short of initial expectations, and some revenue recognition has been deferred. Meanwhile, HBM is priced under long-term contracts, so when traditional DRAM prices soar, its profit elasticity is weaker than peers, making it difficult to fully enjoy the spot price increase benefits like competitors do.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Many people are waiting for Bitcoin to break even.
History says: The day you break even is the most dangerous.The same strong sector, two different chip rhythms
$ZEC ｜Short squeeze structure, waiting for catalyst
$BTC broke below 80000, ZEC above 1200, current price 1241, 24H counter-trend rise about 2%. The most eye-catching is the chips: open interest did not decrease but increased, retail long-short ratio dropped to 0.85, shorts are fully squeezed; open interest contracts exceed 41.1 million, the strongest since mid-September; NU7 upgrade locked around November 5**, block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. But the resistance at 1,270 above is clear, a 4 million sell wall, short squeeze is short squeeze, the previous high is not a very cost-effective point for chasing longs.
$VVV ｜Unlock window, testing quality
VVV is near 27, but only confirmed rebound after breaking above 27.90 on September 9, falling below the 22–$23 area.
Both are sectors that outperformed BTC this year (VVV +1431% YTD, ZEC +137%), the difference is that ZEC is waiting for catalyst in a short squeeze structure, while VVV is testing quality in an unlock window. Different rhythms, don’t use the same position language.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The FOMC meeting is approaching, and the market expects about a 90% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged.
Currently, the mainstream market expectation is to keep rates unchanged; the focus is not on whether to raise rates but on the hawkish or dovish tone of the press conference.
If there is a hawkish stance, it means expectations of tightening liquidity, which is bearish for $BTC and U.S. stocks. If there is a dovish signal, it indicates increased risk appetite, which is bullish for cryptocurrencies.
$ETH $DOOD $SPY US stock AI rebound meets FOMC, can the strong index momentum spread to more sectors? AP reports that after Wall Street's rebound on Monday, Asian markets followed suit, but the rise concentrated in AI and chips does not necessarily mean market breadth is improving. Interest rate decisions and corporate guidance will determine valuations. If equal-weight sectors and broad trading follow, the rebound quality improves; if only a few giants pull the index, concentration risk remains during pullbacks.All positions are showing unrealized losses! Top whale is holding through triple short positions
Three short positions fully open, all currently at a loss, relying on funding fees to recover.
📊 Position overview:
$BTC short 5x: 2,613 coins, opened at 76,343, unrealized loss -10.59 million, funding fees +3.17 million, margin 42.02 million, liquidation price 137,300
$ETH short 5x: 106,400 coins, opened at 2,322, unrealized loss -1.55 million, funding fees +4.3 million, margin 49.74 million, liquidation price 3,723
$SOL short 7x: 719,900 coins, opened at 94.3, unrealized loss -4.77 million, funding fees +3.83 million, margin 10.38 million, liquidation price 302
Total unrealized loss across three positions is about 17 million, with funding fees collected totaling over 11 million to hedge. BTC is losing the most but has the thickest margin, liquidation prices are far away, so short-term it won't die. This guy is playing a long game with thick margin + funding fees, betting on the direction to come back. Holding such large positions at 5-7x leverage, ordinary people should not imitate.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today let's talk about two earnings reports worth paying attention to: HOOD and SK Hynix.
First, HOOD. The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $1.42 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%, with earnings per share expected around $0.56.
Robinhood is no longer just a crypto trading platform; stocks, options, and prediction markets are also contributing to growth. However, crypto trading revenue previously declined 38% year-over-year, and prediction market trading volume also saw a sequential drop, so this time the focus needs to be on whether other businesses can sustain growth.
My view is that the earnings could slightly beat expectations, but it's harder to predict a stock price rise after the report. After all, the market's pre-trading expectations will also affect the final performance.
Next, SK Hynix, where AI storage remains the core logic. The market expects Q3 revenue to exceed 98 trillion KRW. Demand for HBM from AI servers, along with rising storage prices, are favorable for performance growth.
But there's also an issue: when everyone knows AI storage is booming, what really determines the stock price is not just performance growth, but whether the actual data can exceed market expectations and the company's judgment on future demand.
Overall, I personally lean toward both companies having a chance to beat expectations, but I will be more cautious about stock price movements after the earnings.
This is just my personal earnings analysis and does not constitute investment advice; ultimately, it depends on the actual data and market reaction.
