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Market cap only 20 million, yet tied to the trillion-level BTC ecosystem: The valuation recovery logic of CORE
The total market cap of BTC is huge, but the vast majority of BTC is long-term idle. The core story of the BTCFi track is to awaken the dormant BTC liquidity, which is also the fundamental narrative basis for Core DAO's valuation recovery. Currently, CORE's market cap has experienced a significant pullback, and a large part of the pessimistic expectations are already priced into the coin price. From an odds perspective, once the track sees a market rally, CORE, which has BTC staking consensus, has very high valuation elasticity.
There are three main triggers for valuation recovery: First, the overall heat of the BTCFi track warms up, and funds look for BTC staking leading targets; second, the scale of on-chain staked BTC continues to rise, and real on-chain fee income is realized, turning the narrative of "fee buyback of CORE" gradually into real cash flow; third, the trend of node exit is stopped, network security expectations are restored, dispelling market concerns about "soft exit."
However, there are huge obstacles to valuation recovery: the project lacks primary market VC chips as ballast, SatPay is continuously delayed, the partner Mobilum has weak qualifications and cannot quickly bring the expected payment business cash flow, and the risk of continuous withdrawal of independent validators remains unresolved. The track space is at the trillion level, but whether the project itself can capture this dividend is the biggest uncertainty for valuation recovery. The trillion-level BTC ecosystem is the imagination space, while nodes, income, and product implementation are the decisive conditions for whether valuation recovery can be realized.一根针直插78,000，ETH连2,100都没护住，现在是追涨还是洗筹？ 你看到那根针的时候，手有没有抖一下？ 我盯着盘面那会儿的第一反应不是慌，是觉得节奏变了。BTC被单根针直接穿到78,000下方，ETH连2,100都站不稳，24小时全网爆仓8.4亿美元，12.7万人被清出场，最大单笔清算2,849万美元就发生在ETH身上，而且九成以上是多单。这不是普通的回调，这是一次针对杠杆结构的定向清洗。 我更在意的不是跌幅，是爆仓的构成。九成以上是多头被扫，说明前面那波看涨仓位堆得太密、太一致，衍生品市场的多头拥挤度已经到了稍微一推就连环踩踏的程度。这种结构下，价格不需要多大的真实卖压，只要击穿几个关键点位，强平单自己就会把价格往下带。所以那根针更像是流动性猎杀，而不是基本面转向。 偏多的路径也在这里：杠杆被清掉之后，车变轻了，浮筹减少，如果BTC能快速收回78,000上方、ETH重新站回2,100，这轮洗盘反而给后续留了空间，情绪修复会比想象中快。但风险同样清楚——多头刚被重创，信心修复需要时间，反弹如果缩量、站不回关键位，就说明这只是下跌中继，山寨会跟着更难受，风险偏好会进一步收缩。 我$HYPE and $ZEC have always been market barometers in my view. Previously, when Bitcoin was at 87,000, HYPE and ZEC were also the first to weaken. HYPE peaked at 98 and then remained weak in consolidation, while ZEC bottomed near 1700 and then directly broke below the consolidation range. Later, BTC also started to top out and then dropped to around 80,000. Currently, HYPE and ZEC are showing signs of a short-term bottom pullback, especially ZEC, which is now seeing capital support.
Of course, this is not unique to this market cycle. In several previous cycles, whether it was a rebound in a bear market or a pullback in a bull market, HYPE and ZEC would move ahead of BTC in signaling direction. The major holders of these two coins have basically been 100% accurate in judging the overall market trend, making them important references for predicting upcoming market movements. Under the surgical light, the pericardium has already been cut open; the price plunge is just an epicardial bruise, while the real bleeding point lies in hemodynamics: spot trading revenue is like insufficient blood supply from the left anterior descending artery, with a nearly 20% year-over-year decline in Q2. This body temporarily relies on subscription and service revenue of $555 million to maintain collateral circulation. The Q3 results will be released after the U.S. stock market closes; preoperative assessment cannot rely on a single lead, nor can after-hours fluctuations be mistaken for a defibrillator.
First, look at perfusion pressure. If derivatives integration can become a bypass graft, stitching order flow, margin, clearing, and collateral into the same circuit, spot revenue has a chance to recover from low perfusion; if the anastomosis leaks, nominal growth in derivatives will only become a pseudo-recovery with high output and low resistance. Subscription and service revenue is the most stable pacing rhythm currently, but it is not the myocardium itself; stablecoin-related business is like extracorporeal circulation, able to maintain perfusion briefly but masking insufficient ventricular contractility. The financial report is just a preoperative lab test; elevated troponin indicates myocardial damage but does not mean coronary arteries have been reopened.
Next, consider cardiac conduction. The linkage to U.S. stock tokenized assets should be like continuous ECG monitoring, not a single auscultation. Risk appetite before the parent company’s financial report, after-hours volatility, and token premiums may cause conduction delays and ectopic beats; price jumps first do not mean cardiac output has recovered. If the derivatives business can establish three reliable monitoring lines from fees, open contracts, and stablecoin balances, stroke volume may recover; otherwise, spot revenue decline still indicates myocardial stunning, and stablecoin plus subscription income are just pressor drugs—blood pressure remains low after withdrawal. Emotional bottom-fishing is like repeated defibrillation; if rhythm is not corrected, it only increases myocardial oxygen consumption.
Dollar liquidity is preload, derivatives leverage is afterload; imbalance on either end will push seemingly stable cardiac output toward pulmonary edema or low perfusion. Stablecoin business is like an artificial blood vessel—good flow does not mean native vessels are unobstructed; subscription revenue is like a pacemaker, maintaining rhythm but not replacing contractility. Only if integration improves margin efficiency and shortens clearing chains can it be called minimally invasive bypass; if it merely shifts risk from the spot atrium to the derivatives ventricle, it is just moving clots from one heart chamber to another.
The real lesion lies in structure: whether the integrated product matrix can keep trading, clearing, collateral, and dollar liabilities sealed in the same extracorporeal circulation loop. If spot trading revenue continues low perfusion and derivatives plus stablecoin business only contribute accounting collateral, compensation will eventually fail. Postoperative sinus rhythm depends on whether cash flow can form a stable waveform on the monitor; if still relying on stablecoin business for extracorporeal circulation, any sudden price drop is just a precursor to ventricular fibrillation. #coinbaseq3deribitimpact$UNITREE has been quite accurate in its predictions these days, not missing a single one, and I've gained dozens of followers as well. Since everyone is willing to listen, I'll continue sharing.
Originally, I planned to open a position after some time, so why did I open it today? First, I think this price range is very good and meets my expectations. Second, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a relatively weak continuation today, and with reduced volume!! This reduced volume needs to be emphasized. Third, the robotics sector's intraday inflow leader surged sharply, marking a climax, which will trigger the quantitative selling program again. So you can see that the price at which I shorted is today's high.
