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$BTC struggled to hold near support over the weekend. This week features dense inflation data and tech earnings reports, making short-term market moves difficult.
I'm watching $80,133: this level has been tested 6 times, held 4 times, broken 2 times, and around $6.18 million in liquidations occurred near here in the past 46 hours.
The price is falling, but 24-hour open interest has increased by 3.9%, indicating shorts are adding positions. If it breaks below here, I'm bearish and won't try to catch the bottom.
Do you think this level can hold through the week? #OKXTraderVoices SK海力士$SKHYNIX will release its Q3 earnings report on October 28, with the financial figures looking like a "money printing machine": revenue approaching 98 trillion KRW, operating profit expected at 77 trillion KRW, soaring several times year-on-year, likely hitting a new historical high again. But the paradox is, despite such explosive performance, its stock price has dropped 52% from the June peak.
The reason is simple: the good news has already been fully priced in by the market. Now Wall Street doesn't care about "how much was earned," only two things matter. First, where exactly is the peak of this storage cycle. Institutions generally believe 2026 will be the peak of this price increase cycle, followed by a high-level plateau period, where pure high profits can no longer drive the stock price. Second, and most critically—the battle over HBM4 is not going well. Because NVIDIA's $NVDA next-generation Rubin chip schedule has been delayed, plus the time needed for mass production tuning, SK海力士's Q3 HBM4 shipments did not meet initial targets, and some capacity was forced to be shifted to regular memory production. On the other hand, Samsung's HBM4 yield has already reached about 80%, and the market share gap between the two has narrowed from 37 percentage points at the start of the year to 17 points, with some institutions even predicting Samsung's shipments will surpass next year. The once absolute leader's throne is starting to shake.
$BTC is much worse off. Dragged down by AI trading concerns and risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, $BTC today directly fell below $80,000, hovering at the lower edge of a nearly one-month consolidation range. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ This week can be called a super macro week. Here's a brief list of major events for quick reference:
1. Tuesday is the Israeli election. The importance of Israel and the US as conjugate partners needs no further explanation. After this week's election and next week's US midterms, many things can proceed once the political situation stabilizes. The short-term importance of this event is top-tier, and the long-term importance is solid.
2. Before 8 AM Wednesday, SK Hynix earnings report. Importance is top-tier.
3. At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve decision, followed by Powell's speech at 2:30 AM. It's almost certain there will be no rate hike in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains a key point of contention. If Powell's speech is dovish and lowers expectations for a December hike, the market will likely rebound accordingly. The importance of this event is solid.
4. At 4 AM Thursday, Microsoft and Google earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. At 9 AM, Samsung earnings report, importance is high. At 8:30 PM, Q3 GDP preliminary and September PCE data, importance is also solid.
5. At 4 AM Friday, Amazon and SanDisk earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. Intel, Strategy, and Coinbase earnings reports and conference calls, importance is high.
6. The Bank of Japan is also very likely not to raise rates on Friday. Importance is high.
Other NPC and less significant news will not be mentioned here.
From the major events listed above, it's easy to see that Thursday is the most likely turning point.
According to the most optimistic expectations, as long as Powell gives a tone like "we'll look at the data again," the narrative for a November rebound could start early.$BTC is moving sideways around 80,313, changing only -0.10% in 24 hours with a 2.0% amplitude. The market basically did not react to this interest rate hike news. Pakistan's rate decision affects the local currency and domestic prices, not touching dollar liquidity nor impacting crypto capital flows. The data aligns: the three-phase funding rate ranges between 0.0017% and 0.0080%, with leveraged longs not adding positions; DVOL is 38.1, and the options market is not paying for large volatility; 24-hour long liquidations are $9.43 million, shorts $9.24 million, nearly balanced. Options open interest put/call ratio is 0.83, and trading put/call ratio is 0.60, indicating more bullish positions. I judge $BTC will continue to consolidate between 79,321.8 and 80,920, and this news won't push a breakout. Bearish reversal condition: break below 79,321.8 with a clear rise in DVOL, indicating other forces entering, requiring a reassessment. Bullish reversal condition: volume surge above 80,920 while funding rates remain positive. $ONDO
Repeated fluctuations around 0.4, how does the underlying product yield transfer to the token?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ONDO's 24-hour price change was -1.80%, ranging from 0.3972 to 0.4127 USDT.
The snapshot is slightly above 0.4, but the integer part is not a guarantee of value. Assets under management, product income, and token holder equity are different links; without connection, the price will still be driven by risk appetite.
If business growth creates a clear holding demand, it can improve revaluation judgment; if only the scale increases but equity remains unchanged, the drawdown should not be directly interpreted as mispricing.#Franklin Templeton Applies for Dividend-to-Bitcoin ETF
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Franklin Templeton launches a new move: buy US stocks, and dividends automatically convert to Bitcoin! Is traditional finance putting BTC into more people's investment portfolios?
Previously, to allocate Bitcoin, you either bought BTC directly or bought spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now, Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton tries a new approach: dividends earned from holding US stocks are no longer taken as cash but automatically converted into Bitcoin-related investments.
1. What’s the difference between these two ETFs?
FBEQ: Mainly allocates to large-cap US stocks, with a strategy similar to a large-cap stock portfolio combined with Bitcoin allocation.
FIBT: Focuses on innovative companies, with a heavier emphasis on tech stocks.
Regarding fees, the latest documents list annual operating expenses of 0.09% and 0.19%, respectively. However, the exact trading start dates for both funds have not been officially confirmed; registration and listing do not mean trading has begun.
2. What does this mean for BTC?
The key is not how large the initial 5% allocation is, but that it attempts to establish a mechanism for continuously gaining BTC exposure. Traditional investors don’t have to actively buy coins with cash each time; they can indirectly access Bitcoin-related assets by holding the fund. If similar products gradually become popular, BTC has the chance to enter more traditional securities portfolios. $BTC $ETH $SOL Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$EWZ large sell cost decreased, buy cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale changed from 1.71%/2.08% to 1.93%/1.79%. Asymmetric change, only discussing execution, not direction.
$ORDER large sell cost increased, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated sell slippage for 100k scale rose from 0.70% to 0.88%. 10k sell still about 0.18%. Depth is deteriorating, same order size is more expensive.