This should count as participation, right SK Hynix will release Q3 results tomorrow morning. I'll give my conclusion first: It's very likely to beat expectations, but probably moderately, not explosively. The consensus is here: revenue around 98 trillion KRW, operating profit 77 trillion, with a profit margin close to 78%. Sequential growth of 27%, more than 5 times year-over-year. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs. Why do I think it will beat? DRAM contract prices rose 13% to 21% in Q3, NAND up 10% to 17%. Looking at these price data, gross margin won't be bad. HBM4 has already started volume shipments to Nvidia's Vera Rubin. SK Hynix holds about 50% of the global HBM market share; as I wrote before, no one can replace this position in the short term. Long-term agreements have locked most of next year's capacity. I reviewed Micron's financial report and guidance; they said shortages will continue until 2027 to 2028. This essentially validates SK Hynix's supply-demand logic in advance. Some brokerages predict operating profit has already reached 80 trillion, higher than consensus. I think if the exchange rate impact is weaker than expected, a profit margin close to 80% is possible. But I do have concerns. The won's appreciation has already cut consensus by 5% to 6%. The exchange rate is still a drag. Broker opinions vary widely, with operating profit forecasts ranging from 70 trillion to 80 trillion. What I care about most is the HBM4 volume ramp; if it falls short of expectations, it will directly pressure the numbers. One more thing: the stock price has pulled back about 30% recently. I think this is not doubting the current numbers, but worrying whether AI demand can sustain. So the question is not just whether it will beat, but also what happens to the stock price after the beat SK Hynix is going to release its Q3 earnings report tomorrow, and I personally am optimistic about the results exceeding expectations.
There are several main reasons:
① DRAM and NAND prices continue to rise, which should have a significant positive impact on revenue and profits.
② AI computing power demand remains strong, and HBM high-bandwidth memory is still in short supply; Hynix is one of the main beneficiaries.
③ Some institutions' profit forecasts have already surpassed the market consensus, indicating there is room for the results to beat expectations further.
Of course, there is still some uncertainty regarding the shipment progress of HBM4.
Overall, I lean towards a slight beat of expectations in the Q3 earnings report, with a subjective probability of 75%–80% from YES.
Let's see tomorrow if this judgment holds true. 😂$BTC 79.6%, the main coin is still in the hands of individuals.
The main coin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals.
River's chart breaks it down clearly. Among the tradable main coins, individuals hold 79.6%, while funds and ETFs combined only have 8.5%. Individuals hold more than 9 times what institutions do.
Bonds, stocks, and gold have been mostly held by institutions for hundreds of years. The main coin is different; after more than a decade, the majority is still in individual hands.
Why can ETF flows of just one or two hundred million dollars cause such a stir? Because the 8.5% held by institutions is active money moving in and out of the market daily, while the 79.6% held by individuals mostly stays put. The real factor determining daily prices is the flow of active money, not the size of the total holdings.
River says this will change in the future. Institutional share will only rise, slowly following the path of gold.
But that is a slow variable. Today's structure has not changed yet.
The main coin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC US stock market opened for one hour, BTC made a V-shape move, almost returning to the starting point.
In the first 5 minutes after the 21:30 open, trading volume was 4 times the usual, first surging to 80,330, then hammered back to 79,890 half an hour later; at 22:25 it pulled back up to 80,360 in one go. That pullback was the largest 5-minute trading volume in the US spot market since the open, about 8 times the usual.
At the same time, the Nasdaq rose about 0.7%, while the coin price basically stayed flat for the hour. US stock buying came in but didn’t bring the coin along. The dip below 79,900 looks like US spot market buyers picking up at a low.
Today’s upper boundary at 80,500 was tested once but not broken. Without breaking above, it’s still moving back and forth within the range, with the lower boundary around 79,500. What the heck? $BTC ETF funds are actually zero! What big move are these Wall Street old foxes hiding?
Last night when Bitcoin dropped below 80,000, I guess many friends were scared and sold at a loss, but I wasn’t panicking this morning. Instead, I watched the ETF fund flows all night and found something very interesting: those Wall Street old foxes collectively played a disappearing act.
First, about Bitcoin, yesterday the ETF fund inflows and outflows were all zero! You read that right, zero. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still actively selling, with 16.94 million running out on the 23rd, but once it hit the critical 80,000 level, they just held their fire. What does this mean? It means institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears dare to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Now look at $ETH, the only one with fund inflows! While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly sneaked in and bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total market into a net inflow. They were still selling a couple of days ago, but now at the 2300 level, institutions clearly think the price drop has become cost-effective and have started building positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today’s market.Positive correlation is a bit off, everyone is running faster than Cao Cao
The crypto market and US stocks show a clear divergence of "pre-market rush, immediate realization at open": the three major US stock indices opened higher and stronger, while BTC, ETH, and SOL did not continue to follow upward at the moment US stocks opened, but instead gave back the pre-market rebound gains accordingly.
