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Bitcoin's "U.S. Midterm Election Curse" has appeared four times in a row.
In 2010, BTC dropped 72%.
In 2014, BTC dropped 65%.
In 2018, BTC dropped 52%.
In 2022, BTC dropped 27%.
Four cycles, four significant declines.
But lining up these numbers reveals another detail: the drop percentage gradually shrank from 72% to 27%. The direction hasn't changed, but the magnitude of the pullback is weakening.
So, will it drop again in 2026?
These four historical performances are indeed worth studying, but they are not enough to prove a stable causal relationship between the midterm elections and BTC declines. Interest rates, liquidity, macroeconomics, capital allocation, and the crypto market's own cycles can all affect Bitcoin's price.
The narrowing drop does not necessarily mean the next drop will be smaller. The sample is limited, so past changes cannot be directly taken as future rules.
If you only look at four consecutive drops, it's easy to form panic expectations; if you only look at the narrowing drop, you might underestimate the risk.
Historical trends can help us identify risks but cannot guarantee future repetition. Rather than blindly believing in the election curse, it's better to make a solid trading plan for yourself.#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？
"Coinbase Options Can't Save the Q3 Earnings"
This time Coinbase has integrated Deribit to access options, and many people's first reaction is that the Q3 financial report can turn around.
Just a glance at the market shows Bitcoin recently hovering around eighty thousand dollars, with trading volume shrinking from over five hundred million in a single day to just over two hundred million. The sharp thinning of spot trading fees is the real pressure weighing down.
No matter how big the options ecosystem is, the revenue share is very thin, and the compliance licenses and system integration have to be calculated monthly. Expecting this distant water to immediately put out the nearby fire is simply impossible to reflect in the Q3 performance. $BTC To pour some cold water first, I don't directly take "stablecoins now have a regulatory framework" as a positive signal. On October 24, Canada published a draft regulation on stablecoins in the Canada Gazette, prohibiting issuers from paying direct or indirect returns to holders, requiring non-financial institution issuers to register with the Bank of Canada, keep reserves in banks, and maintain a 1:1 allocation of high-quality liquid assets denominated in the pricing currency, supporting redemption at face value. My judgment: this is about drawing boundaries, not handing out red envelopes to the entire sector.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, the yield restrictions even involve some platform activity rewards; if issuers originally relied on rewards to attract users, then the customer acquisition logic must be recalculated, and ordinary users cannot equate stablecoins with interest-bearing accounts. Second, reserve and registration requirements raise compliance thresholds; if the execution costs for small issuers increase, then participants with ample resources may have an advantage. Interpreting this differentiation as a benefit for the entire industry seems too crude to me.
However, those optimistic might be right: full reserves and face-value redemption requirements do help build trust. But this is still a draft, not equivalent to finalized rules. If subsequent enforcement can both constrain risks and not obviously hinder payment usage, I will put away some of my bearish filters. What I will focus on next are the implementation details and usage demands, not the four words "regulatory benefits."Microsoft after Wednesday's close, one step behind the Federal Reserve.
Microsoft will report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, October 28, the same night as Google.
The market consensus expects earnings per share around $4.71 and revenue about $90.6 billion.
Microsoft's own revenue guidance from July was between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion.
Azure is guided to grow about 45% at a constant currency rate, which is the real test.
The Federal Reserve just finished its meeting that same afternoon.
I think revenue will most likely fall within the guidance, with little surprise upside.
The real stock price drivers are two numbers: Azure growth rate and capital expenditures.
45% is just passing; the market wants acceleration, plus no more bottlenecks in computing power.
If spending is sharply increased but Azure doesn't accelerate, it could replay last week's Meta scenario.
So I won't chase before the earnings report; I'll wait for the numbers.
Invalidation condition: If Azure clearly exceeds 45% and next quarter's guidance is further raised, then my caution is wrong.
Do you think Microsoft this time is "Azure acceleration" or "scary spending"?
$MSFT
#MicrosoftEarnings #USStocks #FOMC[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Robinhood's trading business has surged so fiercely, can it keep the momentum going?
Pharaoh says directly, don't just look at the revenue growth happily; the "hidden risks" behind have already started ticking.
First, let's look at how impressive the report card is. Q3 crypto trading revenue hit $467 million, a year-over-year surge of 300%. Total revenue was $1.27 billion, and net profit nearly tripled year-over-year.
First, extremely dependent on market conditions. Robinhood earns its money from trading fees. This surge relies entirely on the intense volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum from August to October.
Second, facing encirclement from traditional brokers. Charles Schwab just opened direct transfers for BTC and ETH, and BlackRock and JPMorgan are aggressively pushing crypto products.
Third, trouble in its own backyard. Although Robinhood Chain had strong trading volume initially, recent net capital outflows have been severe. The crash of Meme coins has trapped many trend-following players, causing considerable community discontent.
Robinhood is a "thermometer" of retail investor sentiment. Its trading volume surge indicates retail FOMO is still alive; but if its growth slows, it means retail investors are starting to fear a peak and become cautious.
Pharaoh gives you a practical strategy: don't chase Bitcoin just because of one earnings report. Wait for a pullback near 78,000 to buy more Bitcoin, and be a true friend with $1,000/$2,000 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The US stock market is about to open soon, please don't pull it up only to slam it back down tonight. BTC was around 79,300 this morning, barely pulled back to 80,000 in the afternoon, now at 80,347 and starting to consolidate again. ETH at 2,331, SOL at 101.7, both have recovered compared to this morning, but still lack the momentum for a strong rally. Oil prices fell pre-market, and US stock futures aren't reacting strongly either. This week is packed with earnings reports and the Fed meeting, I really can't confidently predict where the money will flow after it returns.
Tonight I want to go long on BTC more, but I'll hold off around 80,300 for now. The 15-minute 20 moving average has risen to 80,298, price is hugging it, but MACD is starting to turn down. Entering now would be tough, even a small dip at the open would be painful. I want to see if anyone will catch it between 80,100 and 80,200. If it really drops, I'm afraid it might break below 80,000, so I'll probably only try a little. Below 79,800 I won't stick around; the afternoon rally has almost been fully given back, no point holding on. If it can reach 80,650, I want to take some profits, but I won't get greedy at 81,000—it's died near there several times before.
