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$DOOD surged 64% in one day. I advise you not to click buy just yet.
This coin's circulating market cap is only between 10 to 20 million USD.
On the day of the surge, the trading volume was 213 million, more than five times the entire project’s market cap.
A small shop valued at 38,000 sold 210,000 worth of gift cards in one afternoon.
Is this booming business or the same card being flipped back and forth?
The project team hasn’t said a word, no announcements, no partnerships, no products, yet it doubled in price with zero news.
The short sellers are there.The "Burn Paradox" of Meme Launchpad: Burning Billions, Why Does the Token Price Still Remain Flat?
Meme Launchpad is a highly profitable business with astonishing burn figures. But the truth is: buybacks only address the supply side; if the demand side doesn't hold, no matter how much is burned, it's just artificial respiration for assets without real use cases.
Let's look at these three tokens:
$PUMP has the most aggressive buyback: 50% of revenue is used for automatic burns, with about $414.6 million spent cumulatively by late July (later exceeding $450 million), burning 153.7 billion tokens (15.4% of total supply). Yet the price remains sluggish—users playing on the platform simply don't need to hold the token. Lacking rigid demand, burns can't offset the continuous unlocking and selling pressure.
$PONS has an even more aggressive mechanism: 80% of revenue is used for buybacks, 32% of total supply already burned, and TGE tokens are fully circulating with no unlocking schedule. Although deflation is intense, its lifeline is still tied to Meme hype, lacking stable cash flow.
$BNB serves as the core comparison group. Its burns are based on an Auto-Burn formula (not directly linked to profits), but BNB is a must-have asset for Gas fees, new token launches, and staking. Burns are meaningful because demand is real and sustained, not just a numbers game.
Summary:
Burning is the numerator; the token's rigid demand is the denominator. When the denominator approaches zero, a high burn ratio is meaningless. When evaluating launchpad tokens, first ask: aside from speculation, why must users hold it? If there is no reason, buybacks only provide exit liquidity for unlocking holders.Google Cloud surged 82%, but cash flow turned negative—so is this AI really profitable?
First, let's talk about the contrast. Google Cloud's revenue last quarter was ¥24.768 billion, up 82% year-over-year, the fastest growth in history, and accelerating for four consecutive quarters: 34, 48, 63, 82. Operating margin jumped from 20.7% straight to 35.6%.
The data is truly impressive. But on the other hand, $GOOGL's capital expenditure this year is set to hit ¥195 to ¥205 billion, doubling last year's ¥91.4 billion, and expected to increase further to ¥350 billion by 2027 according to Goldman Sachs. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in decades in a single quarter, and the company has even started selling stock and preferred shares to raise money for AI.
Now, two camps are fiercely debating.
The bears shout: It's a bottomless pit. Can the small cloud profits cover ¥200 billion in depreciation?
The bulls say: Cloud has ¥500 billion in backlog orders, and profit margins are still doubling. This isn't burning money; it's just that capacity hasn't been built yet, and orders are queued up.
I side with the latter. To judge whether AI investment is paying off, don't just focus on cash flow; look at whether cloud growth and profit margins are rising together—both of which Google is delivering, indicating AI isn't just hype, but real money coming in. Negative cash flow just means buying future capacity in advance.
The Q3 report is coming out in the next few days. If cloud really hits over 90% as expected, those criticizing the burn rate will have to recalculate.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ The market has been really tough these past two days. The most frustrating short positions are when you get the direction right but don't make any money. BTC dropped to around 79,300 this morning, then bounced back to 80,479 in the afternoon, nearly a 1,000-point recovery. ETH at 2,333, SOL at 101.5, they all followed suit. Damn, when it dropped this morning I thought I could wait a bit longer, but now I'm stuck debating whether to close the position.
This round I'm leaning slightly bullish, but I don't want to chase above 80,400. The 15-minute 20 moving average for BTC is at 80,167, just recovered it, so I want to see if there are still buyers if it pulls back. I plan to buy a bit between 80,150 and 80,200, cut losses if it drops back to 79,800, and sell half near 80,800. It hasn't passed 81,000 yet, so I'm not interested in calling a reversal for now. I wanted to short on the rebound this morning, but since the price has pulled back to the moving average, I won't place that short order for now—no need to force the morning idea.
For ETH, I want to wait around 2,320, exit below 2,305, take some profit at 2,350, and see if it can reach 2,365. It hasn't outperformed BTC this time, so don't get greedy just because it bounced back thirty bucks. The Hoodi testnet upgrade has also been postponed; it was originally scheduled for today but was canceled last week, so don't use old schedules to boost your confidence in longs. SOL has been recovered from below 100, but chasing above 101.5 is risky; 102.2 is just above. I'd rather wait near 101 and admit a mistake at 100.4. Today I want to focus more on BTC, at least it's closer to the level I want to enter. The short positions from this morning haven't closed yet; should I close now or wait for another dip?The Ethereum Foundation's sale of 2,785 ETH has indeed attracted market attention, but with a volume of just over $6 million, it is hard to say this is the fundamental cause of the decline given the massive daily trading volume.
This is more of a routine fund management by the Foundation to maintain daily operations and support ecosystem development.
However, this phenomenon is seen as a top-escape indicator because the Foundation, as insiders who understand the project best, tend to cash out when market liquidity is ample and prices are at a phase high.
This cannot be taken as an absolute contrary indicator, but it is indeed a short-term sentiment reference point worth watching.别被跌幅榜骗了，今天更像分歧，不是启动 ✨ 跌幅第一就等于最弱吗？ 早上扫了一眼榜单，$CT 挂着 -11.39% 排在最前，但 24 小时其实只跌了 3.44%，1 小时价格 -1.48%，未平仓合约 222 万还在小幅加仓。这说明它不是被持续抛售，而是短时被砸出一个坑，空头没有真正接管节奏。很多人看到榜首就默认趋势坏了，这里恰恰容易误判。 真正让我皱眉的是 $ORDER。24 小时 -24.39%，1 小时又跌 6.65%，持仓减 3.87%，资金费率 -0.2802% 负得很深，成交 7774 万、量仓比 47.1。负费率配减仓，更像杠杆多头在被清出去，而不是新空头大举建仓。这种结构往往意味着下跌已进入后半段，但反手做多还太早，因为情绪修复需要时间。 $APR 是另一个镜子。昨天刚收 +59%，今天 24 小时仍 +36.93%，却从高位回落 7.17%，持仓减 8.56%，成交 2.26 亿、量仓比 111.5。热度还在，仓位先撤，这是典型的派发前奏而非启动。$RLS 昨夜冲 +41% 后回吐，1 小时又弹 4.23%，属于余温未散的震荡。 把这些拼起来看，现在处在启动后的第一#美国多家银行限制AIAgent访问客户账户
"JPMorgan Takes Harsh Measures to Block AI Butler"
JPMorgan and Bank of America recently abruptly cut off AI butlers' access to online banking statements. On the surface, they cite fraud prevention and protecting depositors' assets, but behind the scenes, they are defending against Silicon Valley tech companies.
The Federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been urging major banks to provide data interfaces, but banks clearly understand that once AI applications directly access depositors' transaction records, the distribution channels for loans and wealth management services will all belong to tech giants.
These veteran Wall Street financial institutions would rather take the heat than let go of the gatekeeper role over users' transaction data. $BTC On one side, mainstream coins remain stagnant, while on the other, hot coins suddenly surge. Who is being shaken out in this wave?
First, look at $BTC: latest 80,531. In the past two days, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of about $773 million, with institutions clearly reducing their risk exposure.
Next, look at $ETH: 2335. Essentially following BTC's recovery, with no independent narrative; sentiment remains cautious.
Finally, look at $QNT: latest 208.81, up 11.71% today. At the end of September, US clearing giant TCH selected Quant to provide Overledger-based interoperability and transaction management technology for its "on-chain currency program," connecting to RTP and CHIPS core clearing systems. However, in the past two weeks, deleveraging has occurred, with futures volume dropping from about $190 million to $120 million, bulls taking profits, and the coin price retreating temporarily. The team is still advancing multi-chain integration (including the Solana ecosystem) and exploring digital settlement compliance in the Asia-Pacific region. Today feels more like the afterglow of the narrative, not the start of a new trend.
Summary: Funds are seeking a narrative safe haven rather than an overall increase in risk appetite. The real risk to guard against is: BTC approaching 81,000 but lacking breakout momentum; upward funds are easily shaken out before macro fundamentals land.
Do you think BTC will break through 81,000 first, or QNT will reach 220 first? Share your judgment in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #QNT
The above content is for information recording only and does not constitute investment advice.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ This morning I was still worried that 79,000 wouldn't hold, but in the afternoon BTC pulled back to 80,479, ETH 2,333, SOL 101.5. Damn, with this market, if you get a little greedy on short positions, you end up giving the profits back. The rebound short strategy from this morning can't be blindly continued; BTC has already reclaimed 80,000, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,167, and the MACD has turned up, so at least someone is willing to buy this wave for now.
Right now, I want to wait for BTC to drop near 80,200 to try some longs, rather than chasing above 80,400 on these recent candles. If it falls below 79,800 again, I'll exit. If it bounces to 80,800, I'll take some profit first. The 80,900–81,000 range has been a resistance several times before; once it gets there, I won't gamble anymore. If it just pulls away directly, I'll accept it. Chasing in and then seeing it retreat back to 80,000 would be really frustrating. ETH isn't as straightforward as BTC; it just touched back to the 2,332 20 moving average, and at 2,333 people are eager to chase, but I'm hesitant to jump in. I want to wait for a pause around 2,320 before adding, with 2,305 as a stop-loss. If it can bounce to 2,350–2,365, I'll take profits.
There's also news to watch for ETH: the originally scheduled Hoodi testnet upgrade for today was announced last week to be postponed, as they need to continue checking compatibility issues between EIP-8037 and existing contracts. Don't mistake the old upgrade schedule for today's positive news. SOL pulled back from 99.83 to 101; if it can hold near 101, I'll consider adding a bit. I'll exit below 100.4 and sell near 102.2. I won't open all three positions at once, leaning more towards waiting on BTC. Did you guys close your short positions from this morning?$SKHYNIX SK Hynix's 10 billion dividend can't hide the downturn, is 980-1000 the best shorting point?
Hynix's Q3 profit is expected to surge 8 times, and they are planning a record 10 billion dividend, which seems very impressive. But don't forget, the stock market trades on expectations, and this huge wealth has already been realized in the previous rally.
The current market is actually very weak. Although it has rebounded from the bottom, the upward momentum is clearly insufficient and lacks the strength to break through resistance. The most critical point is that when the price is creeping up, the open interest is sharply decreasing, indicating that the main players are not buying but borrowing the rebound to exit.
The 980-1000 range is both a previous high resistance and a round number barrier. Without new funds stepping in, this is very likely a bull trap.
It is recommended to short at the current price or to enter short positions on rallies within this range, targeting 960, and if it breaks below, look at 940. Use stop-loss properly and trade the pullback after the positive news has been fully priced in.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 今天BTC在8万美元附近来回拉锯 盘中最低摸到约79300 是9月18日以来的低位 ETH在2360美元上下 数据为10月26日白天行情 非严格收盘价 以交易所实时为准 今天这盘怎么说呢 像三个前任同时给你发消息 第一个是伊朗 周末美国撤侨 市场怕报复 避险情绪直接拉满 第二个是美联储 27-28号议息 9月已经加息到3.75%到4% 这次再加概率不高 但12月被押注的概率不低 第三个是ETF 22号23号两天净流出约7.7亿美元 机构也在追涨杀跌 三个人都不好回 所以大家选择已读不回 价格就在8万附近晃 但有个细节我觉得挺有意思 ETF在往外跑 巨鲸却在往里捡 数据显示8月底以来巨鲸大概增持了6万BTC 散户机构在前门排队退货 大户在后门悄悄进货 这种剧情一般不会马上反转 但值得盯 不过数据来自分析师引述 我没对照原始数据 大家引用前自己核一下 明天怎么看 周三凌晨议息才是正片 周五还有BTC月度期权交割 本周事件密集 波动多半不会小 8万整数关口可以当观察位 不是信仰位 操作上我的态度很朴素 降杠杆比抄底重要 议息前后仓位轻一点 别在婚礼当天同时处理前任和伴娘迟到 想捡的话 分批小周末的风险偏好正在被外部市场一根根抽走，而加密市场给出的反应极具欺骗性：$BTC 现报 80074，24小时仅跌 0.78%，但全网总市值同期缩水 4.24%，BTC 市占率已升至 59.98%，距 60% 只差一步。这不是普跌，这是一次资金向头部资产的单向收缩。 真正值得盯住的信号来自传统市场的边缘角落：黄金失守 4000 美元，美伊冲突风险升温，而在东京上市的巴西股票 ETF 被砸到熔断。更微妙的是，EWZ 永续合约资金费率为 -1.48%，全交易所最低，空头正用合约对冲巴西资产风险。当避险情绪浓到连股票 ETF 都要靠负费率买保护时，加密市场的山寨端不可能独善其身。 盘面已经给出了答案。大市值币种几乎纹丝不动，失血全部集中在山寨：$Q 重挫 25.93%，$COMP 下跌 11.17%，换手率分别为 18% 和 17%。这是典型的仓位被动出清，而非主动做空。逆势方向只有 $CAP，暴涨 38.48%，换手率 46%，资金费率 +0.07%，说明追多者正在付费持有多头杠杆——这种结构脆弱且拥挤，恰恰是风险偏好收缩末期最常见的景象。 我的判断是：未来 72 小时，BTC 市占率将突破Capital institutions have not uniformly exited the crypto market — instead, they have become more selective.
