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Core Risk Warnings 1. A volatility compression to 6% has historically ended in explosive moves: a 9-day consolidation box, with the 30-day price spread shrinking from 13% to 6%. Once the direction is chosen, the magnitude could far exceed the $2,100 implied by the current ATR. Avoid heavy directional bets at the end of the compression. 2. 82,700 is the "invalid line" for the medium-term bearish pattern: until the daily close breaks above this area, the objective signal is bearish and range-bound, not a bull market trend. All short-term moving averages are above the price, which is a technical fact that cannot be ignored. 3. ETF "IBIT unipolar inflow" is fragile support: 566 million this week. If IBIT inflows slow or reverse, net inflows across the market will quickly turn negative. The recent 774 million outflow over the past two days has already demonstrated this fragility. 4. The FOMC (10/27–28) is the biggest variable within 48 hours: a pause in October is priced in, but the real risk lies in any hawkish hints from Waller regarding December. If December rate hike expectations strengthen, the lower boundary of the $79,200 box will face a severe test. 5. The "chaotic combination" of $117 oil prices + falling US Treasury yields: the market is pricing in an AI recession rather than oil-driven inflation. Bitcoin has no clear beneficiary path in this combination—oil price gains do not transmit, while weakness in tech stocks drags it down. 6. Divergence between taker sell volume at 0.67 and 67% net long accounts: positions are bullish but actions are selling. If price is resisted near $82,300, passive long covering may turn into selling pressure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Order placing is exhausting! $247 rolled to $936 in 15 minutes, this bot really knows how to wait 😂 There is a bot specifically trading Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets. Since last December, it has run about 169,700 markets and accumulated roughly $354,200 in purchases. It doesn't guess price direction; it places buy orders at every cent price point, waiting for people to panic sell recklessly. Today there was an even crazier window. Someone smashed about $10,000 on a buy order, and the price instantly dropped from around 65 cents to 5 cents. The bot's buy orders were all filled, costing about $247, and settled in 15 minutes for about $936, nearly 3.78 times the cost. Out of 313 days, 213 were profitable, and in the last 30 days it quietly gained about $6,950. Retail traders rush during those 15 minutes, but the bot waits for your slip-ups. The fastest in this game is often the one with programmed orders. Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC $MSTR MicroStrategy has paused buying coins! Instead, it spent $205 million to repurchase preferred shares. Is the market panicking? Brothers, MicroStrategy's recent moves are worth paying attention to. Logically, MicroStrategy should continue increasing its $BTC holdings, but this time the capital allocation has changed: it spent $205 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent buying BTC. The money spent hasn't decreased, but the focus has shifted! Don't rush to say BTC is too expensive to buy; the key might be the cost of capital. STRC preferred shares have an annual dividend of about 12%, and continuous financing means bearing significant dividend expenses. Repurchasing preferred shares may help control future capital costs and cash flow pressure. This indicates that MicroStrategy's capital arrangement deserves a fresh look, but we can't conclude that Saylor has completely changed the strategy just because of buying less BTC for a week. Looking at market performance, BTC has fallen below around $80,000, the FOMC meeting is approaching, risk-off sentiment is rising, and MSTR's stock price is also under pressure. The real question is: if BTC continues to weaken and MicroStrategy slows its buying pace, can MSTR's valuation premium hold? Next, focus on three signals: whether BTC can stabilize, whether MicroStrategy will continue buying coins, and the financing and repurchase arrangements of STRC. Brothers, do you think this is MicroStrategy proactively adjusting its capital structure, or is market pressure starting to show? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $xMETA Here's a drama from last night. The earnings report came out, revenue blew past expectations, over 40 billion USD, profits steady like an old workhorse. But AI is a bottomless pit that burns money, so they immediately decided to raise 35 billion USD. Investors calculated: more shares issued, dilution, pre-market sell-off, stock dropped over 4%. Almost losing their minds. Then a divine reversal happened. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom—three chip giants—stepped up and said they would put 5 billion USD into buying its stock. Pre-market, the drop of over 4% was pulled up to a 1.12% gain. My takeaway: the money shortage is fake, but the ranking is real. Among this huge financing, the three hardware giants willing to pay 5 billion to buy in is basically telling you—on the AI chain, no one is helping for free. Its stock price is tied to the crypto nerve; when one side moves, the stocks and tokens on the other side also get unsettled. $xMETA #SoftBankQ2AIReturns AI goldmine — OpenAI $2.15T gain Q2, $79.6B FV vs $34.6B cost = $45B unrealized. Nvidia exit 32.1M shares $5.83B Oct, Arm + telecom stable. Vision Fund + OpenAI $500B val (was $300B Mar). Final $10B tranche done Oct 1 → total $64.6B = 13% OpenAI. Valuation: $15.4, $169B mcap, P/E 5.2x, 78% run Sep Q (+best since 2005), now -25% off high. ROE 26%, margin 62%. Debt ¥5T, EUR 405M note redeemed. Call: 90% BEAT needs >¥3T profit on OpenAI markup + no impairment to hit ¥7,000.Bitcoin will either plunge or surge significantly After the past two midterm elections, BTC experienced sharp declines: ▪️In the post-election phase of 2018, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -50% ▪️In the post-election phase of 2022, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -25% The next midterm election is on November 3. History does not simply repeat itself, but both post-election periods shared the commonality of deep corrections. Do you think the market will replay this historical scenario after this election? ❗This is only a summary of public historical data and does not constitute any trading advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Is $BTC Bitcoin saved? Oil prices have started to fall, is a rebound coming? Let's talk about the current trading opportunities. 1. Have you noticed that to trade crypto well, you have to be like a eunuch! Constantly pondering the emperor's will, guessing the next move of King Trump. 