Let's break down this reduced volume. Why emphasize reduced volume? Because the background is that after nearly a month of decline, the index had its first decent rebound, which must be accompanied by increased volume. Today's reduced volume means money didn't come in, and since robotics is a theme that resonates with the index rebound day, plus the robotics sector has a large capacity, less money makes it harder to push up. Therefore, I believe if tomorrow there isn't strong volume to push it up, and the day after the index still drops, then the expectations for the robotics theme resonating with the index naturally need to be lowered. That's the logic; how much of it you accept is up to you.
So tomorrow is simple: watch if the market shows increased volume, and whether the things that were sold off twice during today's inflow can rebound. If neither of these two points is met, then you can try short positions.
Back to my position: I personally took a 5/1 position and will add more depending on the situation, because tomorrow is expected to be a consolidation day, with direction chosen the day after. But I don't rule out the possibility of going up, so consider it a base position ready to exit or add at any time.The US exchange Coinbase's stock price has dropped 30% this year, with two valuations differing by ten times; one values it at $247, while the DCF only gives $22.
Usually, valuations differ by a few tens of dollars, but this one differs by 10 times. Which one do you trust?
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ The moment the French 10-year government bond yield surged to 5.14%, the high-altitude trough in the European bond market pressed down over the US Treasury—this is not just a normal warming, but a transatlantic frontal merger. The highest level since 2002 and the first time since 2013 surpassing US Treasuries, the French yield curve looks like it has been pierced by a strong convective cloud cluster, with wind shear rapidly intensifying at the long end.
Pulling the German 10-year spread to about 175 basis points, a 15-year high, is equivalent to generating a narrow shear line in the heart of the Eurozone: on one side is a low-pressure trough with rising financing costs, on the other side is warm, moist air with budget negotiation uncertainties. The longer the convergence, the harder it is for localized heavy rain to dissipate. Moody's confirmation of France's sovereign rating with a negative outlook only adds another layer of low clouds beneath the cloud base, and visibility has not immediately improved.
The linkage of US stock token targets seems more controlled by two guiding airflows: US Treasury yields form the background high pressure, while pressure in the European bond market is lateral moisture transport. If the French spread continues to hold, risk appetite will first experience short gusts, trading depth will thin, and price responses to news will shift from "clear-air turbulence" to "frontal precipitation"; but if US Treasuries cool down simultaneously, token targets may also see intermittent clearing rather than continuous heavy rain. The key is whether this 175 basis point shear line will transport Europe's unstable energy along the jet stream into the US stock session.
My on-duty assessment: The French bond market has upgraded from localized strong convection to a frontal cyclone, with the 5.14% yield and 15-year high spread superimposed on the same weather map. The short-term gust warning for US stock token targets has not yet been lifted. #frenchbondyieldstopusThe gold price breaking below 4000 is squeezing out excess liquidity, not a market top.
Gold breaking below 4000 is not a failure of safe-haven logic; it’s liquidity being drained due to U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5%. Don’t be scared by the inflation worries in the news!
Look at $XAUT gold’s recent sell-off. The Middle East situation didn’t hold because funds are flowing into risk-free yields. Inflation expectations from rising oil prices are forcing the Fed to stay hawkish, keeping rates high, so the opportunity cost of holding gold is evident. Plus, with high market volatility, many institutions have to sell gold to raise cash for margin calls—this is a classic liquidity stampede. Central banks are buying on dips for the long term, so deep drops are opportunities, but don’t try to catch falling knives in the short term.
Look at $BTC Bitcoin, the situation is exactly the same. The high-interest environment is suppressing it, and no fresh capital is entering from outside; ETFs are just short-term pulse funds playing quick trades. Bitcoin is now propped up by sentiment, with heavy overhead resistance; without massive liquidity injections, it can’t break through. Holding spot long term is fine, but short term you must guard against pullbacks. If shorting, set stop losses properly—don’t stubbornly hold through losses.
Look at $ETH Ethereum, still the most fragile follower. The ecosystem has no new breakthroughs, and there’s no capital support. When the market softens, it falls faster than anyone else. Don’t mistake sideways trading for stability; if Bitcoin tests lower support, Ethereum’s decline will be amplified. Don’t be cannon fodder. #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 谷歌将在美东时间10月28日盘后北京时间10月29日凌晨公布三季度财报，我个人对这次业绩偏积极。搜索大概率仍有韧性，云收入增速继续超预期，但资本开支和自由现金流是市场关注的焦点。 这次财报，我会把云收入的增长质量和2027年资本开支放在一起看。只看增长，很容易高估短期惊喜；只盯着支出，也可能错过业务正在发生的变化。 但放到股价上问题就复杂了：公司赚到的钱，越来越多要重新投进算力和数据中心，市场需要继续判断，这些投入会在多长时间内带来足够的回报。 市场对这份财报的要求已经很高，谷歌云即使交出90%以上的增长，也未必能带来多少惊喜。 一、谷歌云接近翻倍 目前市场对谷歌三季度总营收的预期约为1279亿美元，同比增长25%；EPS大致在2.94至3.03美元之间。分业务看：搜索预期增长约15%，YouTube广告约11%，谷歌云的最新分项一致预期已经达到291.6亿美元，同比增长约92%。 这个门槛并不低。 摩根大通已经把谷歌云增速预测从88%上调到100%，理由包括更多TPU销售收入。高盛预计云收入295.56亿美元，按去年同期基数计算，增速约95%。公开报道中的美银预测是93%，TruisFriends, CZ and Fidelity recently both said something: the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has actually long been broken.
In the past, everyone was fixated on the four-year cycle, with the underlying logic being the halving. The total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, and now over 19.96 million are already in circulation, leaving very few remaining. The supply shock caused by halving has actually been greatly weakened. Using the old pattern of "rising for one year, falling for three years" to predict bull and bear markets is like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword—it’s futile.
So how should we view what stage Bitcoin is in now?
The core is to focus on two things: the trend of the US dollar depreciation and market sentiment.
Simply put, Bitcoin is now an asset that feeds on macro liquidity. Once the US dollar weakens and fiat purchasing power declines, funds naturally flow into Bitcoin. Plus, whether the market sentiment is hot or not determines if funds dare to come in. As long as the logic of US dollar depreciation holds and the external environment is loose, Bitcoin can take off.
Stop counting down to the next halving every day and pay more attention to the macro environment. The current crypto space competes on sensitivity to liquidity and sentiment.
Friends, do you think the four-year cycle is still valid? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH The US stock market is about to open, I've been staring at the screen all day until my eyes are blurry. I originally planned to shut down the computer and take a shower. But when I checked the backend data, wow, the leverage situation of these popular altcoins directly woke me up from my drowsiness.
$DOGE current price 0.0774, slightly up 1%. Switching to the 4-hour long-short ratio, it's as high as 4.74, nearly 5 times the long-short ratio. Retail investors have basically put all their assets in. The bulls are so crowded they're about to overflow. Even more surprising is that the funding rate is negative, meaning the shorts are paying the funding fee. This kind of extreme sentiment means it's normal for the main players to brutally smash down the price to wash out these leverages.