$DOOD after enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage 0.13%/0.15%, 100k is 0.71%/0.90%. Depth is discontinuous at scale, the 100k level is the real execution constraint. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ In short: Relying solely on the old stock and options market's pulse-like growth is hard to sustain; what can truly support its subsequent growth are new curves like event contracts (prediction markets) + Gold subscriptions + overseas expansion, while traditional crypto trading is currently a drag.
1. What is supporting growth now
In previous quarters, the rise in trading revenue mainly came from two parts:
1. The old base: US retail options and individual stock trading. When the market is lively, retail investors rush in to trade options, and volume explodes; once the US stock market fluctuates sideways and the profit effect disappears, retail activity drops sharply. This part is a typical "market-dependent" segment with no autonomous growth ability.
2. The new dark horse: event contracts (prediction markets), which exploded from last year to this year. Q2 single-quarter revenue increased tenfold year-over-year, already filling the gap left by the decline in crypto business, becoming the most elastic part of the trading segment and the new story the market values most.
3. Crypto business: Compared to the previous year's heat cooling down, crypto trading revenue has been continuously declining in recent quarters. Bitcoin market volatility no longer drives this segment as before, and US regulation remains uncertain and looming.Binance listed Predict in the pre-market contracts this afternoon, which is worth analyzing.
Based on the pre-market price and a total supply of 1 billion tokens, the FDV has reached around 1.5 billion USD, with each token roughly priced at 1.5U. This valuation isn't cheap, but it's not outrageous either.
What really catches attention is the points system. The project team allocated a total points pool of about 440 million points. Breaking it down by three common airdrop ratios:
Releasing 5% means each point is worth about 0.17U.
Releasing 10% means each point is worth about 0.34U.
Releasing 15% means each point is worth about 0.51U.
In other words, if you have accumulated 2,000 points, that corresponds to 340U to 1,020U, a threefold difference depending entirely on the final official release ratio.
Some compare it to Aster, whose post-listing performance indeed left room for market imagination. But the two projects have different token distributions and unlocking schedules, and their current liquidity levels are not comparable, so directly applying multiples can be risky.
My judgment is that the pre-market price has already anchored the valuation. Whether it can hold depends on two things: whether it gets listed on spot markets and how much selling pressure there is on the TGE day. The pre-market price has already dropped somewhat, indicating many rushed to get in early.
I personally bought a small position and am waiting for the official airdrop query to open. Despite strong Google Cloud growth in Q2, external bearish concerns remain around heavy AI CapEx, pressure on margins, and uncertainty over Gemini's ability to generate meaningful revenue. Meanwhile, any slowdown in Search could challenge Google's core business.
The key question: Can AI investments deliver enough returns, or will rising costs weigh on profitability? Could $GOOGL disappoint investors even if revenue beats expectations?#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Consensus operating profit is about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, very likely setting a new record again. The core support comes from AI server demand + general storage price increases, with HBM (including HBM4) contributions rising.
But don't treat HBM4 as a "certain super engine." There is industry feedback that Q3 shipments are below some expectations (Rubin progress, tuning), and Samsung is also chasing market share. The real focus is not just "whether it exceeds expectations," but the statements in the conference call about HBM4 ramp-up pace, Q4/2027 guidance, and capacity allocation.
The performance numbers are very likely to look good, but valuation and subsequent expectations will determine the stock price reaction. Personally, I pay more attention to the quality of the guidance rather than the single quarter numbers themselves. 🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Robinhood Chain on-chain application weekly revenue falls below $3 million for the first time, hitting a new low
Since peaking at over $37.7 million in weekly revenue from late August to early September, Robinhood Chain app income has declined for 7 consecutive weeks
The latest weekly revenue is $2.81 million, down more than 90% from the peak, with the biggest declines mainly in Meme Launchpad and Meme terminal
Currently, Robinhood Chain apps still maintaining weekly revenue of $100,000 include Lighter, Pons, Arcus, Uniswap, GMGN, and fomo 🎪 Monday night, the status of three small coins before the interest rate decision
$WLD 0.467, the identity network token hasn't moved today 🌐
Worldcoin uses iris scanning to verify that you are a real person, not an AI bot. WLD is the ecosystem governance and incentive token. At the 0.467 level, the market is waiting for two things: first, whether World App users can continue to grow; second, how much "proving you are human" is worth in the AI era. There have always been controversies over biometric privacy, and regulatory attitudes remain unclear. Before the interest rate decision the day after tomorrow, these small coins without an interest rate story just drift with the overall market, with volatility greater than mainstream coins.
$TRUMP 1.665, the political meme is waiting for external events 🎭 No company, no product, fixed issuance in advance, price depends entirely on external celebrity news and hype. It rose about 0.6% today, with trading volume active for a meme coin. But the pattern for this kind of coin is obvious: when an event happens, the buy and sell orders suddenly thicken; once the news passes, volume immediately shrinks. When you see it rising, it's often already the latter stage, so don't chase.
$BOME 0.000621, meme points small bounce 📉 It turns meme citation relationships into on-chain points, adding one more layer of retention compared to pure air coins. It rose about 1.5% today, but trading volume is only a bit over three million USD, a very light market cap; a few tens of thousands of dollars can move it. At this level, a bounce will trigger some to borrow and reduce positions; without new stories, don't chase the highs.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC's correlation with the US tech stock sector remains evident. When US stocks pull back, Bitcoin often weakens in sync; when US stocks stabilize, it experiences a slight recovery. This correlation amplifies its volatility. Without new fundamental positive catalysts, its price action largely depends on external market sentiment, lacking independent upward momentum. $ETH $ZEC Hynix earnings countdown: two days left, will the US stock market rally tonight?
Today is 10.26, only two days remain until SK Hynix announces its Q3 earnings. Last week, AI tech stocks pulled back one after another, and the market started to worry about when the huge AI investments will finally pay off.
Tonight, US stock futures have already turned positive, and oil prices have also retreated after several days of decline. Funds might take this opportunity to push the market up.
Pre-market:
Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.25%
$MU 889.66, +1.38%
$SNDK 1,254.29, +1.32%
$SKHY 140.94, +2.86%
Hynix will release its earnings on October 28, with the market estimating operating profit around 76.96 trillion KRW. Shipments of HBM4 and storage price increases are key points, but market expectations are already high. Whether the results beat expectations depends on actual performance (after all, everyone knows AI lacks storage, so it depends on who can truly turn demand into profit).