Boosted by the US stock futures turning positive and Brent crude oil falling below $110, the crypto market reacted early. $BTC quickly rose from $79,744 to $80,230, $SOL pulled back from $99 to $100, a typical short-term rebound driven by improving macro sentiment.
US stocks remain in a high-level consolidation, while BTC, $ETH, and SOL continue to decline and test lows, giving back all the pre-market gains, forming a small intraday "door-drawing" pattern.
The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting officially starts today, with the rate decision announced tomorrow, followed by Microsoft and Google earnings after the market on Wednesday, and Amazon earnings on Thursday. Before these major events, high-leverage funds in the crypto market tend to reduce positions and lock in profits at the best liquidity time when US stocks open, rather than chasing highs.
Coincidentally, the three major coins are all stuck at extremely sensitive round/critical levels—BTC at $80,000, ETH at $2,300, SOL at $100. If the Nasdaq cannot further extend gains during the US stock midday session, caution is needed for potential "pin bar" liquidations below these key round numbers targeting long stop-loss orders in crypto.Community leaders are calling on companies to fund core development, which is more sustainable than just pumping the price
Today I came across a seemingly inconspicuous but increasingly important piece of news. Mishaboar, a respected figure in the Dogecoin community, posted a call to those companies profiting from Dogecoin to start funding the network's open-source development. He specifically named: maintenance of Dogecoin Core, code review, and research on technical proposals—these tasks need people and financial support.
People used to say Dogecoin is "community-driven," but driving it can't rely on slogans alone. The core code needs maintenance, security vulnerabilities need fixing, and new proposals require research—all of which need real resources. Mishaboar’s message came right after the establishment of Dogecoin Labs, where several product and development teams have come together, and the community is seriously considering "who will support the foundation."
The price today is 0.077, still grinding within a descending channel on the daily chart, with a 24-hour low of 0.07552. But compared to the candlestick chart, I care more about this kind of discussion. Something that has lasted thirteen years doesn’t rely on pumping every time; it relies on people willing to handle the least glamorous but most critical tasks when no one is watching. $DOGE, I’m holding on, waiting for them to lay a deeper foundation.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix's Korean stock has recently been fluctuating at a high level, with the core driving force coming from AI computing power boosting HBM demand. HBM4 is gradually ramping up, driving up the average price of DRAM, combined with a large buyback plan, providing ample profit elasticity. The market is optimistic about the continuation of the storage upcycle, and institutions generally give a somewhat optimistic target price. The risk lies in the possibility that if AI capital expenditure slows down or competitors expand production beyond expectations, storage prices may come under pressure, suppressing the stock price. In the short term, focus on this Q3 earnings report and subsequent performance guidance, as volatility is high, making it suitable to track the fulfillment of HBM orders. $BTC is fluctuating around the 80,000 mark, and there are already many voices of reversal in the market, but the current conditions are actually not sufficient. This week will be packed with news, and the bullish and bearish variables are significant.
Several key events this week are worth closely watching: Hynix's earnings report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the market generally expecting rates to remain unchanged; on Friday, SanDisk's earnings report will come out. If AI-related earnings provide optimistic forecasts, it could boost the tech sector, and the crypto market is also expected to benefit accordingly.
However, the hidden risks in the market cannot be ignored: funding rates remain high, long positions are crowded, and floating chips have not been fully cleared. As long as this part of the longs has not been cleaned out, even if a rebound occurs, the upward space will be suppressed. This is the core contradiction in the current market.
To confirm a trend reversal, a clear signal is needed: a pullback near 79,200, even a brief volume-driven break below, followed by a volume-driven recovery to complete the bottoming structure. Only when this structure appears does the foundation for strength exist. Before that, the market will most likely continue to grind at low levels, so do not prematurely take heavy positions to bet on a reversal. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ For $BTC to open up rebound space, first see if the upper boundary in the past 24 hours can truly become support. I will treat around $80,702 as the next observation line and will not directly consider the back-and-forth trading above $80,000 as a breakout.