2. Over the weekend, US crude oil CL soared to 105, reaching a price Trump couldn't tolerate, so he immediately crashed the market, saying he wouldn't attack Iran today. Oil prices plummeted 5%, and both the crypto market and US stocks finally began to recover. 3. So what will Bitcoin do next? Actually, from Trump's actions above, we already have a conclusion. Trump doesn't ignore the market; if it falls too much, he will back down or soften his stance. So I believe the downside risk is relatively limited, and since there has already been a significant pullback recently, buying on dips can be considered. Those who have bottomed out can wait patiently. 4. I don't know if you've noticed, but recently there have been so many negative factors in the market—US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen—so many bad news, yet Bitcoin hasn't dropped much. It was around 82,000 before, now 80,000, only about a 2% drop, which is actually a relatively strong signal, at least compared to the US stock market. 5. So now the market is such that despite negative news, it doesn't fall much, or it falls and then rebounds. And what if there is good news later? Just think about it, something big will come! Besides the US-Iran conflict, there might also be positive inflation data. We just need to wait patiently now and pay attention to the strong support around 78,200. Buy when it reaches that level, if not, then forget it.Binance launched 4 TradeFi perpetual contracts all priced in USDT today, with liquidation handled on Binance RCH, and the launch times staggered by 5 minutes each. EIDOUSDT at 17:00, EQTUSDT at 17:05, STMUSDT at 17:10, ABBVUSDT at 17:15. EIDO and EQT track US and European stock ETFs, STM is STMicroelectronics, ABBV is AbbVie; all four contracts are well-established traditional assets. This pace is worth noting. Previously, launching a new product required the platform to warm up for several days, but now 4 are queued within 15 minutes, showing the variety pool is expanding faster than user education. For contract traders, there are three practical impacts. First, liquidity is thinnest in the 15 minutes before opening, spreads and spike risks are high, so avoid rushing in immediately. Second, these assets don’t have the 7×24 sentiment of crypto markets; prices follow US and European trading hours, with possible no movement overnight and gaps at daytime open. Third, USDT pricing means no need to swap coins, but funding rates and margin rules must be reviewed carefully—don’t apply crypto parameters directly. The platform bringing traditional finance into contracts is essentially competing for a bigger pool. The more varieties, the more stories to tell, but what really determines your profitability are the old questions: position size, leverage, and when not to enter.The biggest buyer didn't buy this week: Strategy spent $205 million elsewhere The article at dawn said institutional buying couldn't keep up with mining, and by evening there was a ready-made footnote. According to Monday's SEC filing, Strategy neither bought nor sold a single $BTC last week, nor did it touch the ATM issuance; it spent the entire $204.9 million on repurchasing its own preferred stock STRC, buying back 2.07 million shares in one week. This is the first time it paused after buying coins for four consecutive weeks — the amount spent on buying coins had shrunk from $140 million to below $30 million over the previous three weeks. The accounting goes like this: since October, Strategy has spent about $664 million on STRC repurchases, only about $72.3 million on buying $BTC, acquiring 851 coins. Holdings remain at 848,517 coins, with an average price of $75,446, current price about $79,980 (Beijing time 22:13), still positive on paper. Comparison group: in the same week, Strive made its largest coin purchase ever, over $510 million. One paused, one increased — there is significant internal disagreement among institutions about the 80,000 level. There is a reason for the buyback: STRC once fell below $98 last Monday, under the $100 par value, only recovering above $99 on Friday. Whether to stabilize its own preferred stock first or continue to increase $BTC holdings, Saylor chose the former this week.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood will report after the market closes on October 27. Honestly, market expectations for this earnings report are quite high. After all, Q2 numbers were outstanding: revenue surged 32% to 1.31 billion, and net inflows hit a new high of 22 billion USD. But with expectations set so high, Q3 is somewhat "riding a tiger". The analysis shows two main points of contention: first, trading activity. Q3 saw a choppy market in both US stocks and crypto, so has retail investors' "gambling nature" been suppressed? Whether trading volume and commission income can sustain the baseline is a big test. Second, the growth of new business. Relying solely on the old core business is no longer enough; it depends on whether new products like derivatives and retirement accounts can actually monetize. My personal view is that $HOOD is currently going through a "breaking out of the circle" growing pain phase. The inflow volume shows the user base is solid, but future revenue can't just rely on luck (dependence on trading volume). If this earnings report can prove that new business contributes substantially, then the stock price will have a new story to tell. #AAOIQ3800GOutlook Guide $255-290M / $0.11-0.26 EPS. Q2 BEAT: $191.9M vs $190.5M, EPS $0.06 vs $0.01 (+0.22 YoY). 5th record Qtr. Why YES: 800G transceiver ramp, 1.6T orders, TX fab expansion. Datacenter AI optics = Nvidia rack boom. Rev 5Qs up. Gross margin improving. Valuation: $102, $5.7B mcap, 52W $18.5-$233.7, -30% off high, RSI 30 oversold, below 50/200 SMA ($106/$132). P/E -87x, beta 3.85. Call: 70% BEAT — needs >$280M + EPS >$0.20 + 1.6T guide to reclaim $135. Miss <$250M = $85.$HYPE has a real trading ecosystem as support, but the recent decline indicates that sentiment remains cautious. It cannot be assumed to have bottomed out just based on the pullback; continue to observe platform revenue and capital flow to see if the price can stabilize again at 78-80 9%回调被说成"牛市中正常洗盘"，可衍生品那边真这么轻松吗？ 这波到底是在洗浮筹，还是在悄悄堆挤压的引线？ 昨晚盯盘时我第一反应不是价格，而是资金费率和持仓量那两条线：BTC 从高点回撤约 9%，情绪上大家开始等"更低的低点"，但永续端并没出现那种彻底去杠杆的干净感。有个知名交易者说这只是牛市里一次不错的调整，建议未来几周继续定投 BTC，中线逻辑没坏。我认同他"别被短期恐慌带偏"的部分，但衍生品视角下，我更在意这轮回撤里谁在扛单、谁在等更便宜的筹码。 现场信号大概是这样： - 价格回撤约 9%，属于牛市里常见的调整幅度，但市场普遍在等"极端低点"重演 - 上次那种插针式清算，是多条坏消息同时引爆的结果，眼下并没有同等密度的利空 - 四季度买家还在等更低的位置进场，现货买盘偏犹豫 - 永续持仓和资金费率没有出现彻底出清，说明杠杆还在场内 - ETH、ZEC 这类高 beta 标的跟跌，风险偏好短线偏防守 我的理解是：现在市场交易的其实是"回撤够不够深"这件事，而不是趋势有没有坏。