I'm less eager to move ETH; the 20 moving average is at 2,327, just underfoot, and 2,330 has been stuck for a while without moving up. I'd rather wait for it to reclaim 2,340, then if it pulls back it can hold, and then consider adding a bit. I'll want to sell between 2,350 and 2,365. I'll leave SOL alone for now; chasing at 101.7, and there's someone waiting to exit at 102.2. Damn, I'll open fewer trades tonight, don't want to fill my positions before the US market even opens.#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek
#FOMC
The focus this week is not just whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes, but what signals the subsequent policy will send.
If the wording leans dovish, BTC may have a chance to rebound; if it emphasizes inflation pressure and hints that high interest rates will persist longer, the market still faces downside risks.
Especially after BTC fell below $80,000, don’t rush to bet on the direction; first, watch if post-meeting capital flows and prices can stabilize.
Are you more optimistic about a rebound this time, or a continued pullback?
$BTC $ETH $IRYSSNOW current price 326.45, 24h +1.0%. Only two real prices traded in these 24 hours, with a three-dollar wick inserted above and below.
08:00 volume 26 contracts (27 times the previous 0.97) surged to 328.1 and closed at 325.1, the three-dollar upper wick fully returned = no one caught above 328.
16:00 volume 44 contracts (largest of the day) reversed to 320.83 and closed at 323.9, the 3.1-dollar lower wick = someone really caught at 320.8.
The 324~328 range between the two wicks is drawn, don’t treat it as support or resistance.
The current price was pushed up at 19:00 using 9 contracts (one-fifth of the 16:00 dumping volume), only 1.65 dollars left to 328.1. The closer to the top of the upper wick, the more you need to watch the money.
1H close above 328.10 with volume (≥15 contracts) → pull back to 327.2~327.6 to go long, stop loss 326.20, target 331.50, odds 3.1.
1H close below 324.00 with volume (≥20 contracts) → rebound to 324.5~324.9 to go short, stop loss 325.90, target 320.83, odds 2.9.
Do not trade between 324~328, the real pricing is at 21:30 when US stock market opens.
$SNOW
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)【市场实时行情】$BTC $79,400–$80,000区间震荡，$ETH $2,300附近，主流币仍在FOMC前低位整理。而大洋彼岸的美股盘后，一份关于“散户交易平台”的财报，给币圈的交易叙事投下了一枚值得细读的信号弹。 👇 先拆Robinhood Q3的核心数据，看清“超预期”和“不及预期”分别在哪： 📈 【整体大盘】总净营收12.74亿美元，同比增长100%，创纪录；净利润5.56亿美元，同比增长271%；稀释EPS 0.61美元，远超市场预期的0.53–0.54美元。从任何角度看，这都是一份强劲的财报。 📉 【加密板块的预期差】交易类营收7.30亿美元，同比增长129%。其中加密营收2.68亿美元，同比增长超过300%，但仍未达到市场预期。分析师此前基于加密牛市和更宽松的监管环境，预期的是超过400%的增长。2.68亿对61亿（去年同期），增速已经惊人，但市场的胃口被吊得更高。 📊 【交易量底色】Q3加密名义交易量800亿美元，涵盖Robinhood App和Bitstamp交易所。股票交易量6470亿美元（同比+126%），期权6.1亿张（+38%），加密是增速最快的Ethereum's funds have been flowing out continuously for the past four weeks. ETH ETFs have been withdrawn for four consecutive weeks, with another $220 million leaving this week.
The money hasn't disappeared; it has moved to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio has been pushed down all the way, making Ethereum a withdrawal machine for portfolio rebalancing.
Supply is still increasing on that side, with batches of staked tokens being unlocked and released, increasing the amount of sellable chips, but the reasons for buyers to step in haven't increased.
On-chain revenue hasn't kept up either; this DeFi cycle hasn't produced any breakout hits, so transaction fees aren't rising.
Therefore, I'm not buying in. Until ETF funds turn positive, even if the price looks cheap when it drops, there's actually no support below. Wait for the funds to turn positive before considering bottom-fishing. #VoiceOfTrading: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard In the crypto space over the years, after going through several cycles of bull and bear markets and witnessing countless celebrations of altcoin seasons and the harshness of altcoin bears, I don't fixate on any single indicator. I adhere to one core principle: altcoins do not have independent market trends; their weakening is often a resonance of liquidity, sentiment, and capital structure. When judging altcoin weakness, the first and most important signals I look at are the following three categories: The first category is abnormal performance relative to the overall market. This is the earliest and most sensitive signal, and also the judgment I rely on most for shorting or topping out. 1. Breakthrough in exchange rate pairs. Core logic: The underlying pricing unit in crypto is BTC. If the overall market is fluctuating or slightly rising, but the altcoin's exchange rate against BTC keeps hitting new lows, it indicates that funds are mercilessly withdrawing from that altcoin, flowing back to BTC or ETH. Exchange rate breakdown is the most ironclad signal of altcoin weakness. 2. False strength when it should be falling. Core logic: When BTC plunges sharply, the altcoin not only doesn't fall but even rallies against the trend. Many newcomers might think the coin is very strong and that the whales are supporting it. Experienced traders see danger: without significant independent positive support, a rally against the trend is most likely to attract momentum followers to take the risk or to maintain appearances before an imminent massive unlock. Once the market stabilizes slightly, it will crash more violently to catch up on the drop. 3. High volume at elevated levelsThe funding flow around Ethereum has been moving outward continuously for the past four weeks. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with another $220 million withdrawn this week. Looking at just one week might not be alarming, but four consecutive weeks of outflows indicate one thing: institutions are reducing their positions at this level, not increasing them.
The withdrawn funds haven't disappeared into thin air; the price ratio makes it clear. The ETH/BTC pair has been suppressed all along, and the action of selling Ethereum to buy Bitcoin is obvious. Ethereum has become the cash machine for portfolio rebalancing. The risk-averse money is flowing into Bitcoin, which is the most straightforward signal.
On the other hand, supply is still increasing. Staked tokens are being unlocked in batches, increasing the amount of sellable chips in the market, but the reasons for buyers to take them on haven't increased. When supply rises but demand remains stagnant, the price can only look for a lower level.