Kraken's public quote is about $80,186, with the 24-hour low at $79,379, still within this range. Johnny's additional reminder leans more towards trading discipline: frequent trades during consolidation can easily erode principal, so wait for the market to reach planned positions when necessary. This is not a clear bullish or bearish signal, and I will not add a direction on his behalf.
My judgment criteria are: after breaking above the upper boundary, if the close holds above it and then the pullback does not break it, only then will the range observation be upgraded to an upward recovery; if it spikes up but then falls back below the upper boundary and fails to close back above, the breakout assumption fails. If the downside cannot even hold $80,000, then withdraw the expectation of strengthening first, rather than continuously lowering your confirmation standards.
Overall, at this stage, the most important distinction is between rebounds within the range and support outside the range. Without enough publicly verifiable project catalysts, I do not consider scattered position updates as opportunities, nor do I compensate for waiting by increasing frequency. Near the upper boundary, do you prefer to look at the closing position left or the volume-price coordination during the pullback? This is just a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.So boring, the market is too lousy. A graduate student in economics simply posts a bit to talk about the relationship between stocks, gold, banks, bond markets, and exchange rates, and can add a crypto circle ($BTC )
Why is everyone so focused on the upcoming interest rate meeting? In fact, interest rates basically drive the fluctuations of the entire market above. Take rate hikes as an example, in fact, the bond market and interest rates are basically linked; generally, when interest rates rise, bond yields will be adjusted upward accordingly.
The reason is that if yield and interest rates become unanchored, there will often be a lot of arbitrage behavior, borrowing money from banks to buy bonds, which would worsen the economy. This is not the bank's original intention, although sometimes the bond market also forces the central bank to regulate interest rates.
Then rate hikes will also cause global capital inflows. Take the United States as an example: when the Federal Reserve raises rates, US assets become attractive, and global currencies will be settled into dollars in the forex market to be stored in the US to earn interest, etc., which forces the dollar exchange rate to rise and strengthens the dollar's value.
Rate hikes also drain liquidity from the US domestic stock market and gold liquidity, including $BTC. People say stocks and bonds are a seesaw, and this is the reason: rate hikes make it difficult for US domestic companies to finance, the market holds a pessimistic view of corporate expected profits, and thus the domestic stock market declines.
Additionally, gold and $BTC are global markets; capital settles into dollars to buy lower-risk bonds or deposits at the Federal Reserve, further draining liquidity from these two markets.
Basically, the above is a relatively shallow understanding. Due to word limits, I'll stop here for now.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Storage still has stories to tell #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google's Q3 2026 earnings report is very likely to deliver revenue and cloud business results that are stronger than expected, but can it truly be considered "above expectations"?
Revenue is about $111.6 billion, up 27.6% year-over-year, possibly exceeding expectations
EPS is about $2.94, up 2.4% year-over-year, facing considerable pressure
Google Cloud is about $29.16 billion, up around 92% year-over-year, the biggest highlight
Search ads about $65 billion, up about 15% year-over-year
Moderate growth
YouTube ads about $11.3 billion, up about 10% year-over-year
Stable but limited elasticity
Profit side faces pressure: third-party computing power leasing, depreciation, data center operating costs, and AI hiring will all suppress profit margins.
Free cash flow is a hidden risk: Q2 free cash flow has already turned negative, and the market will be very sensitive.
Capital expenditure guidance may remain high: full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance is already between $195 billion and $205 billion, with some institutions expecting it to continue rising in 2027.
Cloud growth base is very high: Q2 cloud growth was 82%, Q3 market expectations are already above 90%, the higher the expectations, the harder it is to create surprises.
Probability of EPS exceeding expectations: medium to low, with significant profit margin pressure
I think the possibility of a No is high
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 $H100 ok this is human lighter trading volume less than 20k dollars a day weight accounts for 45% own 5% really abstractPrediction markets show a 93.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October. The whale account elmcap2 has heavily bet $2.5 million on no change, with a historical win rate exceeding 90%. Influenced by officials' statements of "willing to wait for data" and pressure from the bond market, market consensus has shifted to a pause in October, with the focus of speculation completely moving to whether rate hikes will resume in December. $BTC $ETH $SOL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 "161 to 148: SpaceX's Crypto Mirror Reflects More Than the Stock Itself"
On June 12, SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq priced at $135, closing the first day at 161, up 19%. Four months later, its crypto mirrors—Backpack’s tokenized SPCX, Robinhood’s stock tokens, and various perpetual stock contracts—are all neatly anchored around 148.