On October 23, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw about $138 million in outflows, while Grayscale's Zcash ETF attracted $20.5 million in inflows.
A single trading day cannot confirm a rotation of funds, but this divergence is worth noting: is capital moving down the risk curve, or simply hedging BTC exposure?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🔥SK Hynix, sudden major positive news, soaring straight up
SK Hynix confirmed on Monday (26th) that it will announce shareholder return measures simultaneously when releasing its Q3 financial report on Wednesday (28th). Market rumors suggest the company may distribute a special dividend of up to 160 trillion KRW (about 12.1 billion USD). After the news broke, the Hong Kong stock market saw SK Hynix double-leveraged longs surge nearly 6% in the afternoon, while SK Hynix's stock price in the Korean market rose over 2% against the market trend on Monday.
Reports citing informed investment banking sources indicate that the special dividend SK Hynix plans to distribute may be funded by the cash proceeds from its stake reduction in Kioxia during the year.
Calculations show that SK Hynix gradually cleared its Kioxia shares in Q1 and Q2 this year, realizing a net gain of about 200 trillion KRW (equivalent to 15.1 billion USD) after deducting initial investment costs. If the 160 trillion KRW special dividend is implemented, it would account for about 80% of the net gain from this investment.
Data shows that in 2018, Bain Capital led a consortium of investors from the US, Japan, and South Korea to acquire Toshiba's memory business and formed Kioxia. At that time, SK Hynix subscribed to Kioxia's stocks and convertible bonds through two special purpose companies, with a total investment of about 40 trillion KRW. As Bain Capital fully exited its remaining Kioxia shares during the year, SK Hynix also completed its full exit from its holdings.
The market also showed some disturbance signals: On October 26, it was reported that two leveraged ETFs linked to SK Hynix, listed on the US stock market for only a few months, plan to liquidate and delist, indirectly reflecting a cooling of market enthusiasm for the AI trading sector $SKHYNIX $DOOD
A 2021 old NFT project token, surged 268% in two days, then dropped back 66% in four days, and today it jumped 50% again. You tell me if this market is scary or not. Anyway, I dare not touch it.
Doodles coin was only issued last May. There was no official announcement for this round of surge; it was purely driven by Korean retail investors. The Korean won markets on Upbit and Bithumb took the bulk, and Bithumb itself issued a warning— a few accounts accounted for more than half of the trading volume, with prices 10-20% higher than the global average. Experienced players know the term Korean premium well; the pullback will be the fastest.
I did a quick test on OKX; today the lowest was 0.001374, the highest surged to 0.002666, now around 0.0023, up nearly 60% in 24 hours. The funding rate is currently -0.93%, settled at 8 o'clock, shorts have to pay nearly 1% tax every 8 hours, a typical short squeeze. The total position is only 3.94 million USD, 24-hour trading volume reached 125 million, turnover is 30 times the position, purely a chip game.
No story, no announcement, all relying on funds and sentiment, no matter how much it rises, it's just passing the hot potato. I won't participate, just watching the Korean capital show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 There is a wallet that recently performed the most classic contrarian moves in the crypto space.
In January this year, it sold ETH at $3109. In September, it sold again at $2679. In October, it bought back at $2353. These three moves sold at relatively high points and bought at relatively low points, with a rhythm steadier than most.
On-chain data shows that the wallet's fund source is labeled as Tornado. Since October 23, it has cumulatively bought 3000.5 ETH, worth about $7.06 million at current prices. But it didn't stop after buying; it swapped this batch of ETH to BTC through THORChain cross-chain.
Two details are worth pondering. First, its judgment on ETH is short-term bullish and long-term bearish: it first takes profits on the rebound, then shifts its position to BTC. Second, it uses a cross-chain protocol instead of an exchange, clearly avoiding custody and real-name traces.
The Tornado label on the fund source indicates this wallet itself is not clean, so blindly following its decisions is of limited significance. What is truly useful is the behavior pattern: large funds are willing to buy ETH around 2350 but are unwilling to hold it long-term; converting to BTC is the team it ultimately wants to join.
For holders, this is more like a reminder: this ETH rebound might be real, but the funds' final destination may not stop at ETH. #HOODQ3TradingGrowth robinhood chain, robinhood's blockchain where users trade stock tokens, saw dex volume fall 30% to $6.35b in october 6-12. but defi tvl rose to $1.058b from september 30 to october 12, and morpho, a lending protocol, held $486.8m of open loans there. so lending is now a large use, not only trading. that week, borrowers paid about $417k in interest and liquidation bonuses on morpho, but morpho recorded zero protocol revenue.$BTC is not stubborn; the logic behind building the position was never to buy at the lowest point.
$BTC: 83,000-85,000 is the largest chip concentration area, with 53% of the capital cost above 83,000. Every step upward has someone looking to break even. My long position cost is within this range; the unrealized loss is the "cost of being stuck on the road," not a wrong direction.
$ETH: weaker, but 2,300-2,400 is a repeatedly tested support zone, with buy orders defending 2,315 and 2,325. Leverage below 5x means surviving to wait for recovery, not betting on a single needle move.
Why not cut losses when losing?
The meaning of low leverage is to leave room for "waiting."
ETF suffered heavy outflows in October; ETH spot ETF net outflows exceeded 1 billion, and macro is also suppressed ahead of the FOMC. But since August, whales have accumulated about 60,000 BTC in the 80,000-86,000 range, raising the new whale cost to 77,000. Strong hands are rotating positions; weak hands are cutting losses. I choose to stand on the side of time.
Trading is not about who makes the most on a single day, but who can keep breathing according to plan amid unrealized losses.
Losing, but not panicking. Waiting for the FOMC to give a direction.$BTC
Strategy's market cap has surpassed the Nasdaq exchange, I was stunned for a few seconds when I just saw this number. A company propped up by hoarding coins has a market cap that has overtaken the old exchange selling listing licenses; the world is changing fast.