Although I bet Hynix's earnings won't exceed expectations, objectively, the chance of beating expectations is high.
If MU and SNDK continue to strengthen, they could help restore sentiment in tech stocks.
But pre-market gains don't guarantee a continuous rise after the open; the market isn't that predictable.
Tonight is Monday and an important night to observe fund sentiment.
After several days of decline, those who need to deleverage have done so, and those looking to bottom-fish are waiting for opportunities. It's too early to conclude whether all the bad news is priced in; first, let's see if the Nasdaq can hold steady, then if Hynix's earnings can take over.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 过去24小时，加密货币合约市场经历了一轮集中清算，清算总额约为5.42亿美元，超过11.5万名交易者受到影响。但真正值得关注的，不只是清算规模，而是多空双方的力量正在发生怎样的变化。 🔻 一、过去24小时，多头成为主要受害者 在总清算金额中，多头仓位清算约4.60亿美元，占比约85%。这意味着，此前押注价格上涨的交易者承受了更大的冲击。 📉 $BTC：清算金额达1.75亿美元，其中多头仓位占88.6%。 📉 $ETH：清算金额达1.57亿美元，其中多头仓位占84.4%。 📉 $SOL：清算金额约2391万美元。 📉 $ZEC：清算金额约1432万美元。 这些数据表明，市场中的杠杆多头遭遇了明显打击，尤其是那些过度依赖杠杆、缺乏风险缓冲空间的交易者。 🔄 二、真正值得警惕的变化，出现在最近几个小时 如果只看24小时数据，很容易得出多头仍然占据被动地位的结论。但最近几个小时的数据，已经出现了不同的信号。 ⏱️ 过去4小时，市场清算总额约1841万美元，其中空头仓位清算约1461万美元。 ⏱️ 过去1小时，清算总额约261万美元，其中空头仓位清算接近199万美元。 换句话说#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 is very likely to boost Q3 profits, but "boosting profits" does not necessarily mean "stock price will definitely rise." The market already has high expectations for Q3, so the stock price reaction will depend more on: the ASP/gross margin after HBM4 volume ramp-up, Q4 guidance, and shareholder returns such as special dividends/buybacks.
I will focus on four key signals during the Q3 earnings call:
1. The proportion and ramp-up of HBM4 revenue: whether it truly shifts from "shipments" to "scale revenue";
2. Q4 guidance: if it confirms continued DRAM tightness and an improved mix of HBM4/1c DRAM, the profit baseline is more likely to be revised upward;
3. LTA and ASP elasticity: long-term contracts provide stable cash flow but may sacrifice spot price increase flexibility;
4. Shareholder returns: the market has rumored a possible special dividend of up to about 160 trillion KRW, but the company says it is still under review and not confirmed; the 400 trillion KRW buyback has been completed, and subsequent plans may be mutually constrained with Solidigm's funding arrangements.#France 10-Year Government Bond Yield Surpasses US Treasuries for the First Time Since 2013
The leader has something to say
On October 22, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose to 5.14%, hitting a new high since 2002 and surpassing US Treasuries of the same maturity for the first time since 2013. The spread between French and German bonds widened to 175 basis points, reaching a 15-year high. Moody's maintains an Aa3 rating but the outlook remains negative.
I believe this is not just a credit issue of a single country, but a signal of fiscal deficit repricing among core European countries. Some comments are spot on: the French bond yield surpassing US Treasuries stems from repricing of deficit and rating risks, and credit premiums will rise systemically. Although the rating hasn't been downgraded, the negative outlook means France's credit buffer space has been exhausted.
This is a warning for the global bond market. Rising financing costs for core European countries will squeeze risk asset valuations. However, US stocks and bonds were not directly impacted today, indicating that funds currently still treat this as a localized event.
On the market front, Bitcoin took a waterfall drop last night and is now fluctuating around 80,000.
Watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The US stock market has closed, but the stocks on-chain are still falling. This is the most authentic state of this track.
OKX xStocks quotes: xSNDK, which is SanDisk, at $1576.12, up 1.79%; xSPCX, which is SpaceX, at $150.87, up 0.63%; xCRCL, which is Circle, at $101.90, up 0.56%. The 24-hour trading volumes are 4.54M, 4.99M, and 5.35M respectively. This is the real popularity ceiling of on-chain stocks.
The leverage side is even hotter. Crypto.com stock perpetual fee annualized rates: $xSNDK +94.3%, $xSPCX +57.8%, $xCRCL +25.6%. Bulls are paying a high premium.
But another set of data conflicts: Hyperliquid reports SNDK at 1297.95, down 6.61%; CRCL at 82.38, down 4.89%; SPCX at 145.90, down 2.05%; SOXL down 12.25%. The price differences far exceed the normal range. This is not an arbitrage opportunity but a liquidity gap.
The falsifiable point is this: if xSNDK is still around 1300 after the US stock market opens on Monday, it means the on-chain pricing reflects an overnight semiconductor crash, not a USDT-side failure.Ethereum's price dropped 15% this month, and the leverage on the contracts side has first contracted.
The nominal open interest of ETH contracts on Binance decreased by nearly $1.3 billion in a month, now remaining around $5.7 billion. At the same time, the total ETH contract market size shrank to about $11.5 billion. Price dropped, market cap evaporated by $54 billion, and leverage retreated — these three events happened within the same period.
On October 25, ETH spot price was around $2,330.
This market movement can be broken down into three forces: price decline, liquidation, and active position reduction. The first two are passive, the third is active — holders with positions are unwilling to hold on and cut their positions first. These three forces combined made the market lighter.
But a lighter market doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached. The leverage retreat only cleared out the most vulnerable players. For the price to rise, it depends on whether anyone is willing to buy at the $2,300 level. Contract positions cut by 20% indicate that bulls lacked confidence over the past month, not that the downward trend is over.
The real focus should be on two numbers. One is whether open interest can rebound when the price stabilizes — that would mean new money is entering; the other is whether the next price dip triggers less liquidation than this round. If less, it means the vulnerable have been cleared; if still large, it means leverage has just shifted to a new group.