First, let's look at a structural oddity. CoinCryptoRank shows: SPCX-related perpetual contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.63 billion, while spot tokens only about $40 million. The leverage side is forty times the ownership side. In crypto markets, this is a typical "channel-driven" phenomenon: the vast majority of exposure is not about wanting the stock itself, but a 24/7 leveraged window to express views on SpaceX. Backpack’s 1:1 redeemable real share version has a market cap just over $10 million, with only $22 million in volume—true "ownership" is extremely quiet.
The quietness is justified. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026, a full-year loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, and a cumulative loss of about $41.3 billion since inception. The only profitable segment, Starlink, contributed $11.39 billion in revenue, but both launches and xAI are burning cash. New Street Research sets a $165 target price, with the core bet precisely on the $575 billion valuation option of xAI—in other words, analysts price the "future company," not the "current company."
On the supply side, only about 5% of IPO shares are freely tradable, and Musk’s voting rights still exceed 50%. Scarce chips support the price but also mean that once lock-up expires or index inclusion-driven buying fades, the market depth will be very thin. From the first day’s 161 to today’s 148, about -8%, the drop isn’t large, but every rebound is weak.
My judgment: Nasdaq’s SPCX is a scarcity narrative, crypto’s SPCX is a leverage narrative. Both anchor to the same price but are driven completely differently—one side fears not being able to buy, the other fears not being able to exit quickly. When US stocks are closed and crypto perpetuals trade as usual, the "SPCX price" you see is actually just leverage.
Key levels: Crypto mirrors look at 144.9 (today’s low); holding this means there’s still a chance above 150; Nasdaq side looks at 161 first-day close price—failure to return means a typical "IPO sentiment peak."
Discussion: The same stock, four prices (Nasdaq, Backpack, Robinhood, various perpetuals)—which one is the "real" SPCX?
My answer: All four are, but none are. They share one anchor (the real stock price) but each carries different traders, leverage, and time perspectives. The 1.4% cross-exchange price difference shows arbitrage opportunities never disappeared and also that this market is still too thin and too new.
Poll: Who do you think are the main buyers of SPCX crypto mirrors—A. Non-US retail investors who can’t buy US stocks; B. 24/7 leveraged traders; C. Option players betting on xAI spin-off; D. Arbitrage bots.
I choose B. The 40x perpetual volume relative to spot says it all: what they want is never SpaceX itself, but a market that never closes.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #SPCX #TokenizedStocks$BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
BTC has been consolidating around the 79,600 level for four days. The $80,000 mark has been repeatedly pierced and reclaimed, showing a tense trend that hides the risk of a breakout.
Technical boundaries are clear: 80,000 is the short-term strength/weakness dividing line. The 81,000-82,000 range above acts as a resistance zone in the downtrend; only a firm break above 83,000 confirms a rebound. On the downside, if 80,000 is decisively broken, there is almost no strong support until the 75,000 range, and the decline rate will accelerate significantly.
Under the clear macro outlook lies hidden risk: The probability of maintaining rates in October exceeds 90%, but the market is pricing in a "hawkish pause"—the chance of a 25 basis point hike in December has surged above 70%. The shadow of liquidity tightening is only delayed, not eliminated. Before the FOMC decision, both bulls and bears are reluctant to expend ammunition early; the real directional choice will come after the announcement.
Cryptocurrency differentiation has already begun: BTC has the most stable base, with institutional cost support in the 79,000-80,000 range, showing the strongest resilience. ETH has broken below the 2,350 trendline, with ETF funds continuously flowing out; 2,300 is the short-term critical support line. SOL is the weakest of the three, with a clear head and shoulders pattern; once the 100 neckline is breached, the downside target is 80, with volatility risk far exceeding the other two.
No rate hike is not a catalyst for a rise; the wording of the statement is the core pricing variable. A dovish tilt would see BTC’s rebound first target 83,000; a hawkish tilt would make holding 80,000 difficult, and risk assets would collectively come under pressure. The current position has very low risk/reward; it is safer to wait for the decision before making moves.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
I personally see Hynix's upcoming earnings report as exceeding expectations.
Mainly because storage chip prices are still rising in Q3, with DRAM expected to increase by 21% quarter-on-quarter and NAND by 17%. Price increases will directly impact revenue and profit, and coupled with AI servers' demand for HBM, Hynix's profitability this quarter still has room to improve.
The current market expectation for operating profit is about 76.96 trillion KRW, but I believe there is a chance to surpass 80 trillion. In short, the market already anticipates performance growth, but I think the profit increment from storage price hikes might be higher than the market estimates.