中线逻辑还在，定投思路本身没错，但衍生品层面有个容易被忽略的点——如果杠杆没洗干净，价格再往下探一次，触发的【Crypto Circle Script】 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Hynix's earnings report hasn't even come out yet So why is the market already popping champagne? HBM4 hasn't really delivered much profit yet But everyone is already calculating how much can be earned next quarter The money hasn't even been pocketed 🧧 Why does it feel like it's already been earned? If the market believes Hynix can still make more money with HBM4 going forward Then funds will buy in early By the time the profits are actually realized The stock price may have already gone through a rally If everyone knows AI demand is strong And everyone knows HBM is key Then how much of these positives Have not yet been priced into the market? Today's supply shortage Doesn't mean it will always be in shortage So I think When looking at Hynix's earnings report this time We shouldn't just focus on how much it earned But also whether it can continue to earn this much in the future What do you think? After Hynix's earnings report is released this time Will it continue to surge Or will it pull back after the good news is realized? $BTC $ETH #LumentumQ1OpticalGrowth Why YES: AI optical boom — 200G EML lasers 2x QoQ record, pump +90% YoY, OCS backlog $400M+ (was $10M Q1). Undershipping demand 30%, at capacity thru CY27. Q4 guide $960M-$1.01B vs $908M est. CPO + optical scale-up replacing copper H2 26. Valuation: $780, $69B mcap, +335% 1Y, +111% YTD. P/E 346x scary — debt 6.4x. But OM 25%→32%→30-31% guide. Call: 85% BEAT — needs >$1.30B + EPS >$4.50 + OCS >$500M backlog to break $900. $1.20B miss = $650 flush.As soon as the US stock market opened, Bitcoin immediately gave the whole network a harsh lesson. The 80,000 round number was as fragile as paper, instantly smashed down to around 79,600. By now, has someone in the group already started shouting "golden pit" and preparing to charge? Brother, hold your horses! After seeing the data, you might not want to rush in anymore. $BTC current price is 79,980, breaking the psychological barrier. Logically, it should cause panic, right? Not at all! The 4-hour long-short ratio is still high at 2.24. Retail investors think it's a discount sale and are still buying, with open interest not decreasing, indicating all positions are being firmly held. Looking at $ETH now at 2,311, it’s right on the edge of a cliff. This data is even more absurd than Bitcoin’s; the 4-hour long-short ratio has soared to 2.69. This is true love—falling like this and still not giving up, desperately adding positions. The main players love this kind of stubbornness; they won’t lift you up unless they completely wipe out your leveraged positions. Finally, $SOL is currently at 101.3, with the battle to defend the 100 mark underway. The 4-hour long-short ratio has reached 2.94, practically wearing out the short button. Below are dense bullish chips; once the 100 level breaks, a chain reaction stampede will begin. My view: Seeing the US stock market open like this, retail investors are rushing in. As for me, I’ll continue to stay empty-handed, drink tea, and watch the show. Don’t ever think a drop must mean a rebound. In such a crowded bullish market, there’s often a heavy hammer waiting behind. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 With one sentence from Musk tonight, he crushed a string of "new cloud" companies: CoreWeave down 4%, Nebius down 4.7%, IREN also falling. His exact words were that these companies will face major consolidation and closures. What’s intriguing is that the person saying this is himself pouring money wildly into building computing power. This isn’t bearish on AI; it’s about clearing risks along the entire chain—the weakest link has never been the giants holding hundreds of billions in cash, but the middlemen who borrow money to buy GPUs and then sublease them. Wherever leverage is added, that layer cracks first. If this round really hits trouble, it will most likely start with these names, not Nvidia. Keep an eye on them. 5600 dropped to 4000, is the gold bull market dead? Last week it fell 4%, breaking the round number support, and the whole internet was shouting "gold is finished." But after reviewing central bank holdings data, I found a chilling truth — all the sellers are leveraged traders, while those picking up chips remain silent. First, the surface looks terrible: really terrible. From the January high of 5580 down to 4000, 25% is gone. Last week recorded the worst weekly drop since June, daily moving averages are all bearish, with the 20-day MA at 4155 and 50-day MA at 4340, price lying below them. RSI dropped to 27-35, oversold, but no bullish divergence. Everyone says "the gold bull market is over" and "de-dollarization is a scam." Do you believe it? First thing: the reason for the drop is not that gold is weak, but that interest rates are too high. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still near 5%. The opportunity cost of holding gold is ridiculously high — why hold a non-yielding metal when you can put money in government bonds earning 5% risk-free interest? Add to that a hot September CPI at 3.7%, strong PPI, and high oil prices, the market is betting a 75-80% chance of a rate hike in December. The dollar is strong, and gold is being pressed down hard. It's not that gold is worthless, it's that "the cost of holding gold" is too high. When rates ease, gold will be the first to take off. Second thing: while you are cutting losses, central banks are quietly buying. Emerging market central banks — China, India, Turkey — have been steadily increasing holdings this year by over 1000 tons. They bought above 4000, and now below 4000, have they fled? No. ETF holdings have not increased significantly during the pullback, what does this mean? Short-term speculative funds are exiting, long-term allocation funds are waiting. Third thing: technically, gold has reached the "faith test zone," but not yet the bottom-fishing starting gun. Strong support: 3980-4000 (round number + recent low cluster), break that and look at 3960-3940 (July lows), then 3900. Resistance: 4040-4075 (previous support turned resistance), then 4100-4120, 4150-4200 is a dense moving average zone. Pattern: inside a descending channel, after liquidity sweep below, a rebound, but until it stands above key moving averages, this is just a bear market rally, not a reversal. Monday's rebound 0.3-0.6%, oversold repair, don't get excited. Before the FOMC, any rebound could be a trap. Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself Bears say: Interest rates at 5%, holding cost too high 75-80% chance of December hike Oil prices falling, inflation expectations cooling All moving averages bearish, descending channel intact Bulls say: Central banks buying 1000 tons solidly 25% drop from 5600, correction deep enough RSI oversold, technical rebound imminent High debt + geopolitical uncertainty, mid-term logic intact Short term I'm bearish, mid term I'm bullish. But before the FOMC (October 28), anyone heavily positioned is foolish. Trading strategy Before FOMC (1-3 days): Light positions or wait and see. If itching to short: short on rebound 4040-4070, stop loss above 4100, targets 4000→3980→3960. If itching to long: hold 3980-4000, wait for hammer/engulfing pattern then light long, stop loss below 3960, target 4040-4070. Event trading (FOMC + PCE): Dovish statement → rebound 4100-4150 Hawkish or PCE beats expectations → break 3960, look at 3900 or lower Reduce positions or hedge before decision, don't bet your life on direction. Mid to long term: Build physical/ETF positions in batches within 3900-4000 range, don't go all in. Stop loss? Mid-long term focus is on central bank gold buying and de-dollarization, not a single candlestick. But position size should not exceed 20% of total funds. Gold now is like Bitcoin in March 2020 — Pandemic crash, everyone said "safe haven assets failed," but it doubled in six months. This time is the same: You didn't lose to gold, you lost to the illusion that "everyone else is selling." $BTC $ETH $XAU From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, after which it underwent a correction, with the current price down about 36% from the peak. Although there was a rebound in Q3, ETF fund flows were volatile, with significant net outflows during some periods. On-chain data shows that long-term holders remain relatively stable, but short-term costs and leveraged liquidations make the price highly sensitive to macroeconomic data. Declining trading volume and neutral sentiment indicate that the market is waiting for a clear catalyst rather than actively pricing in a new trend. Entering November, the market is likely to continue with high volatility and consolidation rather than a one-sided strong trend. The primary variable is the Federal Reserve's subsequent path. If the statement after this week's meeting is hawkish or the dot plot strengthens the expectation of a rate hike in December, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, further compressing the risk premium of crypto assets. Conversely, if data shows inflation easing or the chair's tone is more flexible, it could trigger a short-term rebound targeting the resistance zone of $82,000 to $85,000. Overall, however, financing costs remain a constraint, and Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in real interest rates.#OkloQ3NuclearOutlook Q2 MISS: -$0.28 vs -$0.16 est, Rev $1.21M vs $0.09M beat but loss wider. No profit till 2028 ($51M est). Valuation pain: $25.5, 52W $26.3-$152, -64% YTD, -81% 1Y. Citi $57.5→$33, Truist $51→$31, Piper cut too. Avg PT $75 = 170% upside but dilution — $1B ATM sold 18M shares. Inst 85%. Net -$105M, P/B $9.45. Call: 20% EPS BEAT — earnings irrelevant. Needs licensing milestone + no new ATM + ARK buying to hold $25. Miss = $23. $14 bear case.Brothers, in the dynamic group everyone is shouting "bottom fishing, bottom fishing $BTC," I want to ask: at this point, do you dare to bottom fish? How many people have truly bottom fished? Let's not look at anything else, just the current market trend: From the K-line trend, BTC has completely broken down from the high level, all short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with one big bearish candle after another pressing down hard. Every small rebound now can't even reach the previous high, it's a classic downward continuation pattern with no sign of stabilization or counterattack. Looking at the order book depth, there are dense large sell orders around 79,640 above, the selling pressure is very heavy. Meanwhile, the buy orders below are sparse and can't absorb the dumped chips. Funds are flowing out, and the main force has no intention to support the price. In such a one-sided downward trend, the bottom hasn't been confirmed at all; bottom fishing now is like catching a flying knife, no one knows if there's a basement under the floor. So, do I dare to bottom fish? My answer is no, and I won't join that hype. Following the big trend to short is much safer than blindly guessing the bottom. I'm holding this short position firmly, and I won't exit without a clear stabilization signal. My short position entry price is 83436.2, now it has directly dropped to 79621.8, firmly holding +13.71% profit! $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Many people wonder: $BTC hasn't dropped sharply, so why does every rebound feel so fragile, collapsing at the slightest touch? The answer isn't in the candlestick charts but in the funding rates and liquidation data. The funding rate has clearly turned positive these past two days, meaning longs are continuously paying shorts, and the market is crowded with longs trying to catch the rebound. Looking at liquidations, the big losers have consistently been longs, not shorts, getting washed out round after round. This isn't macro forces dumping the market; it's overcrowded longs stepping on each other. Every shout of "the bottom is here" only fuels the next dip. If you want to catch this rebound, first ask yourself: what makes you think you won't be among those getting washed out?The cost of going long on SOL is not just the transaction fee; the real cost consists of three parts: transaction fees, funding rates, and opportunity cost. The third is the easiest to overlook but accounts for the largest proportion. Transaction fees are the most direct. The taker fee for perpetual contracts is about 0.05%, charged once when opening a position and once when closing it, totaling about 0.1% for a round trip. With $SOL currently around 101, opening and closing a position of 10 SOL costs about 1 USD in fees. Funding rates are the cost during the holding period, settled every 8 hours. On the morning of October 26 at 8 AM, the rate was 0.00008764%, which annualizes to about 3.2%. Holding a long position means paying this every 8 hours; for a 10 SOL position, one period costs about 0.09 USD. Over 10 days (30 periods), this accumulates to 2.7 USD. Opportunity cost is the most hidden expense. If during these 10 days BTC rises by 5% but SOL only rises or stays flat at 2%, the 3% difference is the opportunity cost. For 10 SOL at 101 USD each, that's 1010 USD total, so 3% equals 30.3 USD. This amount is not deducted from the account but is a real loss. Adding these three together, holding a 10 SOL long position for 10 days costs 1 USD in fees, 2.7 USD in funding rates, and assuming a 3% opportunity cost, 30.3 USD, totaling 34 USD. The fees and funding rates combined are less than 4 USD, with opportunity cost accounting for 90%. Before going long on $SOL, think carefully about whether you can outperform the market; if not, you are paying hidden costs. #AWS computing power demand is