On-chain revenue hasn't kept up either. This round of DeFi hasn't produced any truly competitive blockbuster applications, so transaction fees haven't increased. Ethereum has lost its most tangible valuation pillar. No matter how hot the narrative is, someone actually has to pay on-chain.
So, I’m not buying at this level now. Before ETF funds start flowing back in, the price may look cheap when it drops, but there’s no support below. Catching a falling knife nine times out of ten means catching it in your own hand. Wait until funds really flow back before talking about bottom-fishing. As for my position, I’m just observing and not adding.Regarding stablecoin news, I usually start by asking: why is money willing to stay here? Within the framework of interest rates and funding costs, Canada's draft focuses on defining the boundaries of stablecoins as payment instruments, rather than turning them into interest-bearing accounts.
According to reports, Canada released a stablecoin regulatory draft on October 24, prohibiting issuers from paying direct or indirect returns to holders, including platform activity rewards; requiring non-financial institution issuers to register with the Bank of Canada, reserve 1:1 in high-quality liquid assets, keep reserves in banks, and support redemption at face value. This is still a draft.
My speculation is: if traditional cash instruments still yield returns and holders cannot receive issuer rewards, then the motivation for users to simply park funds will weaken; if interest rates decline, this opportunity cost may shrink. Therefore, I am more focused on how it filters the use of funds rather than viewing it as a new source of funds.
On the other hand, reserves entering banks and supporting redemption at face value means bank custody and redemption chains will become more important, but this does not mean risks disappear. My inclination is that this design favors positioning as a payment settlement tool and may not favor expansion through rewards. What macro factor is everyone most concerned about now: the opportunity cost of holding coins determined by interest rates, or the liquidity status of the banking system?$ETH Today both ETH and SOL feel quite constrained, but the reasons for their constraints are different, so don't get them confused.
ETH is "someone is secretly accumulating, but the ETF is openly selling." In October, the ETF outflow was 1.18 billion, and veterans like Arthur Hayes have fully exited, pressing the price around 2320. On the other hand: staking volume hit a record high, with 35.9% of supply locked up, whales are quietly withdrawing tokens below 2300, and the RSI has already dropped to the oversold zone of 29-35. 2320 is the critical line for ETH; a daily close above it means a false sell-off, but a heavy volume break below points to 2200.
$SOL SOL is "on-chain growth is increasing, but marginal buying is retreating." The price struggles between 100-103, with a 24-hour low touching 98.6. The US spot SOL ETF had a single-day net outflow of 8.51 million, with Bitwise alone withdrawing 5.71 million. More importantly, on-chain activity shows a large holder transferred 240,000 SOL (about 25.3 million USD) to three exchanges within 24 hours, simultaneously closing longs and opening shorts. 100 dollars is the neckline; if the close breaks below it, the next supports are 98.6 and even 80.
My stance: Watch ETH for a close at 2320, and SOL for a close at 100. Do not bottom-fish either; wait for $BTC to give the signal. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 下周BTC只有一件事最重要：79,220能不能守住。其他所有数据，都要围绕这个位置来解读。 先说新闻。用今天的数据作为基准：价格侧，BTC报80,933.5美元，24小时 +1.42%、近一周 -0.30%，20日区间79,220.1到86,693.7——79,220是新的20日低点。资金侧，ETF连续第八天净流入（+2,920万）、5日+2.023亿、10日+2.994亿。情绪侧，恐惧贪婪指数51到54。宏观侧，美元101.81（+0.20%）、黄金4,007.9（-1.29%）、标普500 7,623.68（-0.52%）。 再看资金影响。79,220之所以关键，是因为它是资金与价格的分界线：守住，说明ETF的买盘足以吸收抛压，底部区域成立；跌破，说明宏观压力超过了资金承接，调整会继续。两种情况下，ETF的资金数据都是最重要的验证指标。 对BTC的含义：把下周的判断简化为两个情景——情景A：79,220守住 + ETF持续流入 = 底部区域，可以向86,694修复；情景B：79,220跌破 + ETF转为流出 = 调整延续，下一个支撑看77,000。现在的情况更接近情景A的早期。 富兰克林邓普顿近期在XRP Ledger上增发了约1.5亿美元的代币化货币市场基金份额（sgBENJI），所有新增份额均转入同一个钱包。该钱包目前持有近1.93亿份sgBENJI，按交易记录中每股约1.039美元计算，总值约2亿美元，较此前约4800万份大幅增加。 集中持仓引发关注，但凸显机构需求 新增份额集中于单一钱包值得注意。这可能反映了一位大型投资者或托管机构管理的综合账户，但也凸显了机构对代币化现金管理产品日益增长的需求。富兰克林邓普顿的sgBENJI基金是其Benji平台的一部分，提供基于美国国债的收益型链上敞口。XRP Ledger的低费用和快速结算使其成为此类大额转移的有吸引力的场所。 此举是资产管理公司代币化传统基金以利用区块链流动性和24/7结算的更广泛趋势的一部分。例如，贝莱德在以太坊上的BUIDL基金也出现了大量资金流入。富兰克林邓普顿选择XRP Ledger，既分散了生态系统，也突显了该网络的企业级定位。 对RWA代币化的影响 1.5亿美元的增发表明，代币化货币市场基金正从概念验证迈向有意义的规模。这也带来了运营层面的考量：单一钱包的大额持仓可能带来集中度风险，Nowadays, everyone should be a global landlord, especially a landlord in Tokyo, Japan. If you choose those one-bedroom essential housing units, you can get a 4% annual return, and that's the return after deducting all kinds of expenses.
However, the sad thing is, now you only need to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to achieve this skill, and you can even buy the 10-year ones 😂
The magic of the capital market lies hereCalculate it: a nominal position of $99,800 at 20x leverage corresponds to a margin of about $4,991, which is not equal to the actual invested amount. Core Trader 02 just opened a long $META position; I consider this trade as using less principal to take on larger volatility, rather than "throwing down $100,000."
① Position size is 160.256 units, with a nominal value of $99,817.08. This is the exposure due to price fluctuations, not the wallet balance.
② With 20x leverage, roughly estimated by the reciprocal, a reverse price movement of about 5% approaches the liquidation threshold. The actual liquidation point is also affected by margin mode and maintenance margin, so this cannot be taken as an exact liquidation line.