Looking at $PEPE, current price 0.000004356, down nearly 2%, the trend is half-dead. But strangely, the 4-hour long-short ratio is still 2.95. The price has dropped, and the open interest below has clearly shrunk, indicating that big players and smart money are quietly retreating, but retail investors are still bottom-fishing and adding positions. This scene is too familiar, a typical "fellow villagers don't leave" script.
Finally, looking at $SUI, current price 0.9203, a similar situation. The 4-hour long-short ratio is 2.80, open interest has been steadily declining, and leveraged funds are closing positions and leaving. The current slight rise is purely a breather after too much decline, with no real momentum.
Summary: The biggest illusion in the market right now is that it can't fall further. With the US stock market about to open, it's definitely a perfect opportunity for big money to smash the market and wash out leverage.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#DailyOrbit When I look at institutions going on-chain, I usually set aside the coin price first and see what position it can occupy in the cash management of large funds. On a macro level, interest rates affect the returns on holding cash, liquidity demand influences where funds are willing to stay, and whether tokenization can be implemented cannot bypass these two factors.
According to The Block, Aviva's Aviva Investors has partnered with Ripple to launch a tokenized share class of the Sterling Liquidity Fund on the XRP ledger. The fund size is £22 billion, and Aviva has invested £50 million into the new share class. It is important to distinguish here: this is a new share class, not the entire fund moving on-chain.
My speculation is that if this share class can reduce operational friction for institutions holding and circulating funds, then on-chain infrastructure might enter the daily processes of long-term capital. On one hand, institutional participation provides validation opportunities for actual use; on the other hand, whether funds continue to flow in depends on returns, redemption, and compliance arrangements, and cannot rely solely on the term "on-chain."
Therefore, I tend to see this as progress in institutional capital infrastructure rather than directly labeling it as a positive for $XRP price. There are transmission steps between fund shares going on-chain and how much value the tokens gain. I will focus next on actual usage and capital retention, and will not treat the total fund size as newly added on-chain capital for now. $BTC
79377. This was the 24-hour lowest price of BTC hammered out on OKX last night, Binance's lowest was 79321. The 80,000 level has truly been broken, now it’s bouncing back around 80400.
QCP said this week they are watching the FOMC and tech earnings to set the tone; their support is at 78,000. What I care more about is the differentiation among treasury companies: Strive added 6182 coins last week, with a total position up to 43,000; Strategy didn’t move at all the whole week, not buying a single coin.
Same week, same coin hoarding logic, one quietly adds, the other stops. After breaking 80,000, these companies’ actions are more honest than the candlestick chart.
Breaking an integer level and then pulling back often wears you down more than a direct break through. This week’s news is dense, I tend to watch how others vote and hold off on moving myself.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 0.0022 DOOD, doubling in a day, the group is all shouting "get on board," but I smell a liquidation coming.
No news, no positive catalysts, NFT floor only up 7%, yet DOOD surged from 0.0011 to 0.0026, volume exceeding market cap, negative funding rate at -2%, shorts getting crushed on the ground. Is this a pump by a manipulator giving away money, or a trap dug for you?
Let's look at the surface first: the rise is unsettling.
24-hour increase over 50%, with an extreme single-day surge of 212%, market cap once hitting $38 million, but volume reaching $100-200 million — volume is tens of times the market cap, this is not investing, this is a casino opening a table.
NFT floor price only rose 7%, but the token doubled.
No one is buying NFTs, gamblers are bloodthirsty in perpetuals.
First thing: a surge without news is the most dangerous "good news."
No partnerships, no upgrades, no big influencers hyping, DOOD suddenly pumps 212%.
You think it's leaked good news?
Wrong. A surge without news is essentially liquidity harvesting.
Small cap coins can be doubled with just a few million dollars.
They pump it until you FOMO, chase the high, open longs — then the manipulator dumps chips on you while you stand on the peak enjoying the breeze.
Second thing: negative funding rate is not good news, it's shorts carrying you — but the sedan chair can flip anytime.
Funding rate deeply negative, close to -2% over 8 hours, shorts paying longs, shorts getting liquidated predominantly.
Sounds good?
Not at all.
Negative funding means crowded shorts, shorts getting squeezed, price pushed up.
But it also means longs are extremely crowded.
Once shorts are liquidated and buying disappears, where will the price go but back?
Open Interest significantly rising, negative funding + short liquidations = short-term upward momentum.
But momentum is not a trend.
Negative funding in small coins is a candy followed by a slap.
Third thing: technically, this is a "volume breakout followed by consolidation," not a "bullish quick return."
From 0.0011-0.0014 to 0.0026, volume breakout, short-term overbought.
Support: 0.0020-0.0018 (strong pullback support), stronger at 0.0015-0.0013.
Resistance: 0.0025-0.0028, then 0.0030-0.0035 (previous highs/psychological levels).
Currently at 0.0022, caught between support and resistance.
Failing to break 0.0025 is a false breakout; breaking below 0.0020 means the retracement begins.
Long vs short battle, judge for yourself.
Longs say:
Negative funding, shorts still paying
OI rising, shorts liquidated predominantly
Volume breakout, bottom structure formed
Small cap, pumps fast
Shorts say:
No news surge, pure speculation
Volume exceeds market cap, abnormal turnover
NFT floor only up 7%, fundamentals not following
Longs crowded, no one to catch after shorts liquidate
Treasury tokens potentially pressuring exchanges
Trading strategy
Aggressive short-term:
Hold volume above 0.0022-0.0023 and break 0.0025, light position chasing longs, target 0.0028-0.0032, stop loss below 0.0020. Negative funding is an advantage, but set trailing take profit, don’t be greedy.
Conservative approach (recommended):
Wait for pullback to 0.0019-0.0021 to stabilize then accumulate in batches, stop loss 0.0017-0.0018. Target 0.0026-0.0028, second target previous high.
Short idea:
Break below 0.0020 with volume, or bearish divergence/volume contraction, short on rebound, target 0.0016-0.0015, stop loss above 0.0023.
DOOD now is like the busiest table in a casino —
Winners reluctant to leave, losers trying to recover losses, manipulators taking the rake.
You think you are trading, but actually you are being traded.
A surge without news is not an opportunity, it’s a trap.
$BTC $ETH $DOOD The Deep Integration Behind HBM4: SK Hynix's Moat and Achilles' Heel
SK Hynix's financial report is not just a performance statement but a declaration of the semiconductor industry's division of labor reshaping. Through the release of HBM4, we see not only an increase in storage density but also a fundamental transformation in the cooperation model among memory manufacturers, foundries, and system customers.
The biggest difference between HBM4 and previous products lies in its base, which is no longer a simple DRAM bare die but a logic base die integrated with control functions. This architectural evolution forces SK Hynix to move beyond pure memory manufacturing and deeply bind with TSMC, which masters advanced logic processes. This cooperation is not a simple foundry relationship but a "memory-logic-packaging" system-level alliance.