booming, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings? "Amazon's computing power orders explode: Who profits behind the earnings report?" The entire internet is focused on Amazon's Q3 earnings this week, with rumors everywhere that AWS computing power orders are booked through next year, and Wall Street has pushed revenue expectations extremely high. But behind the impressive numbers lies a heavy burden of massive cash burn. Tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures are being poured into grid expansion, liquid cooling upgrades, and long-term Nvidia contracts, with cash flow stretched to the limit by depreciation cycles. The real question is whether the payments come from genuine business deployments by enterprises or from a tech giant's arms race to avoid falling behind. This earnings call will deliver the most direct answer. $BTC #ModernaQ3VaccineSales Why YES: mNEXSPIKE COVID + mFLUSIVA flu (1st mRNA flu FDA 50+) approved. Cancer vax Intismeran (MRK) Phase 3 hit. FY +10% rev guide. Cash $8B+ after $950M litigation. Valuation insane: $200 vs $22 low 1580% YTD, +295% 6M, high $254. P/S 41x, P/B 9x, EPS -$7.25, Net -141% margin. Street PT $118 (42% down). 3 Buy/14 Hold/3 Sell. Oct 22 -25% on cancer data leak. Call: 80% EPS BEAT (season + cost cuts) but stock - Sell the beat 1 needs >$950M + loss <-$0.90 + 2026 raise$PEPE This wave of the market killed too many people. On October 23rd, it was pulled up to a monthly high of 0.000005076, RSI soared to 94 overbought, attracting a large number of leveraged long positions rushing in. What happened? Huge whales started moving coins to exchanges, with a net inflow of 2.11 trillion coins, and the bulls were directly slaughtered. On October 15th, nearly 1 billion was liquidated across the network, and low-Utility high-Beta coins fell even worse than the overall market. How was this trap dug out: PEPE has no unlocking selling pressure (100% circulating), but whales control 41%. Pumping up to dump is normal. It smashed down from 0.000004448 to 0.000004347, the oscillating downward line on the chart is the evidence. This short position of mine was picked up at the bottom of the pit. 50x leverage, opened at 0.000004448, now at 0.000004347, floating profit +113.08%. But I’m not greedy. Has it stabilized? No. PEPE: 0.00000440-0.00000445 is the recent support zone (also the long-short contest zone), if broken, look to 0.0000040 (channel lower edge). Above, 0.000004448 is the opening price/stop loss line, if it can’t hold back above, the pit continues. Some platform funding rates have already turned negative, shorts are overcrowded, a short squeeze could happen anytime. This is not the bottom, this is a "longs liquidated then shorts liquidated" turnover pit. The short position’s error tolerance at 50x leverage is only 2%, before FOMC, don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for the signal. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Tonight in the Brazilian stock market, has the circuit breaker already triggered? Woke up this morning and checked the market first thing; Ibovespa futures plunged 20% straight away, triggering a circuit breaker. EWZ night session once dropped over 17%, PBR pre-market hit $19.98, down more than 20%. This is not a correction, it's a stampede. What happened? Lula reversed Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.76%, securing a fourth term. The market had fully bet on the right wing winning, so the "Bolsonaro trade" instantly failed. Concerns about the fiscal deficit have returned—the public debt is 82.9% of GDP, benchmark interest rate at 13.75%, these numbers make everyone frown. Is this an overreaction or valuation correction? Honestly, more the latter. In the three weeks after the first round, Bovespa rose nearly 7%, the real gained 5%, all on expectations. Now that expectation is gone, it's just a pullback. But fiscal pressure is real, so it's more like a "killing of expectations + fiscal concerns" double pricing, not a pure overreaction. PBR deserves a separate mention. It carries an extra layer of risk beyond the index—fuel pricing might be intervened. Lula did this last time, suppressing inflation but hurting companies. Now it’s near $20, resistance at 22, support at 20; breaking below 20 could trigger another wave of selling. Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity? Opinions vary widely. Gavekal says high interest rates plus commodity exposure is an opportunity, recommending buying; another camp calculates forward PE from 9.7x down to 8.3x or even 7x, advocating downgrades. $EWZ To be honest, the most uncertain thing about ETH this week isn't whether it will rise or fall, but that both sides are talking past each other. The portion that exchanges can sell is flowing out — roughly a net outflow of one billion USD from the US spot ETF in October. On the other hand, about 36% of the entire network is already locked in staking, with over a million more queued to enter. The price is soft; it even dipped below 2300 in the early morning. The market seems to be sighing, but on-chain it looks like someone is packing up, preparing to stay longer. I lean toward the latter: interest rates are scary, so ETF redemptions happen; the network is still active, so staking continues. The sideways price action might just be these two forces clashing. If I'm wrong, it might look like this — 2300 can't hold, redemptions keep expanding, and the staking queue suddenly shortens. That would mean people aren't that confident either. In the days after the Fed meeting, I'll watch the redemption numbers against 2300; whoever gives in first loses. $ETH $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Calculating, S&P Global first announced the acquisition on September 17 and declared its completion on October 26, a span of 39 days. The acquisition target is OpenZeppelin, a provider of on-chain financial security standards; financial terms were not disclosed, and S&P Global expects the transaction will not have a significant impact on its own financial performance. I tend to view this as a positive development for the security standardization track, but not a major event that will immediately translate into performance. ① OpenZeppelin was founded in 2015 and was acquired in 2026, spanning 11 years. From another perspective, S&P Global is integrating a security company with a relatively long development history, rather than a newly emerging team; this makes the explanation of "enhancing security capabilities" more convincing. ② From the announcement on September 17 to completion on October 26, the transaction process took 39 days. The completion of the acquisition indicates the deal was finalized, but these 39 days should not be directly counted as progress in product integration or customer adoption; I prefer to view these matters separately. ③ The October 26 announcement still did not disclose the transaction amount, and S&P Global expects the financial impact to be minor. Without the price as a benchmark, it is difficult to value the entire on-chain security track based on the acquisition itself; if there is actual business adoption later, discussing the scope of impact will be more solid. My judgment is that a traditional financial information company’s willingness to incorporate on-chain security capabilities into its system is significant; as for whether this significance will reach ordinary users, I will focus next on how the actual services are implemented and will not rush to calculate returns based on the announcement.