③ Reference price is $622.8602. This is not a confirmed average transaction price, so I won’t use it directly to calculate position P&L.
My judgment is that the key to this trade lies in how much drawdown the margin can withstand, rather than how large the nominal amount is; next, I want to observe whether the position size and margin are adjusted synchronously.$CL crude oil looks bearish today, 98 is the next battleground
After this round of crude oil rally, I actually want to wait for a rebound to short, with the initial target at 98, and if broken, extend further down.
Previously, the oil price rise was mainly supported by news about the Middle East situation, strait transportation, and rising freight costs. But the more the news is hyped, the harder it is for the price to continue climbing, indicating that the sentiment premium has already been digested at a high level.
Now the market looks more like a repeated tug-of-war at a high level, with increasing pressure above. As long as the rebound can't surpass the previous high, the bulls are only making short-term resistance, not genuinely pushing for a breakthrough.
Moreover, demand is not as strong as imagined; high oil prices themselves suppress consumption, and inventory and macro data do not provide confidence for a sustained surge.
So my approach is to short in batches if the rebound fails to surpass the previous high; the initial target is 98, and if it breaks, look around 97. Quick in and out for the short term, stop loss once the key resistance level is broken, no stubborn fighting.
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Technical level calibration (Sina re-quoted technical analysis, based on the 10/22 writing benchmark; still valid when compared with real-time levels): The S&P has retreated from the historical high of 7,830, with support levels at 7,620 (October low), 7,500 (September low), 7,340 (200-period EMA), 7,300 (July low), and resistance at 7,700 and 7,830; The Nasdaq 100 (futures-based) key levels are 29,240 (currently testing), 29,000, 28,745 (mid-September pre-launch low), 28,190, and 28,000 (around the 200-day moving average). The Nasdaq futures I recorded at 15:15 was 29,087.58—already below 29,240, with the next defense line at 29,000, and below that 28,745. This is the most critical structural information for tech stocks tonight. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC 家人们，BTC在8万附近看着像企稳，但数据不会骗人：64%的净多头仓位建在81,993上方，价格跌破这里之后，比特币多头爆仓8,590万美元，空头才916万。通俗来说多头在割肉，空头在收钱。
QCP给的下方支撑在7.8万，上方阻力8.6万，$ETH 而ETF持有者的成本区就在8万到8.15万之间。这意味着8万这个位置不是底，是持仓者的心理刑场——守不住，ETF那批人也要开始动摇。
期权市场也在用脚投票：1日期的25Delta Skew打到11.3%，下行对冲需求明显升温。聪明钱在买保险，你还在赌反弹？
一句话：FOMC之前，BTC的多头仓位就是空头的提款机。别当那个被提的。$ETH
The Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet upgrade originally scheduled to activate today was canceled by the Ethereum Foundation, with no new date given. The reason is an EIP-8037; ChainSecurity found that its gas billing changes have compatibility and security issues with deployed contracts, involving 13 contracts. This matter is more important here than it looks from the market. If the testnet can't be stabilized, the mainnet schedule will only be delayed.
The market is actually quiet. ETH current price is 2331, 24h low 2293, only down half a percent, the perpetual fee rate is 0.006% lying flat, neither bulls nor bears are pushing hard. Tonight is the FOMC, followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings reports; the whole market's attention is there, and ETH's own bad news barely makes a splash.
Upgrades like this are usually noise; only when they really get stuck do they get priced in. Anyway, I'm not in a hurry to act, I'll wait for it to find its own direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 First, let's pour some cold water and not rush to take "ETH's next round could reach $62,000" as a market forecast. Tom Lee Tracker relayed that Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, when explaining why BitMine wants to maintain maximum Ethereum exposure, said that ETH has risen 50 to 200 times in previous crypto cycles; even with a more conservative estimate of 25 times, the price would be about $62,000. I see this more as an explanation of the holding logic, not a verified target price.
I tend to think the market easily overestimates this statement. One reason is that the historical multiples occurred in past cycles, and calling 25 times "more conservative" does not prove it can be replicated in the next round; changes in base, capital scale, and market environment may cause the multiple to fail. Another reason is that BitMine wants to maintain high exposure and naturally needs to clarify why it is optimistic about ETH. This reasoning stimulates sentiment, but if ordinary users only remember $62,000 and ignore the assumptions behind it, their judgment can easily go astray.
Of course, I don't take it directly as a bearish signal. If we later see Ethereum's actual usage demand continue to grow and capital willing to hold long-term, rather than just discussions driven by target prices, I will reassess this multiple projection. For now, I want to focus on whether the supporting logic can be fulfilled, rather than celebrating the price prematurely. Do you guys lean bullish or bearish on Tom Lee's $62,000 judgment this time? What are your reasons?Update on $PONS key figures:
Daily trading volume: $24M (-4% on the previous day)
Daily trading revenue: $35K
RH market share: N/A
$27K added to buyback and burn vault. 0.017% of TOTAL supply.
Over $200K ready to be deployed for buyback and burns. 0.125% of TOTAL supplyTerm Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.96%, with the first-level pairing scale about $8; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 0.08%. With such a small capacity, shocks will quickly erode the spread.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.76%, with the first-level pairing scale about $991; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 10%. Capacity sets the upper limit.
For $SOL, the marked basis is positive, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quotes are inverted. Near-month annualized is +8.44%, far-month annualized is +0.48%, with the near end more expensive; the marked near-far spread is +0.11%, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote spread is -1.12%. The marked and executable directions are opposite, so trading should not be based on the mark.Azure guidance at constant currency is about 44%–45%, with this quarter's capital expenditure expected to exceed approximately 50 billion. Closed at about 524.51 on Friday. For $MSFT, I won't yet consider the "growth versus spending" as a final answer.
This Wednesday after the US Eastern market close (early Thursday Beijing time), FY27Q1 results will be released.
The company revenue guidance is about 89.85–90.95 billion, Wall Street consensus roughly 90.6–90.7 billion, adjusted EPS about 4.71.
Azure's new growth guidance is about 44%–45% (last quarter restated about 42%); the CFO said in July that this quarter's capital expenditure is expected to exceed about 50 billion, which includes lease accounting, so don't assume it's all cash outflow.