For SK Hynix, this deep integration is an excellent opportunity to build a moat. When memory products deeply intervene in the customer's system architecture design and even develop customized solutions for specific AI chips, procurement decisions are no longer based solely on price. Customers face high re-verification and adaptation costs when switching suppliers. This high switching cost rescues SK Hynix from cyclical price wars, making its business model more resilient.
However, the flip side of the coin is the exponential increase in delivery risk. In traditional memory sales, Hynix only needs to be responsible for the yield of its own factories; in the HBM4 era, it must be responsible for the coordination of the entire chain.BTC has broken 80,000, and the first to exit this wave are those with leveraged positions.
Over 200 million USD long positions were liquidated in one hour, and 840 million in 24 hours. Spot ETF saw an outflow of 635.5 million during the same period.
ETH, SOL, and XRP all followed the drop; none held up.
What I care about most is not how much it fell, but that the liquidations concentrated in the last few hours: this indicates new positions couldn't hold, not old ones.
Don't rush to bottom-fish in this market. Volatility remains high; a rebound could trigger more long liquidations. Cut contracts to 30% first, keep the spot.
Wait until ETF funds return to net inflow before adding positions again.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Revenue surged 230.8% year-over-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company soared 788.2% year-over-year, with Q2 alone seeing a net profit increase of 1240.8% year-over-year. The gross margin directly rose to 81.63%, with profitability surpassing top-tier foundries like TSMC.
Core growth drivers 💡
It has secured the number one global DRAM market share for two consecutive quarters, with Q2 share reaching 39.5%, outpacing Samsung's lead by 6.2 percentage points, breaking Samsung's 30-plus-year dominance at the top of the DRAM rankings.
As the core main supplier of NVIDIA's HBM4, its 12-layer stacked HBM4 has successfully entered mass production, with yields directly approaching the maturity level of HBM3E. Q2 DRAM blended average selling prices rose sharply by 30% quarter-over-quarter, and NAND flash average prices jumped over 50% quarter-over-quarter.
Combined with the industry tailwind of a 15%-20% quarter-over-quarter increase in storage contract prices in Q4, plus the spot price surge caused by the DDR4 production halt wave, its profitability in the second half of the year will continue to rise. Even though the stock price recently pulled back nearly 30% from its high, the current valuation corresponds to just over 4 times the 2027 price-to-earnings ratio. Supported by an annual EPS growth rate exceeding 24%, the growth certainty is very strong.BTC fell below 80,000, and those using leverage paid the tuition first.
Within one hour, long positions were liquidated for over 200 million USD, totaling 840 million USD in 24 hours.
At the same time, spot ETFs saw an outflow of 635.5 million USD. Institutions are selling, leveraged traders are holding on, and these two forces press in the same direction, so the price naturally finds no support.
ETH, SOL, and XRP all fell together; none could stand out. This indicates that the current issue is not with any single coin but that the entire market's risk appetite is contracting, and even altcoins have no takers.
The ratio between 200 million in 1 hour and 840 million in 24 hours is crucial: most liquidations happened in the recent hours, meaning a batch of newly opened positions couldn't hold, rather than old positions slowly being worn down. Areas with dense new positions are often where people chased the market just as it turned.
The most common mistake at times like this is to mistake a big drop for a buying opportunity. A price drop doesn't mean positions are safe; volatility remains high, and a 3% rebound can still trigger liquidations of long positions.
My own approach is simple: cut contract positions to 30% of usual, leaving only spot holdings. Wait for ETF funds to reverse from net outflow to net inflow before considering adding positions.
Are you waiting to catch the fall now, or watching empty-handed first? $XAU continues today with a review of gold and silver, focusing on clearly explaining their bearish and bullish factors. Recently, gold fell below $4000, and silver dropped to around $54. This round of decline is not due to the disappearance of safe-haven demand but because the Middle East situation pushed up oil prices, causing market concerns about inflation rebounding and the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates. Coupled with the decline in tech stocks triggering some deleveraging, precious metals are under pressure. Silver also faces concerns over industrial demand, resulting in a larger drop.
Upcoming bullish factors: oil prices falling back, the Federal Reserve turning dovish, declines in the dollar and real interest rates, and a recovery in physical demand.
Main bearish factors: inflation continuing to exceed expectations, increased expectations of a rate hike in December, a stronger dollar, and leveraged funds continuing to reduce positions.
Our subsequent trading plan:
Gold support is watched at $3975–$4000, with a rebound target of $4030–$4060. If it falls below $3975 and cannot recover, priority is to reduce positions to control risk.
Silver key support is at $53–$53.5, with a rebound target of $54.5–$55; after breaking through, look to $57–$58. If $53 support fails, do not blindly add positions; priority is to reduce risk.
Currently, long positions held still have unrealized losses, but I will not use the breakeven price as a trading basis. The focus ahead is on the Federal Reserve meeting and PCE inflation data. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The storage sector is a bit strange 🌿: profits keep increasing, but stock prices keep falling harder.
Samsung and SK Hynix have risen 65% and 88% respectively this year, but have pulled back 36% and 52% from their highs, with a 2027 forecast PE of about 3 times.
Bulls: Strong HBM demand, long-term contracts locking customers, profits still growing in 2027, 3 times clearly undervalued ✨
Bears: Storage prices are already at cycle highs, capacity release and profit decline in 2028 is just a matter of time, cheap doesn’t mean cheaper in the future 📉
NVIDIA, Samsung, and Hynix are making huge profits, while Microsoft, Google, and Meta have to bear increasingly high AI capital expenditures. Upstream super profits will ultimately be paid for by downstream business returns ⚖️
Wall Street’s pricing is no longer about how much is earned in 2027, but how long the AI profit feast can continue after 2028 🧠
The earnings reports on 10/28 and 10/29 are the bulls and bears litmus test. Will the bears continue to win? 🤔 $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX $xNVDA $SOL current price is 101.8, short-term bullish, next step is to test the descending trendline at the top. In the past day, the amount of long positions forcibly liquidated was significantly greater than shorts, yet the price closed higher. When it dipped to 99.81, some leveraged longs were liquidated. The subsequent rebound was not driven by short liquidations; the liquidation scale of 890 million in open interest is not large, and no concentrated stampede occurred. There are fewer longs forced to close below, so further drops lack fuel. Funding rates have turned from negative to positive, which should only be seen as a sign of improving sentiment, not a reason by itself. The chart shows lower highs and bearish moving averages, which is correct, but the moving averages reflect the previous downtrend and do not capture this consolidation. Long leverage has just been cleared, and there is no sign of shorts being squeezed; the market structure is lighter than the moving averages suggest. The condition to turn bearish is if the price breaks below 99.81 again, which would indicate that after clearing longs, there are still sellers pushing down, invalidating this judgment.Big institutions are seen hoarding BTC again!
According to the latest SEC disclosure, Strive made a large purchase last week, acquiring a total of 6,182 BTC at an average price of $82,732, which already includes all fees.
As of October 23, this institution holds 43,000 bitcoins, with cash assets of $504.4 million, an increase of $186.9 million compared to a week ago, so they still have plenty of ammunition. They also hold 505,000 shares of STRC preferred stock, valued at about $50.18 million.