I casually checked the on-chain data; CryptoQuant's realized price has climbed to around $75,000, which is the average cost line of all network positions. The current price is $80,500, fluctuating between $79,400 and $81,000 in 24 hours, staying close to this line. If it drops there, it will likely be supported; I said this last year, and I’m saying it again now.
Interestingly, there are voices on both sides. Some strategists rank BTC and gold as the two worst-performing assets in 2026, while Galaxy's statistics say 11.1 million BTC have no known holders, accounting for 55% of the mined supply. One side calls it bad, while half the coins' whereabouts are unknown; these coins are either lying in institutional cold wallets or the keys have long been lost. The circulating supply is much tighter than the ledger shows.
Those bearish in words are hoarding in hand; as a small retail investor, I won’t join the frenzy, just holding my position and watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $2500 was support. Now it’s the ceiling that flip says more than the level itself. When a zone that used to attract buyers starts attracting sellers, it means the defenders already left, not that new sellers arrived. $ETH ‘s been doing this quietly while $BTC gets the headlines underperforming on bounces, leading on pullbacks. That’s the real tell, not the 2339 print. Until ETH leads green days instead of following red ones, every “support” is just a pause before the next test.AI drives storage demand, and this logic has already been well discussed. Next, I want to look at an indicator that’s not so suitable for headlines: how much power is needed to complete the same work.
When data centers purchase memory, they of course consider capacity and bandwidth, but the entire system also involves power supply, cooling, and operating costs. No matter how impressive the performance parameters of a single product are, if it increases power consumption too much once installed in a server, customers have to recalculate their costs.
This is also why competition among storage companies can’t always just be about "who expands production more." When customers calculate investment based on the entire system, energy efficiency, stability, and adaptation progress all have the chance to influence the final purchasing decision.
I am optimistic about this direction. It gives companies that truly make good products the opportunity to compete for orders through technological differences, rather than relying on industry price hikes every round.
But optimism must have limits. The test performance announced by manufacturers still needs verification before large-scale deployment by customers; power savings also need to be calculated in conjunction with purchase price and system conditions.
Chip stocks rise and fall daily, which can be frustrating after watching for a while. However, rather than guessing which sector will rebound tomorrow, I prefer to find companies that can actually solve real cost problems for customers. Customers’ electricity bills may be more honest than the slogans in the market.
#AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 Gold fell another 1.29%, spot dropped below 4,000; BTC, however, rose 1.42%. Is safe-haven capital really rotating? First, the news. Three numbers: Gold 4,007.9 (-1.29%, spot 3,996.90), BTC 80,933.5 (+1.42%, nearly one week -0.30%), US Dollar Index 101.81 (+0.20%). On the capital side: BTC ETF net inflows for the eighth consecutive day (+29.2 million), 5-day +202.3 million, 10-day +299.4 million. On the sentiment side: Fear & Greed Index from 51 to 54. On the stock market side: S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%). Next, looking at capital impact. The inverse relationship between gold and BTC has been the main theme over the past two weeks: gold fell from 4,200 to 4,000, BTC rose from 79,000 to 81,000. During this process, gold's safe-haven premium is retreating, while BTC is seeing capital inflows. But note: the US dollar strengthened during the same period, which pressures both — so this is not a "broad rally driven by dollar depreciation," but rather a "reallocation of capital between two asset classes." Implications for BTC: if this rotation continues, it means BTC is regaining its "asset allocation" status — not as a safe-haven asset, but as the preferred risk asset. However, one day of divergence does not indicate a trend; at least a week of continuity is needed. I will next watch four indicators: first, whether gold can hold 3,950; second, whether BTC can break above 82 Honestly, the market next week won't be calm; good news and bad news are all packed together.
$BTC $ETH
Israel has elections on Tuesday, with the tough current prime minister falling behind in polls and the neutral faction clearly leading. If the moderates take power, the Middle East conflict is likely to cool down, which would be a solid positive for the crypto space and the US stock market.
The Federal Reserve will also join the fray early Thursday morning next week, basically locked in not to raise interest rates, which is a stabilizing signal. Just watch whether Powell's speech is hawkish or tough; a slightly hawkish tone would actually be somewhat positive.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
But the real main event is still the US-Iran situation!
Whether Trump is serious or just talk, the market is stuck on this answer. Without a clear signal from him, the market will likely remain weak until after the midterm elections.
What retail investors can do is not to hold on stubbornly. Many coins have already corrected by 20%, so buying the dip a little is fine, but don't go all in, and definitely avoid high leverage.
Be patient, hold your spot positions steady, and avoid this chaotic period. Once the US-Iran situation gives a clear signal, the new market trend will naturally restart. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about "privacy + post-quantum resistance."
If you are a holder of $ZEC or $NEAR, there is a recent overlooked technical advancement that could very well become a hidden catalyst for the privacy sector going forward.
ZEC and NEAR are attempting to achieve substantial deep integration in cross-chain privacy.
Cross-chain has always been a vulnerability for privacy assets. Currently, exchanging ZEC through NEAR Intents inevitably exposes a refund address on the public chain, which is also vulnerable under AI computing power.
To address this risk, the ZEC node development team proposed a plan roughly stating: in the future, every cross-chain exchange conducted via NEAR will automatically derive a "one-time private key" for you.
This means that even if quantum computing power eventually cracks a refund address, it will only see an isolated single transaction and will not be able to access your main wallet or core assets.
Those familiar with ZEC should know that the official major event planned is a network upgrade in January next year to implement post-quantum signatures for transparent address pools.
Now, this cross-chain privacy patch is expected to be implemented directly on the software wallet side within the next few weeks.
This is equivalent to the ZEC team submitting a solution ahead of the "post-quantum exam" coming in January, addressing the issue of public key exposure in cross-chain scenarios in advance.
From a narrative hype perspective, this not only solidifies ZEC's fundamentals as the privacy leader but also indirectly provides a security endorsement for NEAR's cross-chain infrastructure Conclusion first: The US spot $BTC ETF had a net inflow of $301 million last week, but this money came in early in the week and was withdrawn again on Thursday and Friday.
Structure is more important than numbers: From Monday to Wednesday, there was an inflow of $1.08 billion, with $BTC surging to a weekly high of 84,777 on Wednesday; on Thursday and Friday, about $774 million flowed out, and the coin price retreated to around 80,000 (according to my OKX 4H chart: this week's high 84,876, low 79,168). During the same period, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow for the fourth consecutive week, about $221 million.