Closed at 524.51 on Friday (about +0.66%, opened about 517.75/high about 525.77/low about 515.70), and closed about 521 on Thursday, down about 2.2%.
I believe Azure demand remains strong, and I think the market will first focus on "how much growth is gained from spending 50 billion," rather than assuming the AI returns are already fully priced in around 524.
Tonight at the US Eastern market open, watch for support around 516–525; if it holds, then look for a move back to about 526–533; if the daily close breaks below about 515.7, expect a move toward about 510/500.
Do you believe more that Azure can cover the spending, or that the spending will first hit the valuation?
$MSFT #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Core Long-Short Logic
Dimension 📈 Potential Support 📉 Dominant Resistance
Macro The probability of the FOMC holding steady in October is about 90%, with no immediate risk of rate hikes in the short term. The probability of a rate hike in December is 80-90%; oil price at $111; risk of US-Iran conflict
Capital Market ETF weekly net inflow of $301 million; retail capital inflow provides short-term liquidity. Cumulative net outflow of $773.5 million in October; retail inflow may include pressure from selling to break even
Technical SMA near 365 has rebounded; low volatility convergence is usually followed by directional choice. Four consecutive daily declines, three consecutive weekly declines; moving averages in bearish alignment; rebound basis is invalid before 80,700 is recovered
Sentiment Fear index at 50, not extremely panicked. The forecast market believes the probability of falling to 87,500 by the end of the month is only 10% $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC at the 80,000 mark broke easily, hitting a low of 79,146 during the session, with four consecutive daily declines and three consecutive weekly declines, which looks quite scary. But what really makes me frown is not the price, but the liquidation structure — 728 million was liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, and BTC itself bore over 234 million in long liquidations. To put it simply, this isn’t someone actively dumping; leverage is lifting itself out. The ETF side is also worrying, with a net outflow of 770 million in two days, mostly from BlackRock and Fidelity, as institutions shrank positions ahead of the FOMC. Ethereum followed the hit, hovering around 2,320, with October ETF outflows exceeding 1 billion, but there’s an interesting contrast on-chain: exchanges saw a single-day net outflow of 170,000 ETH, the largest in four months, while staking remains at historic highs. What’s being sold is what can be sold; what’s locked is not intended to be sold. My stance: I won’t short unless BTC breaks below 79,000; I won’t go long unless it recovers above 81,000. I’m watching closely before the FOMC decision; at this level, volatility can easily hit both sides. #BTC The Ethereum Foundation sold again, and they chose the busiest moment.
On-chain data shows that an address associated with the Foundation, 0x5CB...22059, sold 2,785 ETH through Cowswap two hours ago, which was worth 6.42 million USD at the transaction price. 2,785 ETH is not a small amount; it's a position large enough to create a significant dip in the order book.
What’s more noteworthy is the timing. This address had just topped up ETH on October 12, when the coin price was still 2,534 USD. Looking at today, it has dropped nearly 9%. The calls to buy haven’t stopped, but the sell orders moved first.
The Foundation’s usual explanation is normal treasury management, which is reasonable, but treasury management has one common trait: selling only when it can be sold. When the market pulls back, liquidity remains, and retail sentiment hasn’t collapsed, that’s the best window. If they really wanted to hold long-term, why not wait for a rebound?
For ordinary holders, there’s no need to over-interpret, but two things are worth remembering. First, large addresses always act faster than announcements; on-chain data doesn’t lie. Second, don’t use the fact that institutions don’t sell as a reason not to cut your losses.
Check the current price position yourself by opening the candlestick chart. The position is yours, and so must be your judgment. The Ethereum Foundation's associated address sold 2,785 ETH two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD, via Cowswap.
This address had just topped up on October 12, when ETH was still at 2,534 USD, and it has dropped nearly 9% since then.
The timing was quite precise—selling when the market was pulling back and there were still buyers willing to take the coins. The treasury management explanation itself is reasonable, but the selling point never lies; announcements may be delayed, but the blockchain never is.$ETH capital flow: BTC has buyers, ETH is still a cash-out machine
BTC ETF sees net inflows, ETH ETF suffers net outflows for the fourth consecutive week. No need for lengthy explanations.
The problem with ETH is not that it’s "falling," but that no one is buying while it’s falling. BTC ETFs have futures and options as buffers, with longer leverage trigger chains; ETH exposure is concentrated in perpetual contracts, so when funds withdraw, marginal selling pressure directly breaks through the price level.
Therefore, the $2,300 line is not a technical level, but an emotional one. ETF outflows are not narrowing; whether it holds or not depends not on analysis but on whether there are real buyers with actual money stepping in.
Watch: ETH ETF single-day net flow this week. If outflows don’t shrink, don’t tell me it’s "oversold."#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The main event is coming this week, everyone is waiting for the Fed's decision 😌.
The current mainstream market view is that the interest rate will most likely remain unchanged this time, holding steady and observing for a while, but this does not mean the hawkish stance is completely over. Previously, CPI and oil prices have shown some upward movement, and many officials are still concerned about whether inflation will be persistent; there is actually quite a bit of internal disagreement.
The key point is not whether to raise rates this time, but the tone of the post-meeting remarks, to see if they leave the door open for a rate hike in December. As long as the wording is somewhat hawkish, the dollar, gold, and the crypto market are all likely to experience volatile swings.
This kind of market environment loves to trigger stop-losses back and forth; if you’re not confident, it’s better to avoid heavy positions and wait for the outcome before deciding the direction—it will be much more comfortable that way.
$2Z #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$SKHYNIX Macro Direction Setting, Narrative Heat: How Did I Respond to SK Hynix's "Three Peak Attempts"?
Today I saw the official Q&A question: "What conditions do you value most when choosing trading targets? And what signals do you use to judge that the market has weakened?" Combining with my current trading of $SKHYNIX, I share my practical logic.
1. Three Core Conditions for Choosing Targets:
1. Macro Direction Setting: When trading any target (even stock tokens), you must watch the overall market sentiment. Today, the Korean stock market opened low and rose high, giving me the macro basis to go long on the semiconductor leader.