At the same time, their circulating shares have changed: 3.266 million new Class A common shares were added, bringing the total to 118.1 million shares; 7 million SATS preferred shares; and the number of SATA preferred shares remains unchanged at 14.03 million.
An interesting point is that their average purchase price of $82,732 is higher than the current market price, meaning they dare to keep buying at a high level. I believe this represents the institution's long-term confidence, but it cannot directly support the market in the short term, so don't blindly follow just because institutions are buying.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Super week kicks off with funds splitting first
FOMC decision lands tomorrow night, CME shows 90% probability of no change, 68.9% probability of a rate hike in December. Macro factors give no clear answer, on-chain funds have already gone their separate ways.
$ETH: Whales are withdrawing, ETFs are pulling out. Three whales withdrew 24,454 ETH from Kraken and Binance over two days, worth $60.68 million; one whale staked after four months of silence, another deposited into Aave. Staked amount is above 43.7 million ETH, accounting for over 35% of supply. ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.18 billion in October, price at $2,344.
$BNB: Burn implemented, resistance ahead. The 37th quarterly burn on October 19 removed 1,646,196 BNB from circulation, worth about $1.197 billion at announcement. Price range $730–$745, $750 is the upper boundary of the range for months; whether it breaks through will determine if the deflation narrative can be priced in.
$XRP: ETF recovers slightly, holders still trapped. Week of October 23 saw a net inflow of $4.25 million into spot ETFs, ending a 13-week consecutive net inflow streak. ETF average entry cost is about $1.72, current price $1.30, unrealized loss about $474 million. XRPL repair scheduled for November 4.
Postscript: ETH is a collision between locking and redemption, BNB is supply contraction testing resistance, XRP is ETF slight recovery but price not repaired. What we are waiting for is not direction, but which end macro tightens first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 In the past 24 hours, there hasn't been much activity on-chain. MATIC had a net inflow of about $6.278 million, CELL and WBTC each around two million plus, which is not abnormal relative to the overall market volume. What’s really worth watching is the line showing that since the end of August, whales have cumulatively increased their BTC holdings by 60,000 coins, with total holdings approaching 3 million BTC, indicating that large funds are quietly accumulating, but this is not a short-term signal. BTC current price is 65,000, the daily MACD is still below the zero line, RSI has touched oversold, and the short-term moving averages have formed a death cross, so downward pressure has not been relieved. The CoinGlass liquidation chart shows a large accumulation of long liquidations between 64,000 and 66,000, and the current price is right on the edge, with a significant probability of a downward sweep.
I just put my thermos on the windowsill; the tea I brewed hasn’t cooled yet.
In terms of trading, I’m not chasing longs. I plan to short in batches on the rebound from 65,300 to 65,700, with a stop loss above 66,100. The first target is 64,500; if broken, it will head straight to the liquidation-dense area around 63,800 to 64,000. If there is volume and a stable close near 64,000, then consider a light position to bet on a rebound, with a stop loss at 63,600 and a target back to 65,000. At this position, the risk-reward ratio for shorts is more favorable, so don’t rush to bottom-fish.
$BTC
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
@OKX星球 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Cloud's 82% growth in Q2 2026 essentially represents a high-stakes AI gamble with both high returns and high costs, currently at a critical point where returns are beginning to materialize but financial pressures are also unprecedentedly visible.
📈 On the returns side: AI investments are turning into real cash
· Revenue and profit both explode: Q2 cloud revenue reached $24.77 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $22.4 billion; operating profit surged from $2.826 billion in the same period last year to $8.81 billion, with profit margin jumping from about 20.7% to 35.6%. Growth is mainly driven by GCP’s enterprise AI solutions and AI infrastructure demand, and even excluding the first-time recognized TPU hardware sales revenue, growth still significantly accelerated.
· Demand visibility is extremely high: backlog reached about $514 billion, equivalent to 5 times the annualized cloud business revenue, with more than half expected to be recognized as revenue within 24 months. The number of new customers doubled year-over-year, and existing customers’ actual usage exceeded initial commitments by about 50%.
· Ecosystem metrics confirm penetration depth: Gemini Enterprise now covers nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 companies; Gemini app monthly active users reached 950 million, with daily active users tripling within a year; the model processes 22 billion API tokens per minute.Gold Long and Short Liquidation Dense Zone Exposed, How Are the Top On-Chain Whales Positioning?
Gold price $XAU is currently oscillating around 4015. The liquidation heatmap shows: dense long liquidations near 4003 below, short liquidations around 3.1M near 4040 above, with long and short fuel basically balanced within the 3% range. Once broken or breached, it is easy to trigger chain liquidations that amplify volatility.
Top on-chain whales show differentiation and hedging characteristics in their positioning:
BTC whales continue accumulating, while tokenized gold $XAUT sees large transfers and net inflows to exchanges; some Hyperliquid whales increase GOLD longs while holding crypto shorts to hedge macro risks.
Logically, liquidation zones near term tend to trigger sharp volatility, but whales focus more on long-term hedging under this week's Fed decision and high interest rate pressure, rather than chasing rallies or panicking sell-offs. Spot and ETF long-term demand still provide support; price declines are more driven by leverage and margin.
Trading Suggestions:
In the short term, closely watch the 4000-4040 range breakout direction; if it falls below 4000, lightly go long to wait for liquidation rebound; in the mid-term, follow whales' positioning in batches below the key support at 3950, strictly control leverage and position size, and stop loss if broken. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SNDK: The Q1 FY2027 earnings report will be announced after market close on October 29. Over the weekend after-hours, the price repeatedly tested near 1230, with the contract bottoming at 1194 before quickly rebounding, overall maintaining oscillation above 1230. In the short term, the technicals have not yet broken down. Since the September high of about 1900, the price has been steadily declining, mainly due to two factors: First, Chinese manufacturer CXMT disclosed progress on next-generation DRAM (4F² architecture, etc.), triggering an urgent sell-off across the memory sector. Second, profit-taking after a significant prior rally. It should be noted that CXMT focuses on DRAM, while SanDisk's core business is NAND architecture and enterprise SSDs, with limited direct product substitution, and the market likely overreacted to competitive risks. On the fundamentals side, AI data center demand for high bandwidth (HBF) and enterprise storage remains the core driver. The company has signed multiple long-term NBM agreements covering a significant portion of future bit storage prices and locking in substantial minimum guaranteed revenue, helping to smooth the transition. Market expectations for this earnings report are EPS around $4.6-4.7 billion and revenue approximately $10.6-10.8 billion (company guidance EPS $4.4-4.6 billion, revenue $10.3-10.8 billion). If results beat expectations and positive guidance is given, recent selling pressure may ease, supporting short-term recovery. If results only meet expectations or guidance clues, the stock may continue to oscillate. In the long term, the AI-driven market demand base is currently at a position better suited for waiting for earnings verification before adding positions. Currently, the stock is in a "technical relief + fundamental verification pending" phase; focus on the reaction and volume after the earnings report to confirm.First, a bit of cold water: this matter indeed carries weight, but I think the market is prone to interpreting it as a direct positive for $XRP. Aviva's Aviva Investors has partnered with Ripple to launch a tokenized share class of the Sterling Liquidity Fund worth £22 billion on the XRP ledger, with Aviva investing £50 million into the new share class.