$2,300 is not a pretty level, but it’s a level where the chip distribution can be clearly seen.Binance ETH contracts cut positions by 20% in one month, with open interest nominally reduced by $1.3 billion, now at $5.7 billion, while the entire market is at $11.5 billion.
During the same period, ETH dropped 15%, wiping out $54 billion in market value, with spot price around $2,330 on October 25.
Price drop, liquidations, and active position reductions are happening simultaneously. The market is lighter, but lighter doesn't mean the bottom has been reached; it depends on whether new money comes in around 2300 to catch it. If no one steps in, it just means no one is holding, not that someone is buying.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
To judge the weakening of altcoins, I first look at the relative strength signal of "falling with BTC but not rising with it." When BTC is sideways or slightly rising, altcoins not only fail to rise but instead break key support levels first; or when BTC pulls back slightly, altcoins experience a large bearish candlestick crash (i.e., the "BTC bloodsucking" effect appears). At the same time, observe whether BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is rapidly rising; if so, it indicates funds are withdrawing from altcoins back to the mainstream, and at this point, one must decisively reduce positions or short.$NEAR has been quite volatile these past two days, but the volume has remained steady, with a 24h increase of about 2.7%.
From 11 PM last night to 1 AM this morning, the price jumped directly from 4.49 to 4.69, then gradually retraced. Interestingly, at 9 AM, 11 AM, and 3 PM during the day, the price was pushed down to 4.43–4.45 three times but was supported each time, with the lower shadows getting shorter, indicating buyers waiting below.
The current price is around 4.53, stuck in the middle, so I don’t want to open a position here. Above, 4.57 is the resistance level that was tested twice this afternoon but not broken, and further up, 4.66–4.69 is the high zone from early morning. The funding rate is around 0.008%, showing no overheating.
My own plan:
Direction: Buy on pullback
Entry: 4.45–4.47
Stop loss: 4.40 (if the bottom that held three times breaks, I’m out)
Target 1: 4.60
Target 2: 4.68
At Target 1, I’ll close half the position and move the stop loss to breakeven for the rest. If there’s no pullback, I won’t chase; if it breaks below 4.40 and doesn’t recover, I’ll wait to see around 4.25, near the spike from the day before yesterday.
For NEAR here, are you waiting for a pullback, or do you think 4.43 won’t hold?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#NEAR #ContractStrategy #AIBTC had a sharp dip in the afternoon, with the lowest point at 79,638.6 at 16:00 Beijing time on OKEx.
At 17:45, it was pulled directly up to 80,549, now around 80,373, basically flat over 24h.
This week’s calendar is full: Wednesday is the Fed meeting, with results at 2 AM Thursday Beijing time. CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance of no change, 9.4% chance of a rate hike, and 0% chance of a rate cut; on Friday, about $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire.
The liquidation distribution is quite symmetrical. According to data from pumpglass contracts, there are about $100 million long liquidations near 78,701 below, about $61 million short liquidations at 81,705 above, and $110 million more at 83,145.
ETH is currently at 2,331. CoinGlass reports the largest single liquidation in 24h was a $6.97 million ETHUSDT long, liquidated near 2,322.
My view is that the liquidation levels on both sides will likely be tested before the meeting. I won’t add positions before the meeting; I’ll watch which side of 78.7k and 81.7k gets taken out first.
Based on public information, this is my personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks. Invest cautiously $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC Observation: BTC and $ETH temporarily stabilize under volume contraction recovery, but a true reversal is still premature 😌
The market finally caught a breather over the weekend. BTC returned to 80760, up 1.26% intraday; ETH touched 2355, up 2.19%, showing slightly stronger resilience.📈
But don’t rush to call a reversal. BTC’s trading volume was only 4.8 billion, ETH just over 5 billion; incremental funds have not entered, it’s still existing funds switching positions within the market.🔁 This round looks more like an oversold recovery after continuous declines, not a trend-level turning point.
External disturbances remain: next week’s FOMC meeting, midterm elections approaching, tech stocks under pressure due to AI narrative doubts, large funds tend to stay on the sidelines.⏳ BTC is temporarily holding the 80,000 level, ETH’s resistance above 2400 remains. A weak rebound on low volume is unlikely to sustain a smooth one-way move; before the macro shoe drops, repeated bottom oscillations are still the main theme.🌊
$ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ SanDisk's high growth cannot always be explained simply by "AI needs more storage." No matter how strong the demand is, how customers place orders and how contracts are set will also affect how long this business can remain stable.
The company previously disclosed that after announcing five new business model agreements in April, it signed another five agreements, three of which involve new customers and two are expansions of existing collaborations. It's especially important not to misinterpret this: five new agreements do not equal five new customers.
I am interested in these agreements because the most frustrating aspect of the storage industry is that when the market is good, everyone competes for goods, and when the market is bad, orders and prices both loosen. If the cooperation arrangements can improve procurement visibility and allow customers and suppliers to share investment risks more clearly, the company's operational quality could improve.
But the number of agreements alone cannot prove this. Details such as which products are covered, how long the agreements last, and how procurement commitments are executed are worth waiting for in subsequent disclosures. Signing agreements cannot be recognized as revenue in advance.
High growth looks exciting, and I am willing to watch. But I want to know more about how much profit the company can retain when the industry is not so hot. Only by managing customer relationships and contract mechanisms well can the company make the money earned this cycle rely less on market cycles and more on operational capability.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ This breakdown captures the most essential contradiction in the current market: under simultaneous resonance, pricing logic has already stratified.
The issue with ETH is not simply a decline, but that institutional channels are systematically retreating. In October, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.08 billion, nearly wiping out all inflows from September, mainly concentrated in ETHA. More troublingly, after Bitmine approaches the 5% holding limit, its buying pace may slow, creating a vacuum in marginal buying. On-chain withdrawals seem active, but continuous selling on the ETF side indicates that chips are flowing more from institutions to on-chain deposits rather than new demand.
SOL’s awkwardness lies in the "narrative running ahead of the funds." The Alpenglow upgrade compressed final confirmation time to 150 milliseconds, and Q3 on-chain data also hit record highs, but spot ETFs have had consecutive days of net outflows, totaling over $70 million. A busier network does not mean a more expensive token; 74% of SOL is staked and locked, so the price is ultimately determined by that small portion of liquid chips.