2. Narrative Heat: Behind SK Hynix is the hard demand for AI and HBM, plus the expectation of the Q3 earnings report this Wednesday, the heat is very high with ample liquidity.
3. Technical Right-Side Resonance: This morning SK Hynix broke through the early session high with volume, I went long at 971.6 following the trend, never guessing the bottom on the left side.
2. Signals to Judge Market Weakness (or False Breakout):
The official guest said: "When positive expectations are close to being realized, altcoins that remain strong against the trend need to beware of a catch-down." This is very true! Specifically on the chart, I look at these three signals first to judge weakness:
1. Multiple Failed Attempts to Break Higher: Today SK Hynix tried three times to break the 990-995 integer resistance level, all failed, indicating heavy selling pressure above (previous high resistance).
2. Volume-Price Divergence: On the 15-minute chart, price is pushing the peak but volume (VOL) is clearly shrinking, and MACD shows a high-level death cross with red bars turning green, the most typical momentum exhaustion signal.
3. Time Cycle Conversion: Short-term break below EMA9 and EMA21, and break below the early session rising support platform.
3. My Practical Response (Control Your Hands):
In the afternoon session, SK Hynix quickly plunged, my long position went from a floating profit of 200U+ to a floating loss of 100U+.
At that moment, I was extremely anxious, the thought of "can't hold" surged wildly. But I chose to trust the pre-set stop loss at 955.8. Since profit doesn't require knowing what happens next, I closed the software and left the rest to probability.
Answering today's official follow-up question: When judging altcoins/high volatility assets weakening, what signals do you look at first?
My answer: Look at the "volume" and "K-line body" when it hits key resistance levels. Low volume pushing high + long upper shadow is likely a bull trap; high volume breaking support is the real weakness.
What do you think, before the earnings report lands, should we hold or exit during this "pin bar" shakeout market? Welcome to discuss in the comments!
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 To pour some cold water first, daring to use leverage does not mean you have a precise view. Core Trader 02 just opened a long META position with 20x leverage, with a nominal position of about $99,800. I am cautiously bearish on this trade and do not take a large long position as confirmation of direction.
I have two concerns: first, leverage amplifies profits and losses, not judgment. By simple estimation, a reverse fluctuation of about 5% could wipe out the initial margin, and actual liquidation is also affected by margin mode and other factors; second, a single wallet going long only shows willingness to bet, it does not prove that subsequent buying will follow. If the price moves against them, the most painful are those with high leverage who refuse to admit mistakes.
Of course, they might have caught the right direction. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and there is support after a pullback, I will withdraw my bearish view. But these are just my observation conditions. For now, I am more interested in how this position manages risk rather than rushing to admire the courage.BTC Investment Weekly Report | Issue 16 (Exclusive for Long-term HODLing · Large Cycle Analysis) Statistical Period: 2026.10.20 — 2026.10.26 Current BTC Price: 80014 USDT 200-Week Moving Average: 65836 USDT, current price is about 21.5% above the 200-week moving average I. Core Summary This Week Currently, BTC is transitioning from the early bull market phase to the mid-bull market phase. The bullish large cycle foundation is solid, and it has not yet entered the top bubble zone. All core monitoring indicators have not reached the preset sell-off resonance threshold. The short term is a consolidation shakeout during the upward trend; such volatility is normal in a bull market and does not change the long-term holding strategy. Maintain a full base position at 100% without any sell-off or portfolio adjustment, continuously tracking indicators while waiting for the cycle to further evolve. II. Key Indicator Data This Week (Weekly Level · Large Cycle Standard, CBBI uses percentage scale) 1. CBBI: 56 (percentage scale, bubble observation threshold 90) 2. MVRV Z-Score: 0.92 (top resonance threshold ≥5) 3. RHODL Ratio: 1102 (top resonance threshold ≥10000) 4. 200-Week Moving Average: 65836 USDT III. Detailed Cycle Position Analysis From the four core large cycle indicators, the potential for indicator dulling caused by continuous institutional capital inflow has been included in the personal execution plan, but currently all indicators still have a large margin before triggering the top resonance line. CBBI 56 is only at#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My US stock pre-market diary (October 26, 2026): What is the money afraid of, and what is it betting on?
Brothers, this bowl of noodles before the market opens feels uneasy. The index futures look red, but the funds underneath are running faster than rabbits. Don’t just stare at the index; let’s break down where the money is actually moving.
The big market is fake; sector rotation is real. The Nasdaq futures seem stable on the surface, but semiconductors and AI high-flyers are clearly getting hit.
Funds are doing two things:
First, withdrawing from the overcrowded AI computing power chain at high levels. NBIS and CRWV crashed more than 3% pre-market. Musk’s warning made leveraged funds run faster than anyone;
Second, the money hasn’t left the market, it just moved to another place to wait.
Micron, SK Hynix, and these memory chip stocks are actually seeing funds coming in. The logic is straightforward: HBM demand is solid, and after falling so much, it’s a bargain. The pre-market gains in QQQ are all propped up by heavyweights. If you want to see the direction of the attack, the money is betting on pre-earnings risk aversion plus the independent logic of memory.
The most eye-catching are NU and META. NU plunged 23% pre-market; the election results in Brazil exploded, and foreign capital sold off first as a salute.
Don’t catch a falling knife with these stocks; until political pricing is over, any rebound is an escape opportunity. META is even trickier, raising $35 billion in stock financing for AI while stubbornly holding around 657 pre-market.
What is the market betting on? Betting that Zuckerberg’s money burn can produce the next growth curve, but I don’t believe there’s value at this level #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When judging altcoins turning weak, which type of signal do you look at first?
Based on previous experiences participating in $RAVE and $LAB, these kinds of meme coins,
For coins like these, weakening signals actually require observing chip distribution, coin release volume, and major KOL dynamics, all of which can become signals of coin weakness, but these coins are less influenced by traditional macro factors.
For example, rave dropped continuously after ZachXBT's post, but sometimes it doesn't always work, like during the lab period when ZachXBT's post had little impact on Lab.
For coins like $HYPE, you need to pay attention to capital inflow, macro factors, and major KOL statements. For instance, at the very beginning, Hayes posted about selling hype, after which hype roughly dropped from over $70 to over $50.