I tend to believe that the news is more significant for institutional adoption of blockchain than for the direct impact on the coin price. There are two reasons: the total fund size does not equal the on-chain scale, so using £22 billion directly to calculate demand is likely an overestimate; having shares on the ledger does not necessarily mean institutions need to hold large amounts of XRP, as there is still a gap between technical implementation and actual token demand based on usage data.
Of course, I could be wrong. If such share classes continue to expand and on-chain transactions indeed bring observable XRP demand, I will revise my judgment. Are you bullish or bearish? Tell me whether you value the fund size more or the actual on-chain usage.Conclusion first: $XRP has another "institutional narrative" today, but the actual on-chain real money is only £86 million.
Ripple and Aviva officially announced today: Aviva's largest fund, the Sterling (GBP) Liquidity Fund (about £22 billion / $29.4 billion), has launched tokenized shares on the XRP Ledger. The real structure: an Ireland-registered UCITS money market fund, assets custodied by BNY Mellon, with only a "digital twin" layer on-chain.
But looking at the digital breakdown: Aviva's two tokenized shares have invested only £86 million (about $116 million) in total, with £50 million subscribed by themselves, a tokenization ratio of only 0.39%. The entire XRPL's RWA is only $642 million, with about 2,900 holders (RWA.xyz).
There is an order of magnitude difference between "institutional on-chain" and "$XRP buying pressure."
$XRP current price 1.2947: 24h -0.2%, 30d -16.4%, still -64.5% from the high of $3.65, market cap $81.9 billion.
Narrative is not the same as capital. How much does 0.39% need to grow to support an $81.9 billion market cap? Will the next large-scale on-chain fund be in the billion or ten-billion range? $XRPHyperliquid trading is shifting from altcoins toward stock-related contracts.
📉 Altcoin volume fell nearly 70%, from $4.108B to $1.254B, with HYPE and ZEC accounting for 46.6%.
📈 Meanwhile, stock-related assets are attracting more volume, signaling a structural shift in trading activity.
Hyperliquid is expanding beyond crypto into traditional financial markets.
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings 周一开盘的沉闷表象下，三个小市值代币正在各自讲着完全不同的故事，而市场几乎用同一套情绪给它们定价。$LAB 从0.044一路滑落后今日勉强回到0.0379，这个反弹幅度看着温和，但拆开成交结构会发现真实资金体量并不大——它做的是多链交易终端，把多条链的数据、下单和仓位管理塞进一个界面，这类工具在链上活跃期极受欢迎，可一旦大盘走弱、链上交易不再爆发，工具型代币就会同步降温。所以接下来0.037这条线才是关键，守住是修复，守不住就是继续探底，别被一根小阳线骗进场。🔍 真正值得盯的是叙事错位。$WLD 在0.466附近，市场其实在同时下注两件事：World App用户数还能不能往上走，以及"证明你是真人而非AI"这件事在AI时代到底值多少钱。虹膜生物识别的争议从未停过，监管态度也依旧模糊，周末没有大消息，它只能跟着大盘晃，波动却明显大于主流币——这恰恰说明它的定价里装着预期，而不是当下的现金流。人群容易把这种波动当成噪音，但它更像是一张关于AI身份验证赛道的期权。 $SLX 则是另一套逻辑。Solstice把芯片工厂的长期使用权拆成链上份额，按季度收租，租金被合约固定锁住，不跟芯片现货每日A one-day delay incurs a penalty starting at 5 million USD.
This spring it was still 1 million USD per day. In a few months, it increased fivefold.
The most expensive thing is not the chip, but time.
Why dare to set this price? Because tenants are not waiting for just a building, but for electricity and the data center to be ready together. A one-day delay means the scheduled training plan idles for a day, losing more money than the penalty. So the contract calculates the cost upfront; if the developer can't bear it, they have to specially buy insurance for delayed delivery.
SB Energy's 10 GW campus built for OpenAI is even harsher. One day late, one day rent waived. After 90 days, the penalty doubles. After a full year of delay, 640 days of rent are waived.
In the next 1 to 2 years, only 50% to 60% of the capacity planned to be launched in the US can be delivered on time.
Penalties have increased fivefold, but half of the construction periods still can't be met. Let's see whose power gets connected first; only their words count.
The most expensive thing is not the chip, but time. $BTC $ETH $SOL What changes will the market see this week? Will the trend continue to drift down or will the bull market start directly???
Personally, I think the volatility this week will be relatively large.
1: First, the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision will be announced early Thursday morning, but the Fed is very likely not to raise rates. Tech stocks should see a phase rebound.
2: Tech stocks are also expected to be quite volatile this week. Google, Samsung, Amazon, SK Hynix, and many others will release earnings reports recently.
3: This week is also the last trading day before the U.S. midterm elections.
If the earnings expectations vary greatly, there could be a rapid sell-off this week. Currently, the 2300 support level is being tested. If it doesn't hold, the market may drop to 2180. But if it holds steady, the target remains 4000. If Bitcoin can hold above 81000, there will be a decent rebound. So, in the short term, pay close attention to around 2350 today. You can look at Bitcoin's daily chart; every rally is preceded by a period of sideways accumulation before the rise.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Institutional buyers of coins first ask not about price fluctuations, but about who holds the keys. On October 5, Grayscale submitted a supplemental prospectus to the SEC, appointing Anchorage Digital Bank as the second custodian for GDOG, while Coinbase Custody remains the primary custodian. This fund currently holds 144,871,236.7167 DOGE, with assets under management of approximately $13.8 million.
The logic behind dual custody is redundancy. Single custody means a single point of failure: hacker attacks, custodian bankruptcy, regulatory shutdown—if any of these happen to the sole custodian, all holdings become vulnerable. Splitting custody between two entities means the risk is no longer concentrated on one party. The numbers in the supplemental filing are worth noting: the new custodian’s liability floor is $5 million, the insurance threshold is $100 million, and the maximum storage limit for a single cold storage address is also $100 million. These three quantitative metrics show that this custody structure is already aligning with Bitcoin ETF standards.
Scale remains a shortcoming. An AUM of $13.8 million is negligible compared to Bitcoin ETFs, and inflows are modest. But another signal has emerged simultaneously: Bitwise has shut down its own DOGE fund, making GDOG the largest Dogecoin product by size in the U.S. market, accounting for over 80% of the total assets of the three $DOGE ETFs, with a fee rate of 0.35%, placing it in the mid-range. Shares are concentrating in the surviving products. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
The boss has something to say
SanDisk released its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the US market closed on October 29. The company expects quarterly revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. AI data center demand and rising NAND prices are the core supports.