ZEC is both the strongest and riskiest. The NU7 upgrade launches on November 5, with privacy narratives combined with ETF channels driving a big rally this year, but positive funding rates mean longs are still paying to hold positions. Small market cap plus high leverage means once the narrative is fulfilled, it’s most prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" stampede.
Next, watch two signals: whether ETH ETF outflows narrow, and whether ZEC funding rates fall. The former determines if ETH can stop falling; the latter decides if ZEC’s strength is sustainable. Position size matters more than direction.
$ETH #StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
A question: Coinbase's expected EPS this quarter was $0.43 three months ago, now it's a loss of $0.22. With the bar cut this low, is it considered low enough or still not low enough?
Earnings report after US market close on Thursday, around 4 AM Beijing time Friday, with a conference call at 5 AM. Expected revenue about $1.2 billion, compared to $1.87 billion same period last year, and revenue has missed expectations for three consecutive quarters.
Its earnings day price movement is quite interesting: in the last 8 times, it rose 3 times and fell 5 times, the biggest drop was -20.9%, last time in July was -12.0%. Options this time only bet ±6.8%, I calculated the average actual volatility for these 8 times is 8.8%.
I will watch the trading revenue. Q2 consumer trading revenue was $452 million, down 20% year-over-year, while BTC rose nearly 27% in the past three months, not sure if trading volume kept up.
Binance perpetual is now around 162, roughly fluctuating between 160–180 in the past two weeks. If 160 breaks before earnings, sentiment won't look good; 175–180 is where previous rallies pulled back.
$COIN $BTC
Guess if the first day after earnings will be up or down? One word is enough, I'll check the answer when results come out.
Keep your own records, DYOR, this is not investment advice The green cardiac output curve on the monitor just jumped by 25%, but no one in the operating room applauded—everyone saw the still unstitched bridge vessel lying on the surface of the heart.
Intel’s heart has indeed regained its pumping function in Q2. Revenue rose by a quarter year-over-year, equivalent to the ejection fraction being lifted back from the critical threshold to the normal range; the Q3 guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion matches the expected perfusion pressure window communicated to the family before surgery. But the rule in cardiac surgery is: improved indicators don’t mean the lesion is cleared. What truly determines prognosis is the right coronary artery—the data center business—whether it can maintain blood flow under high metabolic demand, and whether the collateral circulation called foundry can stop leaking.
The demand for AI computing power objectively acts like a positive inotropic drug for this heart. The perfusion demand side is expanding; the problem lies on the supply side: the 18A and 14A process nodes are still on cardiopulmonary bypass. No matter how well the vessels are reopened, if the anastomosis lacks endothelialization and stable blood flow coverage, thrombosis will form. Foundry losses are that leaking branch—if not sutured, it will continuously consume systemic blood volume and eventually drag the whole heart into low cardiac output.
I have handled too many such cases: families holding the transferred monitoring report asking if discharge is possible, while I only care if troponin has dropped back to baseline. Revenue guidance is like a person’s blood pressure; narrowing foundry losses is their tissue perfusion. Beautiful blood pressure with cold extremities is a typical compensatory illusion, the easiest to fool non-professionals.
The neighboring bed’s ticker called $xNFLX is essentially carried along by the same hemodynamics. It doesn’t produce its own heartbeat; its rhythm fluctuates synchronously with every contraction of the main heart. Once the main heart exposed an anastomotic leak during the open-chest surgery after market close on October 29, the linked ticker’s pulse will first become irregular—not due to its own pathology, but stress-induced tachycardia following perfusion pressure collapse. What these patients fear most is never the bleeding volume, but blood pressure fluctuations during anesthesia recovery.
My judgment is simple: whether 18A can deliver effective blood flow on schedule determines if this heart goes to the recovery room or back to the ICU. Data center growth is contractility; foundry loss reduction is valve closure; no matter how good the contractility, if the valve doesn’t close tightly, blood will still reflux.
The hemostat is still in my hand. #intelq3terafabfoundry$SOL touched 295.6 during the week of 2025-01-13, which was the highest point of this cycle. The closing price on 10-26 was 101.44, a 66% drop from the peak. This decline is considered moderately large in SOL's history, but not the deepest.
From November to December 2022, SOL dropped to a low of 7.77, the lowest point after the FTX collapse. If we count from the previous high of 260 in November 2021, that was a 97% drop, almost to zero. In comparison, the current drop from 295 to 101 is 66%, which is painful but not the worst.
In the 2020 to 2022 cycle, SOL also dropped about 80% from its highest to lowest point. Each cycle's retracement varies, but SOL's retracement has always been larger than BTC's. BTC usually retraces between 60%-70% from its peak, while SOL often exceeds 70%. This time, 66% is considered moderate.
A drop from 295 to 101 is 66%, which means to rise back from 101 to 295 requires a 194% increase. Many people think "a 66% drop means a 66% rise to get back," but this is wrong. The deeper the drop, the larger the percentage increase needed to recover.
At the current 101, there are two mindsets. One is "I didn't sell at 295, so I definitely can't sell at 101, I'll wait for it to rise back." The other is "101 is 12 times higher than 7.77 in December 2022, so this level isn't low anymore." This set of positions cannot be simply interpreted as "whales collectively bearish." The simultaneous shorting of three coins, full position mode, and liquidation prices far above the current price resemble basis arbitrage or hedging positions collecting positive funding rates, rather than pure naked shorts.
BTC shorts have an unrealized loss of about $10.77 million but funding income of $3.09 million; ETH shorts have an unrealized loss of $1.75 million but funding income of $4.23 million; SOL shorts have an unrealized loss of $5.12 million but funding income of $3.8 million. This indicates price pressure, but the funding rate side still provides a buffer. As long as the funding rate remains positive, shorts can continuously "collect rent" from longs, which is a key reason institutions still dare to hold shorts during a rising market.
The risks are: first, if the funding rate turns negative, shorts switch from receiving money to paying money, breaking the position logic; second, if prices continue to rise, expanding unrealized losses may trigger margin calls or position reductions; third, if these shorts close positions en masse, it will create short-covering buying pressure, amplifying a short-term rebound.
Therefore, seeing "whales shorting" should not be directly understood as a crash signal. More worth monitoring is whether the funding rate remains positive, whether ETF capital flows recover, and whether these short positions reduce or cover margin. The above is only data interpretation and does not constitute investment advice.