Altcoins require more attention to chip distribution, coin unlocking, major KOL dynamics, and sentiment. Be cautious of risks! 存储财报夜前，我盯着风险偏好那根弦有没有松 76%的押注，到底是在买增长，还是在买一个不能失手的剧本？ 盘前刷到闪迪29日美股盘后出财报，第一反应不是兴奋，是有点替它紧张。预测图上约76%的资金押它超预期，这个比例本身就很故事感，像全班都认定你会考第一，考到第二都算输。 表面逻辑确实顺：AI数据中心需求还在扩，NAND价格也在抬，公司自己给的收入指引是103亿到108亿美元。但我想提醒的是，市场此刻交易的不是上季度卖了多少，而是下季度指引还能不能继续炸。预期被推到这么高，等于底牌提前亮了，容错空间被压得很薄。 前阵子科技财报季不缺"赢了数字、输了股价"的案例，西部数据就是现成的镜子：业绩和指引都不差，价格照样往下走。所以这次真正的分水岭，不是超不超预期，而是指引里有没有露出利润率见顶、NAND涨价放缓的缝隙。一旦有，那76%的仓位会从买盘瞬间变成卖盘，踩踏不需要理由。 放到我们这边看，半导体是全球科技股的风险温度计，这份报表会直接传导到风险偏好。偏多路径是：数字漂亮，且盘后能扛住抛压往上走，科技情绪稳住，BTC跟着松一口气，ETH和山寨的beta才有条件接棒。偏空路径更值得盯：如果业绩Just now, a big brother in the group asked which platform coin is good to buy now? I sincerely said, frankly, there are three platform coins now: one burns money, one collects rent, and one is being shorted by insiders.
$BNB is the only one going against the trend, up +2.2% in seven days. On October 19, the 37th burn destroyed $1.197 billion, reducing supply to 131.5 million. Q3 revenue was $54.2 million, up 54%. Real money and real supply reduction, no stories. 750 is the half-year top; only after passing it can it be called a breakthrough.
$OKB rose 1.26% today, the only one in the red across the board. But don’t rush, in this market, a little rise is still possible; most of it is driven by macro asset trends, not the exchange’s valuation. If the market doesn’t rise, it won’t move.
$HYPE is the most ironic. In 30 days, it collected over $84 million in fees, accounting for 67.6% of 38 perpetual DEXs, with 97% buyback. But the RWA share dropped from 80% in July to 26%, and surprisingly, 86% of the top 100 traders on the leaderboard are shorting it!
Therefore, I calmly told the big brother that BNB is the only one with active buying pressure; deflation is a hard logic.
OKB has no pricing power; if the market doesn’t move, it can’t move either. But once the market moves, it will definitely be the most valuable one!
HYPE is a good company but a bad stock; it’s highly profitable, but its share is being eaten away by other platforms, so just let Anan and OK pick whichever they want and that’s it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC struggled to hold near support over the weekend. This week features dense inflation data and tech earnings reports, making short-term market moves difficult.
I'm watching $80,133: this level has been tested 6 times, held 4 times, broken 2 times, and around $6.18 million in liquidations occurred near here in the past 46 hours.
The price is falling, but 24-hour open interest has increased by 3.9%, indicating shorts are adding positions. If it breaks below here, I'm bearish and won't try to catch the bottom.
Do you think this level can hold through the week? #OKXTraderVoices SK海力士$SKHYNIX will release its Q3 earnings report on October 28, with the financial figures looking like a "money printing machine": revenue approaching 98 trillion KRW, operating profit expected at 77 trillion KRW, soaring several times year-on-year, likely hitting a new historical high again. But the paradox is, despite such explosive performance, its stock price has dropped 52% from the June peak.
The reason is simple: the good news has already been fully priced in by the market. Now Wall Street doesn't care about "how much was earned," only two things matter. First, where exactly is the peak of this storage cycle. Institutions generally believe 2026 will be the peak of this price increase cycle, followed by a high-level plateau period, where pure high profits can no longer drive the stock price. Second, and most critically—the battle over HBM4 is not going well. Because NVIDIA's $NVDA next-generation Rubin chip schedule has been delayed, plus the time needed for mass production tuning, SK海力士's Q3 HBM4 shipments did not meet initial targets, and some capacity was forced to be shifted to regular memory production. On the other hand, Samsung's HBM4 yield has already reached about 80%, and the market share gap between the two has narrowed from 37 percentage points at the start of the year to 17 points, with some institutions even predicting Samsung's shipments will surpass next year. The once absolute leader's throne is starting to shake.
$BTC is much worse off. Dragged down by AI trading concerns and risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, $BTC today directly fell below $80,000, hovering at the lower edge of a nearly one-month consolidation range. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ This week can be called a super macro week. Here's a brief list of major events for quick reference:
1. Tuesday is the Israeli election. The importance of Israel and the US as conjugate partners needs no further explanation. After this week's election and next week's US midterms, many things can proceed once the political situation stabilizes. The short-term importance of this event is top-tier, and the long-term importance is solid.
2. Before 8 AM Wednesday, SK Hynix earnings report. Importance is top-tier.
3. At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve decision, followed by Powell's speech at 2:30 AM. It's almost certain there will be no rate hike in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains a key point of contention. If Powell's speech is dovish and lowers expectations for a December hike, the market will likely rebound accordingly. The importance of this event is solid.
4. At 4 AM Thursday, Microsoft and Google earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. At 9 AM, Samsung earnings report, importance is high. At 8:30 PM, Q3 GDP preliminary and September PCE data, importance is also solid.
5. At 4 AM Friday, Amazon and SanDisk earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. Intel, Strategy, and Coinbase earnings reports and conference calls, importance is high.
6. The Bank of Japan is also very likely not to raise rates on Friday. Importance is high.
Other NPC and less significant news will not be mentioned here.
From the major events listed above, it's easy to see that Thursday is the most likely turning point.