DWF Labs' research on Thursday was even more sobering: Since the ETF launched in January 2024, out of 8 drops exceeding 15%, 7 times the ETF saw net outflows — "ETF investors are not the bottom-fishers you think they are."
On-chain side: OKX $BTC perpetual at 80,504, open interest $3.42 billion (Thursday $3.36 billion), funding rate continuously positive but only 0.00002~0.0001 every 8 hours, leverage is not heavy; the Fear and Greed Index is 50 today, neutral.
So is this $300 million a bottom-fishing fund, or the tail end of a rebound reduction? At the 80,000 level, will the ETF withdraw again?As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, the market's most focused question resurfaces: Does Bitcoin really have enough momentum this time to break through the key resistance level of $85,000? 🔍 Many overlook a crucial fact: market trends depend not only on whether the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged but more on whether this decision has already been priced in by the market and the policy signals Powell subsequently releases. ⚠️ If the Fed holds rates steady but Powell's speech remains hawkish, the market's brief optimism could quickly reverse, buying pressure may weaken, selling pressure could increase again, and Bitcoin might fall back into a correction. 🔑 The three key factors that truly determine whether the breakout can hold: 📌 First, beware the expectation trap of "holding rates." Pausing rate hikes does not necessarily mean the market will rise. If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks or hints that high rates will persist longer, risk assets may still face pressure. 📊 Second, watch spot fund flows and trading volume. For Bitcoin to effectively break through $85,000, genuine buying and sustained spot volume support are needed. If the price rises without volume backing, the reliability of this breakout is questionable. 🐋 Third, pay attention to the liquidity structure near $85,000. This level may gather many stop-loss orders, short positions, and potential liquidation orders. Only if the price can break through, hold steady, and gain sustained buying support is there more reason to believe the trend is strengthening BTC is holding near $80,888, essentially unchanged over 24 hours, while ETH is down 0.73%. That relative calm is notable amid attention to ETF-flow swings: price stability may reflect absorption, but it does not confirm durable demand. A renewed flow reversal would weaken the read. Not financial advice.Brothers, BTC and the second coin were suppressed before the central bank's super week, but ETH's on-chain data is going against the ETF
$BTC $80,500 | $ETH $2,335
Bitcoin slid from above 81,000 to around 80,500, once dropping below 80,000 to 79,398 during the session. Ethereum is struggling around 2,335. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $481 million, with longs accounting for $346 million, 64% of net long positions built above 81,993, all currently at a floating loss.
The sell-off is due to macro risk aversion. Before the Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting, the market is generally risk-averse, with tech stocks and crypto being sold off together, and oil prices staying high suppressing risk appetite. BTC's 80,000 is near the 365-day moving average; after breaking below, it quickly pulled back, with funds defending this level.
But ETH showed a counterintuitive signal. Ethereum exchanges saw a net outflow of about 169,800 ETH in one day, worth about $407 million, the largest single-day outflow in nearly four months. Available supply is decreasing, yet the ETF is still bleeding.
Technically, BTC's 79,600-80,000 is a short-term defense line; breaking below points to 78,000. ETH's 2,330 is a key level; holding it allows room for recovery.
Let's discuss in the comments: with ETH exchange outflows and ETF bleeding, who will decide this time?👇
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 10.26 Trump said, "I want to take on Iran," Bitcoin hovered around 80,000 for two days but still in panic.
The small double bottom held. From my technical and logical perspective:
1. The consensus in the crypto community is that integer price levels are hard to break. 80,000 is a dense zone for buying during downtrends and selling during uptrends. This time, the price was hammered twice near 79,000 but was supported both times, indicating short-term bearish momentum is weakening.
2. Both the two bottom tests and rebounds lacked volume, indicating no continued panic selling and no inflow of new funds. Simply put, there is heavy selling high and buying low between 79,200 and 80,900, just grinding time waiting for the Fed and midterm elections.
Here are three key events:
1. U.S. Midterm Elections: This will directly determine the future direction of crypto regulation. If the Republicans take both houses, it’s definitely bullish for Bitcoin. If the Democrats win, they will definitely regulate crypto.
2. The Fed’s rate decision on Thursday: On one hand, the market is digesting high interest rates waiting for Thursday’s announcement; on the other, it’s wary of a possible rate hike in December. Tightening through rate hikes is directly bearish for Bitcoin.
3. Crude oil remains high, inflation hasn’t cooled down completely, so the Fed has no reason to turn dovish, and funds dare not bottom-fish Bitcoin at 80,000.
Simply put: it’s not that Bitcoin can’t fall further, but everyone has paused, waiting for these events to choose a direction.
I’ve said before the bottoms are at 75,000 and 62,000. Now the support above at 84,000 has broken, and it’s stuck at 80,000.
With Middle East conflicts, Trump plans to strike Iran after the elections. As conflicts escalate, Bitcoin will drop to 75,000-70,000 within a month. I will keep shorting Bitcoin, shorting on rebounds.
Currently, with WTI crude oil over 100 and Bitcoin facing resistance at 84,000, 5x shorting is very safe.
Considering crude oil energy inflation + Middle East risks + 4% high interest rates + continued rate hikes this year, I don’t consider going long on Bitcoin. Usually, 3-6 months after the elections, Bitcoin will see a big rally, which might coincide with the end of US-Iran conflicts and easing tensions.
I will start gradually shorting between 83,000-84,000.
Targeting below 77,000 due to the dual bearish factors of elections and Middle East conflicts, expected to be achieved before the end of November.$T T's fee rate is simply outrageous, 4-hour settlement at -0.35%, which annualizes to a negative yield of over -760%.
The key point is that the open interest (OI) is only 6.53 million, accounting for less than 2% of the 24-hour trading volume.
This indicates that the previous rally was all driven by spot buying, with hardly any leveraged long positions built up.
Now the shorts are paying huge interest daily, and the downward pressure can't trigger a chain of liquidations. As long as the spot market buys a couple more times, the short squeeze can directly push the price back up.
#T
$T
👇Today is October 26, and a set of data just came out today that’s even more worth watching than the price itself.
"2,300 broke, but only 3,500 people remain queued to sell ETH"
Ethereum’s intraday low today was 2,282, hovering around 2,300, down 2.7% in 24 hours. Bitcoin fluctuated between 79,500 and 80,400, with a daily low of 79,270, down 36% from the record low of 126,259 USD in October 2025.
Watching the price has been going on for four days. Looking at the structure, today actually signals something else.
The ETH staking exit queue has dropped from a peak of 282,000 to about 3,500. A reduction of over 99%.