$ETH For $ETH ETH today, I am more optimistic about the side with the limit orders.
There was an active sell-off of 20 million USD, but positions increased by 55 million, funding rates are hovering around zero, and the price is still near 2327.
Despite a whole day of selling, there was no new low; more people are buying at the bottom than the shorts expect. The ones who should be worried are the newly opened short positions today, with costs stuck in the 2290 to 2365 range. Any sudden sharp rise will force them to step on each other to exit. There are plenty of reasons to be bearish on ETH, but chasing shorts in this kind of market has a poor risk-reward ratio. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
This Wednesday, the earnings reports of the three major companies (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) will be the market's focus. Besides growth, more attention will be paid to cash flow and capital expenditure, but it is expected that capital expenditure will rise. No one wants to fall behind in the new cloud competition.
Will the earnings reports and guidance from the three major companies cause a V-shaped rebound in US stocks? I think the key is to wait for the shoe to drop because the bad news is basically almost all out. "The worsening situation in the Middle East causing oil prices to rise + previous cpippi exceeding expectations + AI cloud companies' bond repayment ability being fud" have all already appeared. Today Elon Musk also started fud (risk warning). Is there anything worse?
Back to fundamentals, there is still a shortage of cards, data centers, and storage. Demand remains tight but stock volatility is huge, which is nothing more than changes in expectations. To be conservative, you can wait until this week's earnings reports are out and the FOMC ends before buying some fundamentally sound stocks. I have already started buying my first positions in nbis/nvda/meta, buying in batches. Ethereum is currently going through its toughest phase. It has been the largest single liquidation target for three consecutive days on the liquidation leaderboard, with 6.97 million yesterday and 4.77 million the day before. Each time, the longs were wiped out, indicating that there is too much leverage betting on a rebound at this level. Technically, 2350 has already been broken; the next support is at 2250, and if that breaks, it will be 2100. On the fundamentals side, there is a piece of positive news: AI agents participated in the rescue work of the Glamsterdam fork. This detail is quite interesting, showing that Ethereum's development process has started to be assisted by AI, but technological progress cannot save the short-term price. What Ethereum lacks now is not narrative but capital. As long as ETFs continue to see outflows, it won't outperform Bitcoin.My judgment on the $BTC cycle is very clear: the bear market is over, and we have now entered a structurally complex early bull phase.
Rather than repeatedly debating "whether the bottom has been reached," I am more concerned about why the early bull phase is still experiencing fluctuations and pullbacks?
Glassnode's 45 cycle indicators provide a clue: by the end of June, 82% fell into the historical "extremely cold" zone; by the week of October 5, 56% returned to neutral, while the warm and hot zones combined still accounted for less than 20%. This indicates that the indicators as a whole are moving away from extreme lows but are far from entering full exuberance.
The realized market cap share of BTC moving in the last 3 months has risen to about 21%. The structure of younger coins has somewhat recovered, but this does not equate to net inflows of new funds, nor does it guarantee a sharp price increase.
My core view is: leaving the bear market does not mean immediately entering the main upward wave. $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 凌晨一笔9,21百万USDC的补仓，把一条397百万美元的多头巨鲸从悬崖边拉了回来——但真正值得盯的不是它加了多少钱，而是ETH的清算线被硬生生从2256美元压到2181美元。$ETH 一度下探2282美元，距离新清算价只剩约100美元缓冲，这不是进攻，是防守。 链上分析师余烬追踪的这条地址，持有115473枚$ETH（约272百万美元，清算价2181美元）和1539,5枚$BTC（约124百万美元，清算价70396美元）。关键洞察在于：补保证金不改变方向，只买时间。272百万美元的ETH多头若被强平，冲击会直接传导至现货与合约盘口，而70396美元的BTC防线同样是一条必须盯住的暗线。 市场最容易低估的，正是这种“被动防御型巨鲸”的信号意义。散户看到的是鲸鱼还在加钱，于是默认底部稳固；但事实是，多头需要不断输血才能维持仓位，说明下行风险并未解除，只是被延后。这是典型的杠杆结构脆弱性——价格越靠近清算密集区，波动被放大的概率越高。$BTC 与$ETH 的联动在此刻尤为敏感，任何一次插针都可能触发连锁反应。 我的判断是：2200美元是情绪关口，2181美元才是结构关口。前者决定叙事，后者In the past six months, the average cost for people buying BTC has risen to 76,000, with unrealized gains grinding down from 8.7% last week to 5.9%. The price dropped about 1,000, but the cost rose about 1,100, making it obviously tougher for those who bought in later. But 76,000 is still far from this current trade, and I won’t use it as an excuse to keep adding longs around 80,000. Long-term holders have a cost basis of only 48,600; they can afford to wait, but I don’t plan to hold this short-term position that long.
Based on the current instant noodles (market conditions), I still prefer to wait for a pullback to add longs. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,167; it was pushed down and then pulled back this morning. Now I want to see if the 80,150–80,200 range can hold. I’ll pause here and try a small position; if it falls below 79,800, I’ll admit I was wrong. I’ll take partial profits at 80,800, and the rest I’ll test around 81,000—don’t get greedy thinking you can reach 82,000 right after making some gains. Damn, the previous rebounds were just like this: when it rises, you think the profit is too little; when it falls back, you hesitate to sell.