But the key to this earnings report is not the revenue, but the guidance and valuation. Comments in the discussion section are accurate: breakthroughs by ChangXin Technology have triggered a collective revaluation of the storage sector. SanDisk is not facing weak demand, but the supply-side competition expectations have changed. If the earnings report cannot provide better-than-expected guidance for the next quarter, or if profit margins are suppressed by ChangXin's expansion expectations, the stock price is likely to remain under pressure.
There is capital playing on the market today; SNDK rose 1.33%, xSNDK rose 1.50%, and the market is waiting for the earnings to materialize.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If semiconductor valuations continue to be re-evaluated and tech stocks remain under pressure, the risk appetite for Bitcoin will also not rise.
There was a waterfall drop last night, now watching if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set stop losses properly on your positions.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Why did Bitcoin soften again to 79,168 over the weekend? Who exactly is dumping the market?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t try to find a "scapegoat". It’s like several people shaking a table together; the soup spills, but you can’t just blame one person for it all. Multiple forces are at play here.
First, ETF funds did pull out. On October 22 and 23, U.S. spot ETFs collectively withdrew about $773 million. This is a real weakening of buying power. But note, U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, so this isn’t the direct culprit for the weekend dump, just the "emotional baseline."
Second, macro risk appetite is suppressed. Middle East tensions, high oil prices, plus worries about AI investment returns are all weighing down risk assets. The FOMC meeting is coming this week, and no one is confident about rate hikes, so funds are hesitant to move.
Third, turmoil in the French bond market and high oil prices act as "amplifiers." When the French bond market is unstable, global risk aversion rises, and Bitcoin gets sold off along with it. Oil price increases stem from Middle East supply risks. Both factors are pressuring Bitcoin.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Don’t guess which candlestick caused the dump; focus on support levels. Breaking 79,160 has breached the psychological 80,000 mark. Now, around 81,000 is short-term resistance, and 79,000 below is the must-hold line for bulls. If that fails, look for support at 78,000.
Remember, the table is being shaken by everyone together, and the orders are waiting to be filled. $BTC $SOL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $DOOD just has a ridiculous spot trading volume of a few thousand, and a contract trading volume of hundreds of thousandsMaking big profits, making big profits! Short positions totaling about $1.29 billion, with two accounts already netting over $353 million 😂
A crypto fund called Abraxas Capital has set up two hedging accounts on-chain with perpetual contracts, exclusively holding short positions. On the books, the combined nominal short positions exceed $1.29 billion, with cumulative profits surpassing $353 million. Approximately $416 million is shorted on Bitcoin, about $405 million on Ethereum, and the peak short position once reached around $1.57 billion. Some dug up old records showing that a year ago these two accounts once had unrealized losses exceeding $200 million, but they held on and have now fully turned profitable.
Some say this looks more like hedging spot inventory positions rather than purely betting on a price drop. But with such scale, whenever the shorts move, the market shakes accordingly. In crypto, big money like this seems to be on a roll when winning and also tough as nails when holding losses—just watching makes your palms sweat.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC The most eye-catching gainer on tonight's leaderboard is $QNT. According to CoinGecko data (Beijing time 10/26 20:15): QNT is priced at $217, up about 19% in 24h, daily range 181.9–221.5, 24h trading volume around $150 million, still trending on hot search lists. BTC is hovering near 80,000, most altcoins are weak, QNT is one of the few large-cap coins bucking the trend with strength.
There is no new announcement from Quant today; the market is still speculating on the September news that The Clearing House selected Quant for tokenized deposit clearing technology, which is expected to open to banks in the first half of 2027; there was also a short squeeze during the session that pushed the price up.
My view: The institutional tokenization narrative is real, but implementation is measured in years. Today’s move is more driven by sentiment and positioning. The current price is still half below the all-time high of 427, the key is whether it can hold above 200; if it fails, this rally is likely to give back gains. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
MicroStrategy stops buying coins, panic or not?
Brothers, I glanced at MSTR before the market opened. Its market cap just surpassed Nasdaq, entering the global top 400. Logically, Seller should be banging the drum to keep buying. But what happened? Last week, only 267 coins were bought at an average price of 82,000. That number used to be just crumbs stuck between Seller's teeth. This week, no purchases at all.
Don't rush to say "BTC is too expensive to buy." The truth lies in the capital flow: in the same week, MSTR spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent on buying coins. The money wasn't less, but the direction changed.
It's not that coins are expensive; it's that the preferred stock dividends are eating through the cash flow. That STR C thing pays a 12% annual dividend, and the more they pay, the more the dollar interest suffocates them. What Seller is doing now is buying back high-interest debt to reduce future fixed expenses, rather than continuing to pour money into coins.
Looking at the pre-market situation: BTC has already dropped below 80,000 today, hovering around 80,200, with risk-off sentiment maxed out before the FOMC. MSTR is pre-market around 141.6, having closed down just over 3% yesterday.
This trend shows the market is also doing the math: your market cap is propped up by coins, coins are falling, you’re not adding positions, so what supports the premium?Elon Musk said something on Sunday, and CoreWeave got pushed down again in pre-market today — down 38% in a month, I don't even dare to touch this stock now.
On Sunday, Musk posted on X that the bond market basically no longer lends money to companies without AI data center revenue, and over 200 new cloud providers (neocloud) are facing "small fish-style death and consolidation." SpaceX won't buy neocloud either.
CoreWeave closed at $54.23 last Friday, and in pre-market it once reported $52.81, even lower than the $53.5 year-to-date low.
Ridiculously, short sellers have already made nearly $1.7 billion on this stock this month, with a short ratio of 23.7% of the float.
Honestly, demand hasn't collapsed; Nvidia's Huang said last week that computing power demand remains high, the bottleneck is financing, not orders, and Goldman Sachs gave a buy rating this month.
But the bond market doesn't buy this story; CoreWeave's unsecured bond yield is already around 15%, the cost of borrowing is clear, no matter how many orders there are, financing must be passed first.
My view is straightforward: the story is not wrong, but the numbers don't add up. Until the bond market eases, any rebound just gives shorts opportunities.
I'll wait to see a rebound above $54.23 before saying the downtrend is over; if it breaks below $52.81, this judgment is void. I'll watch from the sidelines for now.
$CRWV $NVDA
#CoreWeave减持33亿，AI融资风险升温 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #Middle East crude oil transport resumes, why do oil prices remain high? Impact on macroeconomic development? Impact on $BTC trend?
The resumption of Middle East crude oil transport but persistently high oil prices stem from soaring freight insurance, diesel shortages, and geopolitical risk premiums. This creates a "stagflation" squeeze on the macroeconomy: high oil prices push up inflation, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates, suppressing investment and consumption. This channel also transmits to Bitcoin.