The meaning of this number is straightforward: those eager to exit have already left. The queue represents the stock of "wanting to sell but still waiting in line," and its shrinkage to this extent means those who needed to cut losses have done so, and the rest don’t want to move.
At the same time, altcoin open interest contracts have decreased by about 9 billion USD from their peak. Leverage has also been cleared out.
These two data sets together point to the same conclusion: the source of selling pressure is drying up.
But the price hasn’t risen. Why?
Because there’s no reason to buy. Last week, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 220.7 million USD, with only a weak inflow of 4.4 million on Friday; today, the Ethereum Foundation sold another 2,785 ETH, exchanging for about 6.42 million USD in USDS.
Supply is decreasing, demand hasn’t appeared. This is called "can’t fall further, but can’t rise either."
Bitcoin shows the same pattern: funding rate +0.0054%/8h, still positive, longs are still paying; 24-hour perpetual volume is 32.7 billion, down 26% from the previous day; 24-hour liquidations narrowed to 118 million.
Lower volume, positive funding rate, declining liquidations—this is fatigue, not collapse. A real crash would show negative funding rates and collapsing positions, none of which happened today.
Macro hasn’t given a new direction: Brent at 110.46, gold at 3,991 (down from 4,140 six days ago), 10-year US Treasury above 4.9%. Both safe-haven and risk assets are being sold, only oil is rising—when institutions want cash, they sell the most liquid assets.
My probabilities: grinding between 78,000–80,000 until October 30 options expiry 45%; breaking 78,000 to 75,000–77,000 35%; returning above 82,000 20%. The biggest pain point is at 78,000, nominally about 10 billion.
Discussion: selling pressure is exhausted, so why hasn’t the price risen?
My answer is a bit uncomfortable: because "no one selling" and "someone buying" are two completely different lessons, and the market has only completed the first half.
Poll: What do you think ETH is lacking now—A. A reason to buy it; B. Time, waiting for macro to turn; C. A real panic washout; D. Nothing is lacking, just no one cares.
I choose A. The supply side is already healthy to near perfection, the demand side is blank; this structure is the most frustrating because it doesn’t satisfy either side.
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion. #MarketAnalysis $ETHHeat is rising, but prices are falling: PEPE inflows reach 2.11 trillion tokens, SUI funding rate turns positive but loses the moving average, TAO ETF progresses but no one is buying
The names on the heat list are diverging in three ways
$PEPE rose about 10% in 24 hours, up 20.6% for the week, with market cap returning to $2.08 billion. However, exchange supply increased by 2.11 trillion tokens, reversing over 40% of previous outflows, repeatedly testing resistance without breaking through, RSI fell back to 48.09, MACD turned negative, profit-taking pressure is being realized
$SUI slightly dropped 0.65% in 24 hours, underperforming the market. Funding rate +0.0089%, longs are paying to hold positions, not crowded, but price remains below MA20, with 0.8477 as the next support. Leveraged funds want to push up, but spot buying has not caught up yet
$TAO oscillates between 245 and 255, Grayscale Bittensor ETF S-1 filing has advanced to Amendment No. 2, planning to list on NYSE Arca. But 24-hour volume actually dropped 19%, ETF narrative has not translated into buying, $250 has become a level that needs to be proven
Summary: PEPE depends on whether resistance can absorb exchange tokens, SUI depends on whether 0.8477 support can trigger a funding rate long counterattack, TAO depends on whether $250 has volume support. Heat is rising, prices are falling, divergence itself is a signal.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This Thursday at 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and half an hour later, Powell will hold a press conference. These two time points are more worth watching than the market's ups and downs.
BTC has once again touched $80,000, with ETH weakening in sync. The price repeatedly tests this level, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have secured decisive chips.
Last week, US spot ETFs saw significant inflows and outflows, with considerable volatility. Looking at just one week of inflows and outflows is not enough to judge whether institutional demand is truly improving; such data needs to be observed for at least four weeks to get a sense of direction.
Thursday also has a bunch of hard data packed together: at 20:30, the preliminary annualized Q3 GDP, September core PCE and PCE year-over-year, initial jobless claims, and September personal spending month-over-month will be released; at 21:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by Lagarde's press conference at 21:45. When data is this dense, position sizing is more important than opinions.
By the way, a topic worth mentioning: Israel is discussing using cryptocurrency to cope with potential international financial sanctions, which is quite controversial. On-chain transfers can technically bypass banking intermediaries, but a successful transfer does not mean the money can smoothly enter the real economy.
There are still fiat currency exchanges, commercial banks, counterparties, goods trade, and regulatory requirements in between. Just because the tool is available doesn't mean users can automatically escape real-world constraints; this boundary needs to be explored gradually.
My view is that Bitcoin's payment attribute is overrated; its real work now lies in store of value and cross-border settlement.Three cryptocurrencies, three conflicting capital flows
ETH is stuck near 2,300, but the on-chain scene tells a different story. On October 23, about 169,800 ETH were net withdrawn from exchanges, the largest single-day withdrawal in four months; the staked amount has risen to 43.7–43.8 million ETH, accounting for over 35% of the supply. The foundation's related wallet sold 2,785 ETH at $2,304 on CoW Swap the same day, exchanging for USDS stablecoins, and two weeks earlier transferred another 4,393 ETH to Kraken. More subtly, the Glamsterdam upgrade originally scheduled for testnet launch on October 26 was delayed due to EIP-8037 contract compatibility issues. Sellers are selling, lockers are locking, and freely circulating ETH is decreasing, yet ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding $1 billion in October.
BTC is tugging around 80,000. ETFs had a net inflow of 301 million for the week, but on Thursday there was a single-day outflow of 636 million, followed by another 138 million on Friday, resulting in a cumulative net outflow of 314 million in October. 79,400 was the weekend low, 80,000 is a psychological level, and the real variable is the FOMC: about a 92.8% chance of no change in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to nearly 75%.
SOL repeatedly fails to hold $100. ETFs have had nine consecutive days of outflows, but the number of addresses holding tokenized stocks on-chain has surged to 1.5 million, and Morgan Asset Management has launched a tokenized money market fund on Solana. Traditional channels are withdrawing, while on-chain capital is flowing in. Capital isn’t leaving crypto uniformly — it’s becoming more selective.
On Oct. 23, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw ~$138M in outflows, while Grayscale’s Zcash ETF attracted $20.5M.