Right now, the last thing I want to do is chase above 80,400 and comfort myself with the 76,000 cost line. If 80,000 is lost again, the reason to add longs here weakens, so I’ll exit first. If it really falls to 79,300–79,200, I won’t just hang on to add; it’s easy to get stuck near the previous low, so I’ll see if it can pull back. Conversely, if it can’t break through 80,800–81,000 again, I’ll consider switching to shorting for a short-term trade, exiting above 81,300 and covering near 80,200. The Federal Reserve meeting is on the 27th–28th this week, so I don’t want to hold positions too long for now.比特币的"数字黄金"共识会碎？先别急着摇头，真正该盯的是钱往哪边偏。 你看到的"信仰动摇"，会不会其实是资金偏好在悄悄换座位？ 这两天翻BTC、ETH和几个山寨的盘口，我反而没那么在意"量子计算哪天来"。那个叙事太远了，远到更像一张挂在墙上的风险海报。真正让我停一下的是：市场现在交易的，不是比特币会不会归零，而是风险偏好还愿不愿意为"老故事"付溢价。✨ 原文列了七个点，技术、治理、无内生价值、减半预算、监管、周期、辩证收尾。听起来很全，但容易让人误判成"BTC要完了"。我自己的理解是，它讲的是共识的长期脆弱性，不是短期价格剧本。这两件事差很远。 先看事实层：BTC的签名依赖secp256k1上的ECDSA，量子算法成熟后，已暴露公钥的旧地址确实存在被反推的风险，涉及数量以百万枚计。难点不在"有没有抗量子方案"，而在协调：开发者、矿工、交易所、巨鲸、钱包，没有统一主体能拍板。硬分叉冻结旧地址，等于碰"私钥即产权"；不碰，又可能看着资产被解。这个矛盾是真的。 但资金偏好视角下，我会多问一层：市场有没有提前给这个风险定价？目前看，没有。ETF通道、企业资产负债表、机构托管仍在把BTC往"可配In the same market conditions, BTC, ETH, and CORE have diverged, indicating that the current crypto market is no longer "rising and falling together," but rather that capital quality, narrative strength, and leverage structure are being repriced.
BTC remains a safe-haven anchor. Despite pressure from macro headwinds, ETF outflows, and leverage liquidations, its market cap dominance has risen to 60%, showing that capital is still concentrating in the safest liquidity center. ETH, on the other hand, reveals high beta and capital weaknesses: continuous ETF net outflows, with rebounds driven more by short covering than new buying; the weakening ETH/BTC ratio indicates institutional capital prefers BTC's "digital gold" narrative. CORE, as a BTCFi asset, is more elastic but its pricing depends more on ecosystem buybacks, staking flywheels, and BTCFi hype, making it more susceptible to amplified volatility from large holders' positions and sentiment when capital depth is insufficient.
In practice, it is currently unwise to simply interpret this divergence as "who is stronger," but rather to watch three signals: whether BTC can hold key support, whether ETH ETFs resume net inflows, and whether CORE ecosystem revenue buybacks materialize. BTC determines direction, ETH determines risk appetite, and CORE determines elasticity. Positioning is better suited to using BTC as a benchmark, confirming ETH ETF inflows, and CORE only for small positions tracking the narrative, avoiding excessive leverage in low liquidity.
$BTC $ETH BTC short-term holders' unrealized profits are declining; will the $76,000 cost line be breached?
Currently, BTC short-term holders with holding periods under 6 months have an average cost of about $76,000. If the price continues to fall, they may turn from profit to loss.
I judge that the likelihood of the short-term $76,000 cost line being effectively broken is low; BTC is more likely to fluctuate around $80,000.
My basis:
1. The current price is about 79.8k, still about 5% above 76k, with multiple supports above including ETF/Treasury cost (81–81.5k) and True Market Mean (about 77.5–78k). Breaking below would require continuous volume expansion.
2. Although unrealized profits have narrowed to 5.9%, the overall profitable state has not been broken since mid-August. History shows that after a brief pullback, prices often recover rather than immediately turning into widespread unrealized losses.
3. The continuous buying pushing up costs itself indicates demand; the Fed is very likely to maintain rates this week, and the macro environment lacks strong downward catalysts, so the market tends to digest and then move sideways.
4. Around 80k has been tested multiple times forming short-term equilibrium; after volatility compression, it is easier to first fluctuate rather than break unilaterally.
Trading advice: sell high and buy low near $80,000.
Lightly buy on a pullback to 79.5k, reduce positions on a rebound to 81–81.5k; if it breaks through 81.5k, target 82k; if it falls below 79k, wait and see.
Keep position control within 30%, and wait for clear signals after this week's Fed and PCE before increasing exposure. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BCH
Smaller pullback, are established assets beginning to gain safe-haven preference?
In this morning's spot snapshot, BCH's 24-hour price change was -0.50%, ranging between 270.5—282.9 USDT.
The decline is less than BTC's, indicating relatively stable performance this time, but payment tokens still belong to risk assets. Business use cases and short-term capital choices should not be conflated.
If the market continues to test lows while maintaining an advantage, evidence of resilience increases; if the rebound lags and is followed by a catch-up drop, it is not appropriate to label a single resistance to decline as a safe-haven attribute.The crash is straightforward. One cut clears the leverage, and the market becomes cleaner. What you really need to guard against is another kind of movement: the price rubbing back and forth at key levels, slowly draining your position through funding rates. Look at the current structure. BTC is around 80,400, down 4.37% over 30 days; ETH is at 2,331, down 13.35% over 30 days; SOL is at 101.6, down 16.59% over 30 days📉. The candlesticks are 30-minute intervals, with rebound bullish candles one after another, looking like a recovery. But if you extend the timeframe, the monthly declines for BTC and ETH have not been reversed by these few bullish candles. What’s more worth noting is the small print below: the bulls are paying. In the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidation volume ranged between $117 million and $133 million, with long positions accounting for 70%–80%, about $80 million to $106 million of bullish bets forcibly liquidated. Ethereum leads in liquidations, with ETH position liquidations between $39 million and $54 million, the largest single liquidation being an ETH long position of about $7 million. And ETH’s funding rate, despite the price dropping more than 8%, remains positive (+0.0008%). What does this mean? The bulls are not scared off and continue to pay to hold their positions. SOL is the same. Open interest is about $4.5 billion, with long accounts once reaching as high as 76.1%, but The "Leverage Hidden Risk" in PT Cycles: Behind High Yields, Why Is the Buffer Space Reduced to Just a Thin Layer?
Pendle's PT is often regarded as "fixed income," but once leverage is cycled in the lending market, even minor fluctuations can trigger massive liquidations.
Take $PENDLE's PT-reUSD as an example. In August 2026, the PT price dropped by only about 3%, yet it triggered approximately $36.39 million in liquidations on $MORPHO. This is not a protocol flaw but the result of some borrowers maxing out their cyclical leverage, compressing the liquidation buffer to less than 3%. When the safety cushion becomes paper-thin, even slight fluctuations can break through directly.
In response, $AAVE has advanced a proposal to extend the maturity of PT positions to February 2027 (by repaying old loans and opening new ones through flash loans). This alleviates the hard liquidation pressure but does not eliminate the high leverage risk.