It will affect BTC trends, but mainly through monetary policy indirectly rather than direct causation. High oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns, making it harder for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to cut rates or possibly turning hawkish. A high interest rate environment weakens the willingness to hold risk assets like Bitcoin. Recently, Bitcoin has been under pressure near $80,000, coinciding with Brent crude oil surpassing $100 and an upcoming central bank meeting. Historical data shows that when oil prices remain above the annual average line, Bitcoin's upward momentum often slows. However, Binance Research points out that the long-term correlation between Bitcoin and oil is close to zero; the current linkage is more about macro liquidity expectations at play. If oil prices fall due to easing situations, risk appetite recovery may provide a rebound window for BTC; conversely, prolonged high oil prices will continue to suppress its upside potential.Today I came across an on-chain investigation by Bitquery, titled someone asking "Is Dogecoin dead?" The report contains two sets of data, and I stared at them for a while.
First set: In 2026, 87.5% of the $DOGE transferred on-chain were "change" — that is, the small amounts automatically returned by the system during transfers, not real people frequently buying and selling. There is also a custodial wallet with a timer set to transfer a transaction every hour on the hour, and this single wallet accounts for one-fifth of the entire chain's transaction volume.
I used to focus on "active addresses" and "number of transactions," thinking that busyness was a good sign. But this report pulled back the curtain: the chain looks busy, but most of it is machines running accounts in the background. What are the real people doing? Holding, not moving.
There is also a sentence in the report that left a deep impression on me: from 2013 until now, 72% of transactions were concentrated in 2023 and 2024. The people who rushed in have left, but the chain is still running, and miners are still mining.
$DOGE price is now 0.077, and no one in the group is talking about this report. But something that started from memes has survived the most bustling bull market and also the current quietest times, and the people at the bottom haven’t scattered.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
I'm Brother Ci, and I'll analyze it next.
SK Hynix is set to release its Q3 earnings report on October 28. The market data prediction in the screenshot is striking, with 81% of funds betting it will exceed expectations. The market's appetite has been completely raised to the sky.
The logic behind everyone's optimism is very straightforward. AI server demand is still booming, HBM4 mass production is underway, and as the leader in storage chips, profits hitting new highs is almost a sure bet. Look at the market; tokens related to Hynix are still slightly rising, and bullish sentiment is strong.
But I have to pour cold water on this. What does an 81% betting ratio mean? It means expectations are fully maxed out, with no room for error.
The storage sector has been a roller coaster every day, and just a few days ago, there was news about Solidigm suspending its IPO, so the bottom cards have actually been revealed. At the current high valuation, the market is starting to be cautious about pure cash-burning, expansion-heavy hardware stories, and financing pace is slowing down.
Once the earnings report is out, there are two scenarios. First, HBM4 shipments really break records, and profits far exceed expectations. But even so, if the market rallies on the good news, it could be directly hammered down by previously trapped positions, which is the common "good news fully priced in" scenario. Second, if profit growth slows even slightly, or if there is any flaw in the HBM4 mass production pace, this 81% of funds will quickly turn into the main force to sell off. $SKHYNIX $SKHY Robinhood now has 13 lines doing $100M+ annualized.
That’s impressive product velocity. But the market will only reward the multiple if those non-trading engines can carry earnings when volatility cools and rates stop helping net interest.
Q3 is the first clean look at whether the diversification thesis is actually showing up in the P&L or still mostly narrative.
Trading growth is the easy headline. The harder (and more valuable) question is how much of that growth is becoming structural. Trading crypto means guessing every day what Trump will say next, it's really damn exhausting. I was just worried that oil prices would keep rising, then he said he wouldn't attack Iran for now, and US oil briefly dropped to around 101.7, at least giving the market a breather. But I don't dare assume that just because he eased up once, someone will definitely step in to save the drop. He can change his words, but no one will refund the money lost on positions.
I'm actually willing to lean a bit bullish. After all the bad news turmoil, BTC dropped from around 82,000 to the 80,000 range, then this morning it was smashed down to over 79,300 and pulled back, so it really hasn't fallen that badly. But the 80,347 level tonight isn't strong either; the 15-minute 20 moving average is near 80,300, the price is grinding close to it, and MACD has already turned down. If I chase now, I'm afraid the US stock market opening will push it down first; if I keep waiting, I'm afraid it will just rally to 81,000 directly. The annoyance is right here.
I want to first watch 80,100–80,200; if it drops there and someone buys, then I'll try to go a bit long. The position won't be big; below 79,800 I don't want to stick around. Losing the position I barely recovered this afternoon again, there's no point in holding on. If it can bounce to around 80,700, I'll probably sell some first, leaving the remaining position to test 81,000. I'll remember your 78,200 too, but if it really falls there, I'll have to re-examine what happened at that time; I can't just shout “go all in when it hits” from 2,000 points away now. Tonight I'll focus on whether 80,000 can hold; don't let oil prices fall and then my long positions get hit again. People who trade in the rain understand best what "dull knife cutting flesh" means. Have you noticed that the most vulnerable in this round are actually ordinary people making small fixed investments? On day 340, 0.1 USDT is automatically deducted every hour, totaling 804 USDT. Today the account shows -43.67 yuan, a drop of 0.81%. The average price is still hanging at 80898, but the latest price has slipped to 80240. The numbers aren't large, but the feeling of being gently deducted every hour is more wearing than a one-time big drop. I've been staring at this set of numbers for a long time. What’s really worth pondering is not this few dozen yuan of floating loss, but the underlying signal of capital preference: when retail investors are still mechanically adding "0.1U every hour," it means incremental funds are fragmented, slow, and hesitant. This buying method neither creates emotion nor trading volume; it just passively catches the falling price. The market is not trading panic, but "no one is rushing to grab." On the bullish side, this continuous small-scale accumulation often appears near emotional lows. The BTC in the account has slowly grown from zero to 0.0099, the chips are thickening gradually, and once risk appetite warms up, these silent positions will become a base with very little selling pressure. But the risk is also clear: if the price continues to drift down, the psychological account of the fixed investors will collapse first, deductions become a burden, the rhythm stops, which actually confirms weakness. Looking at the transmission again. BTC is grinding near 80,000, ETH and altcoins lack a leading rally, funds prefer to stay in stablecoins to watch rather than spread into high-volatility sectors. Risk appetite is not expanding, only seeking security in contraction. In this environment, chasing the hotToday, focus on recovery, not reversal. Short-term funds are starting to flow back, but the mid-term retreat is not over yet.
BTC spot net inflow over 4 hours is $39.36 million, contract net inflow is $127 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $34.95 million, contract net outflow is $118 million. The 30-day contract net outflow has expanded to $7.82 billion. There is short-term fund replenishment, but mid-term selling pressure remains.
ETH spot net inflow over 4 hours is $24.24 million, contract net inflow is $56.19 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $45.33 million, contract net outflow is $105 million. The 30-day contract net outflow is $8.64 billion, with a retreat scale exceeding BTC, indicating an overall weaker structure.
SOL spot and contract net inflows over 24 hours are $9.86 million and $10.58 million respectively, showing clear short-term strength. The 30-day contract still has a net outflow of $2.05 billion, indicating spot buyers are present, but long-term leveraged funds have not returned yet.
BTC and ETH show short-term recovery, SOL is relatively strong. The 4-hour inflow has appeared, but the 24-hour and 30-day fund structures have not truly reversed. Currently, it is best to hold light positions and observe, avoid going long.