One session doesn’t confirm a rotation, but the divergence is worth watching: is capital moving down the risk curve, or simply hedging BTC exposure?Today, an additional $2.15 million margin was added, Hyperliquid $BTC TOP4 longs are adding positions both with and against the trend! 💪
Address 0xf08...9e39e opened a 30x BTC long on 10.23, after today's drop opened another 302.5 BTC, currently holding 795.02 BTC ($63.65 million), entry price $81,168.6, unrealized loss of $878,000.
Additionally, they also went long on ZEC, currently holding 4,717 coins ($5.67 million), entry price 1,195.7.
Considering the current market, BTC is repeatedly tugging at the $80,000 level, with only a few days left until the October FOMC. Although the market bets on a pause in rate hikes, the expectation of "higher rates for longer" combined with Middle East geopolitical disturbances keeps macro liquidity tight. Previously, ETFs saw continuous outflows and concentrated deleveraging, with large funds withdrawing long-term. This kind of "whale adding positions against the trend" is highly strategic—30x high leverage resisting unrealized losses, adding margin is more a defensive move for survival. The linked ZEC long shows a bet on the privacy coin sector, but it strongly resonates with the broader market in the short term.
For ordinary people, a whale's "faith" does not equal a retail "bottom-fishing signal." High leverage is easily crushed in a volatile market. Before the FOMC decision, macro uncertainties remain high. It is recommended to stay away from high-leverage contracts, keep light spot positions defensively, and save ammunition to wait for clear trends without betting on direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $DOOD rose 26% today, and the group chat already started shouting "meme is back," but I replied, let's look at the trading volume first before talking...
On October 21, it surged to 0.005217 with a daily volume of 25.1 million. Yesterday, it was only 570,000, shrinking by 98%. Today it rose 26%, but the volume is still at this level. This is not a capital inflow; this is a small amount of money shaking a plate that no one is catching. It's still 64% below the high on 10.21.
$PEPE is the only one among these three with a positive seven-day return, +10.8%. But on 10/23, it dropped from 0.000005117, with all trapped positions above. Each rebound frees some people, adding another layer of selling pressure. You can only blame Sun Ge for pulling the market...
$DOGE is the most honest. Seven days -3.2%, a steady decline with no volume and no story. It’s no longer the meme leader, more like the tombstone of meme.
Luozi's judgment is that the problem with this round of meme is no new entrants.
And before the FOMC, risk appetite shrinks, altcoins and memes are sold first because holders of these have the least faith. DOOD’s rebound is an opportunity for sellers, not for bottom pickers.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Oil price risks pile up as the FOMC approaches: Will the market trade inflation first or interest rates first?
I lean towards trading inflation expectations first, then interest rate decisions. Oil prices have fallen from a six-month high, but that doesn't mean supply risks have disappeared; more importantly, energy has already entered inflation data: U.S. gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-over-month in September, and the energy component rose 5.2%. So "pause" cannot be directly translated as easing. The October FOMC will be held on the 27th–28th, and the market should pay more attention to how Powell views the impact of oil prices on inflation and how long interest rates will be maintained at a high level.
But I don't take today's oil price fluctuations as trend confirmation. Brent fell from recent highs on Monday; if oil prices continue to decline and the Fed statement is not more hawkish, the market may switch back to growth and liquidity, and BTC may not continue to follow inflation concerns. Between oil prices and crypto prices, there is still the transmission through the dollar and real interest rates.
I will watch three steps: whether oil prices can stop falling and rebound, whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise synchronously, and whether BTC can stand above the 24-hour high of 80,956. If oil prices fall, yields decline, and BTC recovers 80,956 with volume, my "trade inflation first" judgment fails; conversely, if oil prices strengthen again, yields rise, and BTC falls below 79,378, then inflation pressure has transmitted to crypto prices. For now, watch whether oil prices turn from news into sustained inflation input; interest rates are the follow-up, not an independent answer.
$BTC $ETH $CL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Why might countries at war need BTC, yet the global BTC price falls instead?
War can cause local bank service disruptions, currency devaluation, or cross-border transfer restrictions, leading some residents to turn to BTC and stablecoins.
However, global investors may panic sell risk assets, and leveraged liquidations can further amplify the price drop.
Even more paradoxically, war can also cause internet outages, power cuts, and trading restrictions.
BTC can offer an alternative way to transfer assets, but it cannot guarantee that residents in war zones can use it at any time.If they don't raise rates on Thursday, are you ready to bottom-fish?
Right now, everyone in the group is waiting for the meeting at 2 a.m. Thursday. Even the usually most pessimistic ones have started secretly asking if it's time to bottom-fish.
Interest rate futures have already priced in a 90% chance of no rate hike. Many people are treating this as good news, just waiting for the announcement so BTC can surge upward and they can bottom-fish for profits. BTC at 80,000 and ETH at 2,300 have been sideways for almost two days, which really looks like the drop has stalled.
But I have to pour cold water on that. Everyone is focused on whether there will be a hike in October, but no one is looking ahead.
It's very likely there won't be a hike this time, that's true. But what about December? The market is pricing in a 75% chance of a rate hike in December. September just had a round of hikes; rates are now between 3.75 and 4.0. Brent crude oil has dropped from 117 to 114, still weighing on the market, and inflation expectations are at 4.7%.
To put it plainly, this Thursday's meeting is more likely to be "no move this month, we'll see next month," not a dovish pivot.
Think about it: if this were really big good news, would the market have no reaction at all? If someone really knew in advance it was going up, the 80,000 level would have been fought over fiercely already. This kind of indecisive grinding means even big money is waiting; no one dares to move first.
The order book is more telling: $BTC has a bunch of short orders stacked above 80,000, and a long queue at 78,800, 77,600, 76,600; $ETH has clusters of orders at 2,283, 2,266, 2,243, all waiting to be trapped.
If on Thursday there is a spike "because no rate hike," don't rush to follow—it’s a show for you, not a chance to profit.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH New news seen today
Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 Ethereum
And the timing is today
Normally, if the foundation is selling
The price should drop accordingly
But after Ethereum price fell below 2300
It quickly pulled back near 2330
Seeing 2,785 Ethereum seems like a lot
But in the huge crypto market, this amount is actually not much
Instead, it gives many retail investors an illusion
Institutions are selling
Should I sell too? Should I short as well?
What I want to say to everyone: don't be misled by this news
If you are bullish, open a position and set a stop loss, then just ignore it
If you are bearish, similarly open a short position and set a stop loss
My personal view is to go long at the 2300 level
Let me share my thoughts: since institutions are selling, why hasn't there been a big drop? Why would institutions sell at a support level? Why is the news about selling just over 2,000 Ethereum at the support level deliberately released? If Ethereum is expected to drop significantly later, why not sell more now?