As the main platform, MORPHO employs a conservative oracle design (taking the lower value between the "15-minute average price and the maturity convergence curve"), but it still cannot save positions with actively maxed-out leverage.
💡 Conclusion:
Holding PT spot until maturity is safe, but "repeated collateralization" with cyclical leverage is by no means a safety cushion. The more cycles, the thinner the buffer. When reviewing Pendle strategies, don't just focus on APY; first check the leverage multiple and liquidation buffer. When the buffer is exhausted, the principal will be liquidated as well.The official website still has the withdrawal portal up, but people are already running out.
Blast reached the regular withdrawal deadline today, with about 40.41 million USD left on the official cross-chain bridge, which is over 30% less than in early October.
The reason for shutting down the network was stated politely: operating costs exceed revenue, and no self-sustaining path could be found.
But the money didn’t follow the polite explanation. After this, if you want to withdraw, you have to interact with the bridge contract on Ethereum yourself—initiate withdrawal, submit a state proof, wait for a one-day challenge period, then add a final confirmation transaction. Ordinary people probably won’t click that OptimismPortal 👀
$BTC
$ETH Capital aspect: The quality of the ETF's "weekly positive turnaround" needs to be discounted
Last week (October 19-23), the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, ending the previous two consecutive weeks of outflows. However, the internal structure of this "positive turnaround" is unhealthy:
· On October 22 alone, there was an outflow of $137.9 million, accounting for the majority of the $1.07 billion inflow over two days.
· The cumulative net outflow for October is still about $314 million; the weekly positive turnaround is merely a repair of the previous severe outflows, not a trend of capital returning.
Another divergence worth noting: Over the past 30 days, retail investors' net BTC inflow to major exchanges doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; meanwhile, whales' net inflow dropped from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. KuCoin interprets this as— the surge in retail funds provides short-term support, but if its nature is to reduce positions during the rebound, selling pressure above will gradually emerge as prices rebound. In other words, the current "support" may contain a large amount of chips waiting to be freed, rather than firmly bullish funds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The latest Glassnode spot CVD data is worth a close study. CVD measures the strength of active buying and selling: a positive value indicates buyers are more eager, while a negative value indicates sellers are more eager. In 2025, the 30-day average CVD across all exchanges was about negative $4.2 billion, and it never turned positive for a single day throughout the year! This indicates that active selling dominated for a long time, especially Binance, which contributed a large amount of selling pressure. But changes have already appeared! In the last 90 days, the average negative pressure has narrowed to less than one-tenth of the 2025 level. Note! A weakening selling pressure does not mean that buying has taken over the market. The latest data shows that Coinbase, Binance, and all exchanges' CVD have simultaneously fallen back below the zero line. This means that although the market has improved somewhat, active buying still lacks sustainability. My cycle judgment remains unchanged: BTC has entered the early bull phase, but the early bull phase does not mean the main upward wave has started immediately. Consolidation, pullbacks, and chip reshuffling are all processes that a complex early bull phase may experience. The key question around $80,000 now is not whether sellers still have chips, but whether buyers can continue to absorb them. Sellers are no longer in such a hurry, but buyers also seem reluctant to open their wallets. This long and short game in the early bull phase has just entered a critical stage! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Retail investors sent 10.75 billion to Binance in 30 days, while whales only have 3.8 billion left
◆BTC | Sell pressure is from retail investors
BTC is now 80,408, up 0.07% in 24 hours, high 80,952, low 79,369, touched 80,575 in the evening, holding above 80,400. CryptoQuant's Darkfost data today: retail investors' BTC sent to Binance in 30 days rose from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, a six-month high; whales dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion in the same period. Retrace to 80,300–80,400 hourly line to stabilize and connect, close above 80,575 aiming for 80,952; close below 80,000 withdraw, close below 79,368 invalidates.
◆ETH | Old whales only sent 1,500 coins
ETH is now 2,330, up 0.06% in 24 hours, high 2,365, low 2,293. Today, 2015 ICO old whales moved 5,000 coins within 2 hours, only 1,500 coins entered exchanges, about 3.45 million USD, compared to 169,770 coins net outflow in a single day a few days ago, not even the same scale. Reclaim 2,340 to look at 2,365, retrace to 2,310–2,330 to stabilize and connect; close below 2,293 exit.
Sell pressure is in retail investors' hands, whales have not let go yet.$BTC
BTC is now hovering around 80400, climbing back above 80,000 after four consecutive weekly declines. The 24-hour low was 79377; honestly, it hasn't fully stabilized yet.
What concerns me more is that Galaxy's figure: 11.1 million BTC addresses are of unknown ownership. With a 21 million cap, more than half are unaccounted for. I was stunned for a few seconds when I first saw this number.
The Federal Reserve meeting is early Wednesday morning; before the 80,000 level settles, there will likely be back-and-forth fluctuations. Whether to take a side or not, I'll wait for it to move first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH is now at 2330, down more than half from the high of 4946 last August. The monthly chart is down 13%, the weekly chart down 4%, and the daily chart is being suppressed by the MA20, which looks really tough. But what I want to say is the other side: whales are withdrawing tokens below 2300, exchange withdrawals are at a high level, Lido staking volume is hitting new highs, with 35.9% of supply locked in staking — although the yield has dropped to only 2.6%. ETFs had a net outflow of 1.18 billion in October, leveraged longs were liquidated by tens of millions, these are facts. Arthur Hayes has liquidated his position, but he is a trader, not a believer, so his actions do not indicate a problem with ETH fundamentals. Money has rotated into AI, U.S. Treasuries, and other FOMC-related assets; this is rotation, not exit. JPM Coin has expanded to the Ethereum mainnet, BlackRock and JPMorgan use it as a settlement layer, and the stablecoin battlefield of 143 billion is also here. The daily RSI at 29-35 is close to oversold, MACD shows a bearish alignment but there is a nascent bullish divergence. Declines with volume and rebounds with shrinking volume is a typical weak pattern. Resistance is at 2360-2400, only above that can we look at 2450-2500; breaking below 2290 targets 2200-2280. A low-volume rebound near 2330 to 2360-2380 can be lightly shorted with a stop loss at 2400; break below 2290 with volume to chase shorts. Bulls wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle at 2300 to try again, stop loss at 2280. Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet was delayed due to EIP security issues, which is also weighing on sentiment.