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic *Why YES:* Gaming G&NS ¥771B +28% YoY, MAU 219M +3%, playtime +1%, PS Plus shift to higher tier. Music ¥600B+ est — KPop Demon Hunters streaming + 25% streaming growth. Imaging sensor pricing. Tariff loss cut ¥70B→¥50B. ¥100B buyback + FY Op +¥100B raise. 7 of 8 EPS beats. *Valuation:* ¥4,500, mcap ¥24T, -23% off ¥4,776 high. PT cut ¥5,100→¥4,700 but Buy stays. Beat rate 50% last 4Qs. *Call: 65% BEAT — needs Gaming >¥1.1T + Music >¥600B + GM >36%. $24 → $26 if beat.*$ETH ETH is currently at 2,302: J value 13.84 extremely oversold, but the whale's "cleaver" still hangs overhead ETH fell 1.74% intraday. The 1-hour J value is only 13.84, RSI6 dropped to 30.19, signaling extreme oversold conditions, MACD golden cross just appeared below the zero line, green bars shrinking, a short-term rebound could trigger at any time. But oversold has never been a reason for a rise; the liquidation map is the real factor. The ETH long-short ratio remains as high as 2.46, with bullish exposure far from fully cleared. Around 2,272 below, there is about $270 million in long liquidation pressure; if broken, a chain of liquidations could instantly smash the price through 2,200. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of over $1.18 billion in October, marking the largest monthly outflow this year; Arthur Hayes publicly declared "I sold all," liquidating 6,400 ETH near 2,375. On-chain old whales are also moving, transferring 5,000 ETH, of which 1,500 have flowed into CEX. Blast has closed its withdrawal interface, some funds are returning to the mainnet, but this is far from enough to offset institutional selling pressure. Key levels: Above, 2,320–2,336 is the moving average resistance zone; if a rebound cannot hold with volume here, it is a window for bears to add positions; below, 2,272 is the last defense line for bulls, and if lost, it opens the space to accelerate down to the whale liquidation price at 2,181. The temptation of an oversold rebound is great, but until the bullish crowding eases, every rebound may be building momentum for the next round of liquidations.$DOOD 592.52%. This is the floating profit ratio. But the real numbers managing this position are three others. First: 29.59%. This is the actual increase. The 20x leverage magnifies it 20 times, but the risk is also magnified 20 times. If it retraces 29.59%, this position goes to zero. Compared to the previous round, the actual increase dropped from 33.76% to 29.59%, buffering reduced by nearly 4 percentage points—the cost of sideways movement. Second: 0.000503. This is the point difference between the current price and the entry price. 0.002203 minus 0.0017. In the volatility of small coins, this distance can't withstand a decent spike. Third: 0.000297. This is the point difference between the current price and the 0.0025 resistance. It was 0.000226 just now, now it's 0.000297—the distance is widening, bullish strength is weakening. The operation is clear: push up to breakeven, secure the main position. Break through 0.0025 to target 0.003, fall back to cost and exit. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The hottest phrase in the group these past two days is, "Those who farm Predict have finally made it." The reason is straightforward: Binance listed its pre-market contract, with the pre-market price around $1.5. At this price, the FDV is roughly $1.5 billion. A prediction market project that hasn't even issued tokens yet is starting off with a valuation comparable to a second-tier public chain. Regarding the airdrop, the market rumor is that the share is no less than 5%. Calculated at $1.5 billion, that's a $75 million pot. Some people estimate the value of a single PP point at $0.15, and accounts with thousands of points could realize amounts in the hundreds to a thousand dollars range, which is not just empty excitement. The project didn't just appear out of nowhere. In March this year, CZ retweeted its airdrop points tweet, and shortly after interacted again. The hype started from then. In the meantime, it acquired Probable, merging the two point systems, so early participants who farmed both sides effectively got double the rewards. But I'm not so optimistic about the pre-market price. A $1.5 pre-market price essentially means the TGE's high opening is cashed in early, and those who enter at the actual opening will have to start at a $1.5 billion valuation. My approach is simple: I don't chase the pre-market price. I wait for the TGE opening; if it opens low, I'll consider entering, if it opens high, I'll just watch from the sidelines. Farming profits come from patience, trading profits come from positioning—don't mix the two.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？ SpaceX's recent $40 billion AI funding round has had some back-and-forth news. Musk publicly said it has been finalized, but there are still reports that the pricing hasn't been fully agreed upon. The credit market is very picky now; AI infrastructure companies without stable core businesses find it hard to get funding. Even though SpaceX's performance is impressive, the interest cost on this large amount of capital is not low, so there will be considerable pressure going forward.Greatness needs no words! Pump officially integrates with X Layer! With Pump launching on X Layer, it may seem like just another chain added to the asset list. Users don’t need to cross chains or switch wallets; the same USDC balance can be directly traded on X Layer tokens. This is possible because the underlying settlement ecosystem is already established. In August 2026, Circle brought native USDC and CCTP to X Layer. USDC no longer relies on traditional liquidity bridges but is natively minted by Circle and flows in and out via CCTP. By early October, X Layer’s stablecoin TVS was about $133 million, with approximately $17.78 million of USDC bridged externally via CCTP. Pump is integrating with a stablecoin layer that is already aligned with Western trading habits, not a new network that requires users to learn cross-chain operations first.