Today's news feels more like a smoke screen
A smoke screen to mislead retail investors into shorting #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Cloud previously achieved 82% growth, a figure truly worth noting.
However, I believe the real test of AI commercialization is not how fast revenue grows, but whether the revenue can cover the continuously increasing costs of computing power, data centers, and R&D investment.
If the cloud business continues to grow while profit margins and cash flow also improve, the case for AI commercialization will be much stronger.
If only investments keep increasing but returns lag behind, the market will sooner or later reassess the valuation.
In this week’s earnings report, what I most want to see is a balance between growth and profitability.
#谷歌云业务增长82% #AI投资回报#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
Looking at companies like Strategy that hold a large amount of BTC, I believe we shouldn't just focus on Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
Book profits can be impressive, but what really needs attention are financing costs, debt structure, share dilution, and the ability to withstand BTC price drops.
In a bull market, holding strategies tend to be amplified; when the market weakens, the capital structure better reflects the risks.
For companies related to crypto assets, how much BTC they hold is important, but how they hold it is equally important.
Do you think Strategy's biggest advantage is its BTC exposure or its financing capability?
#Strategy财报前瞻A whale who has cumulatively made a huge profit of 180 million $BTC is currently holding three short positions on major coins, showing an unrealized loss of over 22 million dollars.
The total position size is over 500 million USD. On the surface, it looks like the longs are getting crushed, but when you check the positions, you realize they never intended to exit: 5 to 7 times low leverage, liquidation price set so far away it’s despair-inducing, and meanwhile, they’re aggressively paying funding fees.
Top-tier big players are playing the game of trading unrealized losses for time. As long as the liquidation price is far enough, even large short-term fluctuations are just a drizzle.#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
Samsung's Q3 profits are expected to surge nearly 8 times, with the full financial report soon to be revealed.
Samsung's Q3 profits are forecasted to grow significantly, with AI demand still supporting the memory chip market.
However, I think what deserves more attention than profit growth is: how long can this high growth last?
If AI server demand continues to expand, memory chips may continue to benefit; but if capital expenditures slow down and chip prices peak, the market might price in risks earlier.
The brighter the performance, the more we need to focus on the future, not just the past.
Do you think this AI chip rally is still in its rising phase, or has it already started to overextend expectations?
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍Price stuck near $2300, ETF net redemptions in October exceed $1 billion, and the originally scheduled Glamsterdam testnet upgrade on the 26th has been postponed again. Public opinion is almost unanimously bearish, with waves of pessimism.
However, there is different activity on-chain. About 170,000 ETH left exchanges in a single day, the largest outflow in nearly four months; staking volume remains at a historic high, exceeding 43.8 million ETH.
On the surface, funds are fleeing, but underlying chips are locked. This is not a simple emotional collapse, but a mismatch between short-term redemptions and long-term locking.
What holders really need to distinguish is noise from structure. Price volatility may be turnover or continued pressure. The answer is not in the shouting but in the data.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Let's talk about several highly anticipated popular stocks awaiting earnings reports this week:
$SKHY Hynix's earnings are basically recognized as exceeding expectations, so the stock price's technicals have shown signs of stabilization. Today +1.72%, RSI 37, price 140 has already risen back above MA7.
However, the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, currently showing a volume-shrinking bottoming trend. The earnings report is the day after tomorrow, and the market is likely focused on whether HBM4's market share can hold steady.
$xSNDK SanDisk is in an oversold but not yet rebounded stage. RSI is only 32, and it has retraced 31% from the 30-day high of 1806.
Today's rise is just a technical small rebound above the bottom of the box at 1213, and the volume is only half of the 7-day average, so it won't last. It depends on whether the earnings report the day after tomorrow gives a strong AI SSD guidance.
$HOOD Robinhood has fallen the most thoroughly after its hype faded. The stock price is close to the 30-day box bottom at 3.7%, down 24% from the 30-day high of 123, with MA7 (97) < MA20 (102) < MA30 (106), a standard bearish alignment.
The negative factors of the 7-day challenge period withdrawal wave and shrinking crypto business revenue are still being digested in the stock price, with no signs of bottoming. Instead of catching a falling knife, it's better to wait for the right side.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 【Ancient Whale Awakens, Selling Pressure Increases】
The ancient whale who bought 100,000 $ETH for $31,100 in 2015 has finally moved today. In the past 2 hours, 5,000 ETH were transferred out, of which 1,500 ETH, worth about $3.45 million, have already entered exchanges. The remaining 50,000 ETH have not yet moved, and this is the number the market will truly watch.
He sold half in 2016 at $5.47 each, making about $258,000, and held onto the other half for 11 years. At the current price of about $2,300, the remaining 50,000 ETH are worth approximately $115 million, with early costs almost negligible. Whether he sells now or not, it’s a choice to realize huge profits.
However, transferring to exchanges does not mean they have been sold yet. What can be confirmed now is that 1,500 ETH entered a CEX, and the destination of the other 3,500 ETH cannot be directly identified as selling. What is truly worth watching is that other early ETH holders have recently moved assets, and the market is beginning to face pressure from old players cashing out profits.
At present, this looks more like a selling pressure warning rather than a confirmed dump. Next, watch two things: whether the 1,500 ETH have actually been sold, and whether the remaining tokens continue to flow to exchanges. If deposits continue and ETH weakens significantly, then it indicates that ancient holdings are turning into real selling pressure.🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#DailyOrbit To pour some cold water first, when I see a large long position opened, my first reaction is not bullishness, but how long this position can hold. Core Trader 74 (0x68cb35…02d1e) opened a long on ETH with 25x leverage, with a notional value of about $431,200. This is a newly opened risk exposure, not realized profit; my judgment is that the direction is not the main issue for now, but this leverage has a low tolerance for error.
I’m not in a hurry to get excited for two reasons. First, roughly calculating initial margin by dividing the notional value by leverage, it’s about $17,200; if the price moves against the position by about 4%, losses could approach this margin; the actual liquidation price depends on margin mode, additional funding, and maintenance margin requirements. Second, a single wallet opening a long only shows someone willing to bet on the direction, it doesn’t prove there is sustained buying behind it. If the price doesn’t rise for a long time and then reverses, I speculate the hardest hit will be the high-leverage longs: even if the direction is eventually correct, they may lose the qualification to stay in the market first.
Of course, he might have caught it right. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and there is support after pullbacks, I will put away my doubts about the timing of this long, but I will not endorse a 25x risk-reward ratio because of it. What I will watch next is whether the price can hold steady and whether this address will continue to add to the position; don’t mistake willingness to bet for being right.