According to the most optimistic expectations, as long as Powell gives a tone like "we'll look at the data again," the narrative for a November rebound could start early.$BTC is moving sideways around 80,313, changing only -0.10% in 24 hours with a 2.0% amplitude. The market basically did not react to this interest rate hike news. Pakistan's rate decision affects the local currency and domestic prices, not touching dollar liquidity nor impacting crypto capital flows. The data aligns: the three-phase funding rate ranges between 0.0017% and 0.0080%, with leveraged longs not adding positions; DVOL is 38.1, and the options market is not paying for large volatility; 24-hour long liquidations are $9.43 million, shorts $9.24 million, nearly balanced. Options open interest put/call ratio is 0.83, and trading put/call ratio is 0.60, indicating more bullish positions. I judge $BTC will continue to consolidate between 79,321.8 and 80,920, and this news won't push a breakout. Bearish reversal condition: break below 79,321.8 with a clear rise in DVOL, indicating other forces entering, requiring a reassessment. Bullish reversal condition: volume surge above 80,920 while funding rates remain positive. $ONDO
Repeated fluctuations around 0.4, how does the underlying product yield transfer to the token?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ONDO's 24-hour price change was -1.80%, ranging from 0.3972 to 0.4127 USDT.
The snapshot is slightly above 0.4, but the integer part is not a guarantee of value. Assets under management, product income, and token holder equity are different links; without connection, the price will still be driven by risk appetite.
If business growth creates a clear holding demand, it can improve revaluation judgment; if only the scale increases but equity remains unchanged, the drawdown should not be directly interpreted as mispricing.#Franklin Templeton Applies for Dividend-to-Bitcoin ETF
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Franklin Templeton launches a new move: buy US stocks, and dividends automatically convert to Bitcoin! Is traditional finance putting BTC into more people's investment portfolios?
Previously, to allocate Bitcoin, you either bought BTC directly or bought spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now, Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton tries a new approach: dividends earned from holding US stocks are no longer taken as cash but automatically converted into Bitcoin-related investments.
1. What’s the difference between these two ETFs?
FBEQ: Mainly allocates to large-cap US stocks, with a strategy similar to a large-cap stock portfolio combined with Bitcoin allocation.
FIBT: Focuses on innovative companies, with a heavier emphasis on tech stocks.
Regarding fees, the latest documents list annual operating expenses of 0.09% and 0.19%, respectively. However, the exact trading start dates for both funds have not been officially confirmed; registration and listing do not mean trading has begun.
2. What does this mean for BTC?
The key is not how large the initial 5% allocation is, but that it attempts to establish a mechanism for continuously gaining BTC exposure. Traditional investors don’t have to actively buy coins with cash each time; they can indirectly access Bitcoin-related assets by holding the fund. If similar products gradually become popular, BTC has the chance to enter more traditional securities portfolios. $BTC $ETH $SOL Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$EWZ large sell cost decreased, buy cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale changed from 1.71%/2.08% to 1.93%/1.79%. Asymmetric change, only discussing execution, not direction.
$ORDER large sell cost increased, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated sell slippage for 100k scale rose from 0.70% to 0.88%. 10k sell still about 0.18%. Depth is deteriorating, same order size is more expensive.
$DOOD after enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage 0.13%/0.15%, 100k is 0.71%/0.90%. Depth is discontinuous at scale, the 100k level is the real execution constraint. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ In short: Relying solely on the old stock and options market's pulse-like growth is hard to sustain; what can truly support its subsequent growth are new curves like event contracts (prediction markets) + Gold subscriptions + overseas expansion, while traditional crypto trading is currently a drag.
1. What is supporting growth now
In previous quarters, the rise in trading revenue mainly came from two parts:
1. The old base: US retail options and individual stock trading. When the market is lively, retail investors rush in to trade options, and volume explodes; once the US stock market fluctuates sideways and the profit effect disappears, retail activity drops sharply. This part is a typical "market-dependent" segment with no autonomous growth ability.
2. The new dark horse: event contracts (prediction markets), which exploded from last year to this year. Q2 single-quarter revenue increased tenfold year-over-year, already filling the gap left by the decline in crypto business, becoming the most elastic part of the trading segment and the new story the market values most.
3. Crypto business: Compared to the previous year's heat cooling down, crypto trading revenue has been continuously declining in recent quarters. Bitcoin market volatility no longer drives this segment as before, and US regulation remains uncertain and looming.Binance listed Predict in the pre-market contracts this afternoon, which is worth analyzing.
Based on the pre-market price and a total supply of 1 billion tokens, the FDV has reached around 1.5 billion USD, with each token roughly priced at 1.5U. This valuation isn't cheap, but it's not outrageous either.
What really catches attention is the points system. The project team allocated a total points pool of about 440 million points. Breaking it down by three common airdrop ratios:
Releasing 5% means each point is worth about 0.17U.
Releasing 10% means each point is worth about 0.34U.
Releasing 15% means each point is worth about 0.51U.
In other words, if you have accumulated 2,000 points, that corresponds to 340U to 1,020U, a threefold difference depending entirely on the final official release ratio.
Some compare it to Aster, whose post-listing performance indeed left room for market imagination. But the two projects have different token distributions and unlocking schedules, and their current liquidity levels are not comparable, so directly applying multiples can be risky.
My judgment is that the pre-market price has already anchored the valuation. Whether it can hold depends on two things: whether it gets listed on spot markets and how much selling pressure there is on the TGE day. The pre-market price has already dropped somewhat, indicating many rushed to get in early.
I personally bought a small position and am waiting for the official airdrop query to open. Despite strong Google Cloud growth in Q2, external bearish concerns remain around heavy AI CapEx, pressure on margins, and uncertainty over Gemini's ability to generate meaningful revenue. Meanwhile, any slowdown in Search could challenge Google's core business.
The key question: Can AI investments deliver enough returns, or will rising costs weigh on profitability? Could $GOOGL disappoint investors even if revenue beats expectations?#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Consensus operating profit is about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, very likely setting a new record again. The core support comes from AI server demand + general storage price increases, with HBM (including HBM4) contributions rising.
But don't treat HBM4 as a "certain super engine." There is industry feedback that Q3 shipments are below some expectations (Rubin progress, tuning), and Samsung is also chasing market share. The real focus is not just "whether it exceeds expectations," but the statements in the conference call about HBM4 ramp-up pace, Q4/2027 guidance, and capacity allocation.
The performance numbers are very likely to look good, but valuation and subsequent expectations will determine the stock price reaction. Personally, I pay more attention to the quality of the guidance rather than the single quarter numbers themselves.