#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Capital Flow and Leverage Liquidation · ETF Capital Momentum Reversal: Although the entire week still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, after cumulative inflows of approximately $1.075 billion in the first three trading days, there was a single-day net outflow of $636 million on Thursday (the largest recent single-day withdrawal), followed by another outflow of $138 million on Friday. The two-day total outflow of about $770 million directly weakened the buying support in the market. · Long Liquidations Leading the Decline: In the past 24 hours, about 196,000 people were liquidated across the network, totaling $728 million, with longs accounting for as much as 84%. Bitcoin long liquidations were about $234 million. This decline was more a chain reaction of forced liquidations of leveraged longs rather than active selling on the spot side. · Coinbase Premium Continues to Turn Negative, Indicating Weak Buying Power from U.S. Institutions. Macro and Event Drivers · Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (October 28): The market expects rates to remain unchanged this time (over 93% probability of no rate hike), but bets on a rate hike in December remain high at 73%–77%, with hawkish expectations suppressing risk appetite. · Inflation and Oil Price Pressure: September CPI rose to 3.7%, Brent crude oil broke through $115, and renewed inflation concerns combined with U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5.3% have pushed the 7-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to as high as 83.4%, weakening Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute and amplifying its risk asset characteristics. #AMDQ3HeliosRevenue Q2 BEAT: $11.54B vs $11.3B, DC $6.72B +107% (58% of sales), EPS $1.66 vs $1.62 — but sold -8% on GM miss. Helios rack (EPYC + MI355X/450) shipments Q3, ramp Q4. Demand ahead of forecast. Server CPU >80% YoY H2 26, DC 2x again in 2027. OpenAI 6GW, Meta, Anthropic 2GW, Oracle. Wedbush $600 — CPU tight = upside. Valuation: $521, 131x P/E, 38.5x 2027 $14.11. YTD +143%. Needs DC >$7.5B + Q4 $15.7B guide. Call: 75% BEAT — numbers good, price is GM. >56.5% GM + Helios vol = $608Dogecoin has new developments, but the price hasn't taken off! BTC is still hovering around 80,000, and ETH continues to weaken. Rather than guessing who's laying low, there's a detail in this announcement that's more worth watching. On October 21, Dogecoin Labs announced the integration of MyDoge, DogeOS, and Such App. However, the regulatory filing from House of Doge on October 23 notes that the asset transfer for Such App has not yet been completed. Announcing integration does not mean everything is fully implemented. First, looking at $BTC, it’s at 80,198, down 0.32% in 24 hours. It's only 198 dollars away from 80,000. Being close to a round number doesn't mean there is definite support here. Next, $ETH is at 2,318, down 0.74%. It’s weaker than BTC in the same window, only 18 dollars above 2,300. Just because it has already dropped doesn’t mean the risk ahead is smaller. Finally, $DOGE is at 0.07720. The integration of wallets, apps, and payments is worth noting, but the announcement doesn’t mean new users have already appeared, nor that buying pressure has entered the market. I’m more focused on the actual number of users, payment transactions, and retention going forward, rather than how many project names appear in the announcement. The ecosystem is progressing, but the price increase has no delivery date. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Privacy coin internal split, AI chain quietly rising, and there's a weird one with a market cap of 6.1 billion and a volume of 15 million. Won the narrative but lost today’s $XMR at $594.38, down 3.38%, but weekly up 3.82%, 14-day up 13.6%, driven by FinCEN withdrawing the mixing regulation proposal on October 5. ZEC is strong while XMR is weak, indicating funds are making choices, not a sector-wide rally. 580 is support; breaking it means the good news is fully priced in. There's still 24% room to the January peak of 797.73, but it must first reclaim 620. Quietly rising minority $NEAR at $4.58, up 1.52%, volume 456.87M, turnover clearly better than the market. 4.50 is the bull-bear line; falling below 4.3 is just an oversold rebound, only breaking 4.80 with volume counts as a trend. The weird one with a market cap of 6.1 billion and volume of 15 million, $RAIN at $0.0086, up 4.63%, market cap 6.14B, volume only 15.83M. No target price set; if volume doesn’t reach 100M, any gains are just paper wealth. There are two types of altcoin special situations: those with volume, and those with only price. The latter is called a trap.#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Nov 4 — Est: $0.37 EPS | $740M Rev* Last BEAT Q3 already printed? $0.64 vs $0.22 est, Net Inc $214M +202%, Rev $740M +66%. USDC $73.7B +108% YoY. But stock -11% after. *Valuation squeeze:* Mizuho PT $43 (-48%), Wolfe $60 — 96% rev = interest. Fed cut fear = -10-20% reserve income. P/E 49x, Fwd 80x+ still rich. Q2 miss $0.18 vs $0.16. *Call: 70% BEAT but 30% stock BEAT — needs USDC >$75B + stable reserve yield. >$800M Rev + Other $100M = $95 test. Rate cut guide = fade.*$BTC BTC is currently quoted at 79,666.7 USDT, down 1.15% intraday, with a 24-hour low of 79,322.9. The price is pressured below MA20 (80,161.5) and MA30 (80,273.0), with SUPERTREND resistance at 80,722.1. The 1-hour MACD shows a golden cross below the zero line with expanding red bars, RSI6 has rebounded to 29.9, moving out of the extreme oversold zone, indicating a short-term oversold recovery pattern. On the macro front, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market risk aversion has intensified, compounded by ongoing concerns about AI trading, putting overall pressure on the crypto market. Traders are generally reducing risk exposure, focusing on whether a December rate hike signal will be released after the meeting; the interest rate path remains the key short-term variable. The funding situation is in a tug-of-war. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $770 million combined on Thursday and Friday last week, contrasting with over $1 billion net inflow earlier in the week, yet the full week still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million. On-chain whales have cumulatively increased holdings by about 85,000 to 89,000 BTC since mid to late September, the fastest accumulation pace since February this year, diverging from ETF outflows. The liquidation heatmap shows strong short liquidations of $787 million at the upper level of $84,240, and long liquidations of about $770 million at the lower level of $76,764. After breaking below the net long cost zone of $81,993, BTC long liquidations in 24 hours reached about $85.9 million, with 64% of net long positions currently at a floating loss, indicating that leverage pressure has not yet been fully released. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Currently, oil price risks are piling up as the FOMC approaches. The market will first trade inflation and may preemptively digest the shock. At present, the market is trading inflation expectations. The oil price has fallen from a nearly six-month high, which does not mean the supply risk has disappeared. The market mainly focuses on the impact of oil prices on inflation and how long interest rates will remain high. If oil prices continue to decline and the Federal Reserve's statements are not more hawkish, the market may switch back to growth and liquidity. $BTC may not necessarily continue to follow inflation concerns. Between oil prices and Bitcoin, there is still the transmission through the dollar and real interest rates. $ETH $ZEC After institutions enter the market, the advantage I can think of for retail investors is surprisingly that we don't have to report quarterly results. We can't compete with their capital or information, but I just buy some Bitcoin and hold it slowly, without needing to explain to anyone why I haven't outperformed recently. Even if companies are willing to buy long-term, they can't cover the odds of my purchase; the money for dollar-cost averaging still needs to be kept intact. That said, my phone keeps pushing notifications about others catching some market moves, and I've turned them off several times already, but they still keep coming.#PalantirQ3Valuation Why YES: US Comm $764M +149%, Gov $809M +90% Q2 — AIP rocket. FY guide $8.15B→ Street looks for $8.2B+ raise. Citi $250 PT, Knox FedRAMP deal just. Valuation problem: $197, P/S 82x, P/E 168x, Fwd P/E 102x, P/S 85x. Even +$8.2B beat = priced. Fair DCF base $163 vs $197 = -14% safety. Software ETF IGV -4.6% Oct 16 dragged PLTR -7% same day. $2.16B = in-line = sell. Call: 60% EPS BEAT but 40% stock BEAT — needs $2.25B+ & US Comm >140% + FY $8.3B to hold $200. Else $184.War again. So someone jumps out again, skillfully shouting those two words: safe haven. Quickly buy gold, quickly buy Bitcoin. And then? Today gold hit a three-week low, Bitcoin fell below eighty thousand. Because war is never a safe haven event, it is an inflation event. When oil prices rise, interest rates can't come down; when interest rates can't come down, your leveraged positions have to pay the installment bill for this war. Even Trump said that high oil prices are a "small price." Yes, a small price. But this small price is not charged to him, it's charged to you. I'm not bearish on war. I'm bearish on the phrase "war is good for crypto": every round, someone uses "safe haven" to trick you into getting on board, and every round, the bill is charged to the same group of people. 我先说个反直觉的：今年从山顶摔得更疼的，反而是黄金。 先看年初到现在。BTC去年最后一个收盘是87,639，现在79,685，年内-9.1%。黄金期货从4,341到4,015，-7.5%。俩人一起泡在水里，差不多深。 但从高点量就不一样了。黄金1月29号收到5,318，那会儿年内已经涨了两成多，现在回撤24.5%。BTC年内最高是1月14号的96,946，回撤17.8%。 所以"币圈波动大、黄金稳"这句老话，今年起码得打个折。 我自己的理解是，今年这俩更像同一类东西，都是在交易流动性和降息预期，钱紧的时候一起被卖。BTC六月底最低到过58,628，后面能弹回来，黄金则是一路慢慢放气。 当然我也可能想多了。周四凌晨两点FOMC一出，要是给的信号偏松，两个可能一起抬头，那"避险"这个标签又会被翻出来。恐惧贪婪现在50，市场情绪也是一副两边都不想站的样子。 说到底，今年躲进黄金的人也没躲过去。我这周就看两件事：FOMC怎么说，BTC 8万能不能当个参考位稳住。$BTC #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is highlighting a critical challenge: AI demand is exploding, but financing the infrastructure behind it is becoming increasingly difficult. Here’s why I’m paying attention. 👀 Oil prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions, inflation is creating pressure on the Federal Reserve, and borrowing costs are making massive AI investments more expensive. Meanwhile, Big Tech is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure. The opportunity is enormous, buTransportation has somewhat recovered, but that doesn't mean the risk premium has disappeared—oil prices remain stuck in a "wartime structure." Hard data: Brent was around $114.5–115 per barrel on Monday, down 1%–2% from Friday's nearly six-month high of about $117, while WTI remains around $101. Trump stated that oil output from the Strait of Hormuz has already exceeded pre-war levels, and shipping data also shows Gulf exports are close to pre-war levels, though about 40% are rerouted through pipelines; Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy-related targets continued over the weekend. Supply figures are being restored, but the risk premium hasn't been fully removed, so oil prices "can fall a bit" but "are unlikely to return to 80." High oil prices continue to suppress risk appetite, posing a macro headwind for $BTC. Do you believe more in "diplomatic easing pushing oil prices below 100" or "the premium sticking above 110"? #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $CL $BZ Last night I said I would verify two things tonight, and after checking, one is correct and the other is the opposite. $SPCX is correct. The hype is indeed fading: opened at 157.95, marked at 146.9208108, +417.73 (+61.48%). An eightfold short position, reasoning being "the excitement will fade," and it’s fading slowly, but the direction has never been misleading. This position remains untouched. $TSLA is the opposite. The half position that turned positive after the earnings report is now −84.70 (−17.18%) tonight. Opened at 377.29678, marked at 390.72000, forced liquidation at 415.80208. My reasoning still feels right: after the earnings report, there are no new numbers to support it. But the price moved in the opposite direction. Reasoning and price have never been the same thing. There’s nothing to verify tonight on the rating front, so I’ll leave it blank for now; no forcing it. $BTC on the other hand returned to +272.71 (+59.47%), marked at 79,809.16, with the gap widening to 6,071. Crypto hasn’t followed the US stock market here. A few words: with the same judgment, one earns over four hundred, the other loses over eighty; the difference lies in which step the market chooses to take first. For this $TSLA position, where would you draw your line? Let’s discuss in the comments👇 #SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 #AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook Q3 BEAT: $109.4B vs $109.0B, EPS $2.02 vs $1.89 — 8/8 beats. Stock ATH $351, $5T mcap. Why YES: iPhone 17 +10-14% YoY, 235M units est. Foldable iPhone Duo 20M units (Munster $8B extra FY27). India +20%, Services $31B+. Guide 9-11% Rev ($111.7-113.8B) — Street at top. Risk: GM 47-48% vs 50.1% Q3 (memory costs + 2.5% FX). iPhone 18 Pro order cuts Oct noted. P/E 39x leaves no room. Call: 55% BEAT — needs iPhone >$62B + Services >$31B to hold $340. Miss GM <47% = $322.
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